I enjoy the economic breakdown and I agree that it’s great to get production from cheap players, but the Royals and Pirates have had cost controlled players for years. The way I look at it, the White Sox have two ways this can fail – Peavy can fail to produce, or payroll inflexibilty can prevent them from improving in other areas. The Padres have two ways they can benefit from this deal – cheap production from the players they got, or payroll flexibility to make moves and improve. Now it’s easy to use projections or look back in five years and see if Peavy outperformed Poreda/Richard/Russell/Carter, but the second element is very difficult because it varies by team – there is no salary cap. Some teams don’t care if they are over budget, they will overpay for another player. Some teams don’t care if they are awful as long as payroll is low.

The Sox will be paying around $35 million for the top four guys in their rotation next year, a group that stacks up with any team in baseball.

This is assuming Danks finally signs a long-term deal starting at $3-4 million in 2010, $4-5 million in 2011 and $5-6 million in 2012. Reasonable to think (might be conservative but it’s reasonable).

Buehrle, if healthy and with minor regression in successive years until 2012 (assuming he re-ups after 2011, not a foregone conclusion), it’s reasonable to think his year-to-year value would average $17 million.

Let’s put Peavy, if healthy and given some regression with the switch of leagues, right at his contract numbers ($15, $16, $17 M in the three).

Danks seems to have figured it out. He was worth $25 million last year, but let’s say there will be some ups and downs and put him at a $16 million average for the next three years.

Floyd’s a bit of a wild card but he was worth $11 million last year and $15 million so far this year. Let’s say a $14 million average on the next three.

Total it up.

2010: Commitment – $35 million Value – $62 million
2011: Commitment – $40 million Value – $63 million
2012: Commitment – $45 million Value – $64 million

Only one of those pitchers have a history of injuries, and that’s Jake Peavy.

And every one of them have the potential and history of outperforming their contract.

Thome, Contreras and Dotel are off the books after this year, totaling $29 million in freed-up money. And Quentin, Beckham and Ramirez are under control and cheap.

With the trade, no offensive prospects were touched. Neither were Danks and Floyd. And Daniel Hudson, the guy rumored to be in the May deal, also wasn’t traded. He’s currently is shutting down everyone in Double-A.

In other words, the Sox are fine w/r/t payroll flexibility and talent and should be able to field a team with the best rotation in the AL while keeping their payroll at or around $100 million. Not bad.

A minor point that also shouldn’t be forgotten. Peavy will be facing the two worst teams in the AL – the Indians and Royals – 18 times a season where, on average, he will face them seven times a year.

The reason to evaluate this move “as if he were a free agent” is that such an evaluation reflects what the Sox could buy in a free market with the same amount of money.

“If staring pitchers 20% better than average were easy to come buy then you wouldn’t have to give up the package the Sox did.”

You don’t: see the Cliff Lee trade.

http://realfakesports.blogspot.com/2009/07/tim-mccarver-on-peavy-trade-peavy-when.html

Just because 3 pitching prospects Williams traded recently haven’t amounted to much yet, doesn’t mean this was a good deal. Peavey’s on the DL for fuck’s sake.