Phils, Mets, and Fifth Starter Competition
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.
With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.
Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.
Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.
The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.
With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.
If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?
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Answer to first question: Pedro. Redding, assuming his shoulder is OK, will probably end up in the pen. Which means he would probably be pitching 3+ innings every day fifth day anyways after Pedro goes his 4.
What type of covert operation would it take to get Aroldis Chapman in a Mets uni by April?
As a Phillies fan, I prefer Happ. Park has been a poor starter for several years now.
Um… Redding’s been shut down for the moment. He’ll start the season on the DL, and will likely rehab at least into May. After then, he can be slotted into a long-relief/spot-start role in the ‘pen. Frankly, though, at this point… I’m almost hoping he gets 60-dayed. (The last two slots in the Met pen are making for an interesting horserace as well, with guys like Brian Stokes, rookie flamethrower Bobby Parnell, lefty retread Ron Villone, and sidewinding Rule V pickup Darren O’Day angling for spots… with all more potentially useful than a penned Redding.)
That said… I think I speak for most thinking Met fans when I say we want Niese to win it, and Pedro at the right price (minor-league deal-to-1-million) is still like sirensong. That said, Livan looks like it. (And when I say, “it,” I mean, “a big Cuban Steve Trachsel.”)
I like Happ much better than Park. I live in LA and I saw Park pitch last year – I was not impressed. He’ll be a good addition to the bullpen, though.
Broxton is way more intimidating.
You gotta hope Niese wins it and something develops. You don’t even want Pedro to start long-tossing until June. Wait, see what happens w/ the youngster, and get Pedro later on. Of course, the Dodgers with their tremendous free agent pitching evaluators, will probably snatch him up before that can happen – just to see him back in the jacuzzi bath.
As a Phillies, I love Happ, but I gotta go Park. He’s upped his fastaball velocity considerably, and early signs from camp are good. Cholly loves matchups, so Happ will make for better use in the pen. It’s a great problem to have. When Romero comes back, Park will either be strolling along or Happer will get his shot. Yeah, that’s right, J.A. gotta nickname now, he’s earned it.
On a write-in, I’ll go with Purcey.
As a Phillies fan that is. I don’t actually play for them… anymore..
Happ starting, Park in the pen as a long man. Makes sense to see what Happ can do and keep Park around as long man/insurance. Only mitigating factor is that Park apparently REALLY wants to start, and you can’t easily justify putting Happ in the rotation over him based on Spring numbers, since Park has been slightly better. Still, there’s a few weeks left to sort this out, and the players may make the decision easier than they’re doing now.
As for the Mets, they’re all good choices. I kid. Most logical move seems to be Livan, with Niese getting work in at AAA and hopefully impressing/progressing enough to step in if Livan is who we thought he was. I’d be surprised, given Livan’s numbers this Spring, if the Mets would dump him to take on the Pedro X factor, since they haven’t seen him pitch against anyone but the Netherlands, who made everyone look like Sandy Koufax. If they get rid of Livan for Pedro, and Pedro turns out to be the sad, slop baller he was turning into at the end of last year, then they might feel hard done.
Balfour
Livan. Pedro is done and killed the team last year. He had what 5 quality starts in 21 starts? He averaged nearly a homer a game and The phils wear him out. He stole money from the Mets his last 2+ years here. I think it’s more likely that Livan throws 200 innings and has an E.r.a around 4.50 than Pedro throws 120 inning and has an e.r. under 5. If Livan struggles in the second half you hope Gee or Niese will be ready to take over the 5th spot in the rotation.
I think the likelihood that Livan is a better pitcher than Pedro in ‘09 is something around the odds of 1000 to 1 against. You’re just being silly if you’re convincing yourself that Livan is somehow a decent back-end starter at this point.
HOW ARE TWO TEAMS WITH THE HOPES OF WINNING A WS PICKING OVER THESE SCRAPS TO GIVE THEM 150 IP?
I honestly cant think of another team with a better 5th starter situation. Maybe the Rays or Yankees, perhaps the Giants or Cubs, but 5th starter is a very common weak point for a majority of baseball teams. If your 5th starter can give you 150+ innings of league average pitching, your other positions will pick you up.
And 5th starters dont matter when it matters most: in the playoffs and the World Series.
Bodhizefa says:
March 20, 2009 at 6:57 am
I think the likelihood that Livan is a better pitcher than Pedro in ‘09 is something around the odds of 1000 to 1 against. You’re just being silly if you’re convincing yourself that Livan is somehow a decent back-end starter at this point.
It is? Did you see Pedro pitch last year? He was easily one of the worst pitchers in Baseball. The last time Livan was good was the first half of last year. The last time Pedro was any good was in May of ‘06. It’s not 1999 anymore.
Yeah but Livan was good the first half of last year on smoke and mirrors. He doesn’t strike anyone out, and he was worse than Pedro for most of last year. He amassed a 6.05 era in 180 innings with a 1.67 WHIP. You expect that to lessen pitching a majority of games in the NL east? He also allowed a whopping 257 hits in 180 innings. That’s utterly mind-boggling. Also, Livan was NOT good the first half of last year. He was good for his first 6-10 starts. That’s 1/3 of the season being generous. Plus, he was good for those starts and then proceeded to stink so badly that he still ended up with his year end numbers. Pedro could probably provide more quality but less quantity.
My vote goes to Pedro, Park (was great in his starts last year for the Dodgers) and Broxton.
I cannot imagine a less intimidating name for a pitcher than Bal(l)four. It’s also funnier than other obvious ones like Walker, because it’s a less common name in the general population.
As a Mets fan, I’m rooting for Pedro and Park.
I would like to see what Park has left in him. He upped his fastball by 4 MPH between 2007 and 2008. I don’t think last year was a fluke. I would be interested to find out how he magically got his fastball back though.