Comments on: Pettitte and Lowe http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 16:19:59 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Darren http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56098 Darren Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:58:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56098 Why me? :) I was just wondering how you arrived at .13 for the bump up. The estimates in league difference I've seen are usually around 1/2 to a full run. That would certainly change the comparison considerably. Why me? :)

I was just wondering how you arrived at .13 for the bump up. The estimates in league difference I’ve seen are usually around 1/2 to a full run. That would certainly change the comparison considerably.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56096 Eric Seidman Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:46:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56096 Darren, don't worry, I'd also caution against reading too much into the BABIP. As far as bumping his FIP, why don't you bump it up to different intervals and see when it makes sense for Pettitte to be over Lowe? I mean, there is no set conversion rate here, but I do think Lowe can remain an effective pitcher. You could certainly calculate his WAR at different FIPs to see the "break-even" point of sorts. Darren, don’t worry, I’d also caution against reading too much into the BABIP. As far as bumping his FIP, why don’t you bump it up to different intervals and see when it makes sense for Pettitte to be over Lowe?

I mean, there is no set conversion rate here, but I do think Lowe can remain an effective pitcher. You could certainly calculate his WAR at different FIPs to see the “break-even” point of sorts.

]]> By: Darren http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56093 Darren Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:36:41 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56093 Eric, I made a similar argument yesterday about Pettitte. He's in the same neighborhood as Lowe and Burnett, as far as overall production, but is only asking for a 1-year deal. This is a tremendous value for the Yankees, but they seem to want a super-duper deal instead. For his part, Pettitte seems to have learned negotiating from Tim Wakefield. Raymond brings up an interesting point on BABIP, but I would caution against reading to much into that for a few reasons. First, Pettitte has pitched on some pretty poor defensive teams with the Yankees. It's not surprising to me that his best two seasons in BABIP came in front of the fantastic defense in Houston. Second, Pettitte makes up for giving up too many hits (a bit) by holding runners on first remarkably well with his pickoff move. Third, even when you compare these guys by ERA+ rather than runs, Pettitte still comes out to being nearly as valuable. One question, Eric. Is a bump from 3.67 to 3.80 in FIP enough to compensate from moving from the NL to the AL? It sounds awfully low. Eric,

I made a similar argument yesterday about Pettitte. He’s in the same neighborhood as Lowe and Burnett, as far as overall production, but is only asking for a 1-year deal. This is a tremendous value for the Yankees, but they seem to want a super-duper deal instead. For his part, Pettitte seems to have learned negotiating from Tim Wakefield.

Raymond brings up an interesting point on BABIP, but I would caution against reading to much into that for a few reasons. First, Pettitte has pitched on some pretty poor defensive teams with the Yankees. It’s not surprising to me that his best two seasons in BABIP came in front of the fantastic defense in Houston. Second, Pettitte makes up for giving up too many hits (a bit) by holding runners on first remarkably well with his pickoff move. Third, even when you compare these guys by ERA+ rather than runs, Pettitte still comes out to being nearly as valuable.

One question, Eric. Is a bump from 3.67 to 3.80 in FIP enough to compensate from moving from the NL to the AL? It sounds awfully low.

]]> By: Raymond http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56067 Raymond Fri, 12 Dec 2008 12:55:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56067 FIP's nice and all, but Pettitte's BABIP has only twice been below .307. According to BP's Delta Hits tool, he's allowed 142 more hits than expected given the defense behind him over the course of 2700+ career innings, nearly 10 hits per 185 innings pitched. Over the last three seasons, it's been 17 extra hits per 185. I wouldn't have mentioned this normally, but Pettitte has shown a very strong proclivity over his entire career to post sub-par BABIPs and, fluke or not, it's only gotten stronger the last three years. If "true" talent levels are what you seek to establish, isn't a fourteen year body of work enough to determine that Andy isn't so good at preventing balls in play from becoming hits? FIP’s nice and all, but Pettitte’s BABIP has only twice been below .307. According to BP’s Delta Hits tool, he’s allowed 142 more hits than expected given the defense behind him over the course of 2700+ career innings, nearly 10 hits per 185 innings pitched. Over the last three seasons, it’s been 17 extra hits per 185. I wouldn’t have mentioned this normally, but Pettitte has shown a very strong proclivity over his entire career to post sub-par BABIPs and, fluke or not, it’s only gotten stronger the last three years. If “true” talent levels are what you seek to establish, isn’t a fourteen year body of work enough to determine that Andy isn’t so good at preventing balls in play from becoming hits?

]]> By: K-Farn http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56048 K-Farn Fri, 12 Dec 2008 08:41:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56048 The picks still matter, even if it is a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The Yankee lineup is aging fast and there are very few obvious replacements waiting in the wings. I'm not saying the lost pick is the main reason to go with Pettitte over Lowe. But it is just one of several reasons why Pettitte for one year is the better choice. The Yankees are making a mistake if they sign either Lowe or Burnett to 4+ year contracts. The picks still matter, even if it is a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The Yankee lineup is aging fast and there are very few obvious replacements waiting in the wings.

I’m not saying the lost pick is the main reason to go with Pettitte over Lowe. But it is just one of several reasons why Pettitte for one year is the better choice.

The Yankees are making a mistake if they sign either Lowe or Burnett to 4+ year contracts.

]]> By: BaiMianBao http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56047 BaiMianBao Fri, 12 Dec 2008 08:35:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56047 Do the picks still matter? 1st rounder is already gone for CC and the other 1st round pick is protected. Wouldn't the Dodgers just get a supplemental and the Yankees' second round pick? That's not as harsh. Also my understanding is that it would be one of (Burnett or Lowe) and one of (Pettitte or Sheets). So isn't the better comparison there Sheets vs Pettitte? Signing both Lowe and Burnett would lock up the rotation for years to come and freeze out young talent like Hughes and Brackman. I think Cashman wants the flexibility of having an open rotation spot in a year or two for young talent to fill. Do the picks still matter? 1st rounder is already gone for CC and the other 1st round pick is protected. Wouldn’t the Dodgers just get a supplemental and the Yankees’ second round pick? That’s not as harsh.

Also my understanding is that it would be one of (Burnett or Lowe) and one of (Pettitte or Sheets). So isn’t the better comparison there Sheets vs Pettitte? Signing both Lowe and Burnett would lock up the rotation for years to come and freeze out young talent like Hughes and Brackman. I think Cashman wants the flexibility of having an open rotation spot in a year or two for young talent to fill.

]]> By: K-Farn http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56045 K-Farn Fri, 12 Dec 2008 08:04:38 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56045 Also, don't forget that signing Lowe costs a draft pick, whereas signing Pettitte doesn't cost a draft pick. Also, don’t forget that signing Lowe costs a draft pick, whereas signing Pettitte doesn’t cost a draft pick.

]]> By: K-Farn http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56044 K-Farn Fri, 12 Dec 2008 08:02:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56044 Signing Pettitte for one year makes so much more sense than giving Lowe a 4 year contract. Signing Pettitte for one year makes so much more sense than giving Lowe a 4 year contract.

]]> By: scappy http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56008 scappy Fri, 12 Dec 2008 03:02:06 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56008 Don't forget that lowe is a GB pitcher and would have a sub-par infield behind him Don’t forget that lowe is a GB pitcher and would have a sub-par infield behind him

]]> By: Jake http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pettitte-and-lowe/#comment-56007 Jake Fri, 12 Dec 2008 02:55:57 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1695#comment-56007 As a Yankee fan, it sure doesn't feel like Andy's only a half a win less than Lowe. I don't know what his numbers were by the end of the year, but it felt like half his starts were brilliant 8-inning 2-run affairs and the other half saw him knocked out after a mere 4 inning, with little ground in between. As a Yankee fan, it sure doesn’t feel like Andy’s only a half a win less than Lowe. I don’t know what his numbers were by the end of the year, but it felt like half his starts were brilliant 8-inning 2-run affairs and the other half saw him knocked out after a mere 4 inning, with little ground in between.

]]>