Pie In The Face
After suspending Milton Bradley for the rest of the season, the Cubs have made official what was already assumed – they’ll be dumping him on whatever team is willing to take the largest portion of his contract this winter. That will also put them back in the market for an outfielder. Not to throw salt in an open wound, but perhaps they should call the Orioles about Felix Pie.
The busted Cubs prospect is thriving in Baltimore of late, as he’s gotten regular playing time the last five weeks and making it pay off. Since August 14th, Pie is hitting .293/.366/.576, showing patience (12 walks in 112 PA) and power (13 of his 29 hits have been for extra bases) and finally living up to the potential he was known for in the minor leagues. With this late season surge, Pie has raised his overall line for the year to a respectable .258/.326/.436, making him essentially a league average hitter. That’s pretty nifty for a 24-year-old quality defensive outfielder.
Pie’s future in Baltimore appears limited, however. With Adam Jones and Nick Markakis locking down two outfield spots, Pie’s only hope for playing time is to beat out Nolan Reimold for the left field job, or more likely, to find some kind of job-sharing role that gives him a few hundred plate appearances per season. Given his upside, it’s way too early to pigeonhole Pie into some kind of fourth outfielder role, so he’ll likely have more value to another club than he will to the O’s. That makes him a pretty obvious trade candidate this winter.
Perhaps the Cubs won’t want to go down that road again – after all, reacquiring him would be tantamount to admitting that the series of deals that netted them Aaron Heilman was a mistake. But for a team in need of a young, cheap center fielder with upside, Pie is going to be an intriguing option this winter.
10
Weren’t tons of Chicago writers obsessed with how Pie wasn’t a “major league caliber” hitter at age 22?
Of course this is Chicago we’re talking about, where writers are usually wrong often.
Usually wrong often? ;-)
This is the internet, where commenters are usually wrong often as well and grammar takes a holiday.
That said, there are lots of writers in Chicago, they all need stories and they do not tend to be patient with prospects.
I was just busting his balls.
God dammit, I’m left brained.
With the luck the Cubbies have they could reacquire Pie and he would probably look like the Pie he was before in Chicago . Or he could get hurt tripping over a goat. Or Lou might decide to play him at third and put Aramis on the bench.
Whatever the Cubs are doing it hasn’t worked for over 100 years.
Why not trade Scott, move Reimold to DH, and play Pie in LF? Scott’s good, but he isn’t that young–and the O’s aren’t contenders for the next two years. Surely the can get more out of Scott in a trade. And a defensive alignment of Pie, Markakis, and Jones still seems theoretically good, which, with a young pitching staff, could be very valuable the next couple of years.
Or a straight prospect swap. Orioles could definitely use a good, cost controlled pitcher.
Yea, they only have Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton, Arrieta, Johnson, Mickolio, Patton, Berken, Erbe, etc. Who needs a sparse handful of good, young position players when you can add yet another good, young pitcher?
JW – you can never have too much pitching. Besides i) Arrieta is the only non ML player who is close to a starting role and ii) i dont think hernandez or berken are going to be quality starters over a longer period. More starting pitching depth would actually suit them well.
ML ready starting pitching, to be specific. I agree another AA pitcher won’t help at all.
did someone really just scoff at the notion that the Orioles could use another quality pitcher?
What else is interesting is that Pie and Reimold have both been worth 1.1 WAR this year, while Pie has played less and is younger.
UZR doesn’t like Reimold’s defense, although he has a great arm with 7 assists. He made a lot of errors when he first came up, but he is still making the route adjustment from RF to LF. I’m waiting for a Reimold to 1B experiment, but now he’s shut down for the year.
UZR has Reimold’s arm as being 3.2 runs above average this year.
Out of curiosity, what is the 20-80 equivelent of a 3.2 arm?
Its Pi^2/e! I believe…
Pie makes an awesome 4th OF for the O’s. He can play LF and CF, well, and hit bat is coming around. He’s got speed and his bat is coming around nicely. Given Luke Scott’s extreme streakiness and L/R splits, and Jones and Reimold’s injury history, the O’s would be stuck without him. And he has a good attitude about being a platoon/fill in guy, where Bradley has a bad attitude about being, well, Bradley.
I wonder if you can make a similar case for Angel Pagan (whose had more at bats than Pie and has been worth almost a full win better). Of course one can argue that Pagan is 28 though, but he really has never gotten a chance to be a full time starter.
I think it would be a mistake for the Orioles to trade Pie. Adam Jones has not shown the ability to stay healthy, and Pie has been more than adequate as a fill-in centerfielder. Considering the Orioles only real option for the corner IF and DH next year (currently on the roster) is Luke Scott, and since Reimold is not very good in LF, I can definitely see the Orioles hanging onto Pie.
Hmmm… an interesting candidate for the Brewers if they don’t re-sign Mike Cameron.
To give you an idea of what Cubs fans think…
I was at a game late last summer when Jim Edmonds was having his end of career renaissance, and the guy sitting next to me says “The Cubs have to sign this Edmonds guy long term!” I let him know that despite the playoff push it would be a mistake to not give Pie another chance, especially considering that at the time offense was plentiful, Edmonds was a very poor center fielder defensively, and the combination of the two might provide the opportunity for Pie to get some playing time without really having to produce offensively. Everyone around me thought I was an idiot.
To some extent that’s a microcosm of the Cubs experience now. Every year has to be the year, and no more waiting for anything will be tolerated. For me this is a small improvement over the lean years where there was no effort into putting a competitive club on the field, but is making for an amazingly shortsighted view of how it would be best to ultimately succeed in the end.
Another effect of the pressure and scrutiny is that every comment or action is made permanent and remembered forever. Pie got benched and so he was going to be a failure forever. To a lesser degree this happened with Fukudome last year — every time he played Piniella got trashed for it. Really, that’s half of the Bradley problem this year, once things started going poorly the idea that they wouldn’t work out became a self-fulfilling prophecy. No chance to take a step back, let cooler heads prevail, and try again. It is hard to watch.
You guys are both spot on. Cubs management has no patience for prospects because Cubs media constantly bash them on performance on the field NOW not in 2 years. Everyone wants to win now, this year to get the 100-yr old monkey off the franchise’s back. That’s how they end up essentially trading Pie for Heilman who has been letting inherited runners score all season. You know what, as a Cubs fan, who watched the media and management tear down Cory Patterson I see good for Pie that landed in a much better environment. Ironically enough led by former Cubs executive Andy MacPhail. Jim Hendry should be worried about his job after the moves he’s made the last couple years.
The sample size is too small for UZR to mean anything, but Scott appears to be an adequate firstbaseman. So, Baltimore could run out an outfield of Jones, Pie, and Markakis then DH Reimold. But, this won’t maximize Reimold’s value. Ideally Reimold would play in the outfield. In this case, the O’s would have to trade Pie or Reimold. DH’s will be abundant this offseason. Between Sheffield, Vlad, Thome, and others I can’t think of right now, the O’s should be able to fill that hole on the cheap. My guess is that MacPhail will shop Pie, but will only pull the trigger if he can get a MLB ready thirdbase prospect in return. Otherwise, why make a move? Both Pie and Reimold are cheap and, as mentioned earlier, Jones seems injury prone.
Pie for Alex Gordon perhaps? Would the Royals be interested in such a deal?
Gordon seems to have made progress since getting called back up–he has an .864 OPS with 6 BB and 5 K’s in 34 PAs this month
The O’s have Josh Bell already, but there is no way even the Royals would trade Gordan straight up for Pie.
Why wouldn’t the Royals consider trading Gordon for a player who’s a year younger, hits about as well and plays a position that has the perception of being more important defensively (though positional adjustments equate the two)?
I’d think the O’s would want more durability and consistency in any trade candidate. They have Josh Bell and Carolina League MVP Brandon Waring, both big bats, on the way soon.
Excatcher- Bell will spend at least a half-season at AAA next year, and Waring will start at AA. The O’s aren’t going anywhere in 2010, but they are at the point now where should at least be somewhat competitive. Also, the O’s are now only drawing 20,000 per game on a good night–Angelos needs to field a better team next year to improve on this. And Bell is likely not to have much of an impact until 2011 or 2012, with Waring a year behind.
That said, the Orioles have plenty of other needs too. Right now the rotation of Guthrie, Tillman, Matusz and Bergeson could use another arm (yes, there is Arrieta too, but someone will hit the DL at some point); the bullpen has been very weak as well.
ScottW,
Sure, Bell/Waring aren’t ready yet, so if they want to play a 3B who isn’t Ty Wigginton or Melvin Mora, they need to do something for 1-2 years while they see how their newly acquired prospects shape out. But to me Gordon is a big question mark, which is the last thing the O’s need, unless they’re trading another questionable guy like Berken or Hernandez. Pie is too useful to the O’s right now.
Why would it not maximize Reimold’s value to play him at DH? The difference between LF and DH is -10 runs. Reimold looks to be a -10 defender.
And isn’t the point of positions to maximize team value, not individual value?
It’s worth noting that Pie only started hitting very recently after he played himself out of a starting role. He apparently had to work a lot with the batting coach to change his swing and it took over half a season to do it. Could the Cubs waste a roster spot like that?
Reimold’s fielding numbers should improve once his 25% connected Achilles is surgically fixed. He’s played the whole year on it, which almost assuredly limits his range and speed.
And to DavidCEisen it might maximize his value if he still hit as well. Most players hit better when fielding rather than sitting the entire game. It’s similar to hitting off the bench. It takes a while to minimize the impact of that. To place a rookie in that position may or may not affect him mentally
simple answer is yes. the cubs wasted a roster spot on rule 5 pick david patton which easily could have gone to pie. pie would also likely have been a more useful player to have on the roster than say, micah hoffpauir, who really doesn’t have a position.
I think the Cubbies would be better off working on Jake Fox’s defense and giving him some more AB’s as an outfielder. Pie is unbearably inconsistent at the plate; a momentary bout of selectivity doesn’t dispel a minor league career of .45 BB/K, and a +.300 BABIP with a BA in the .250s means we’re looking at Carlos Gomez without the speed. Fox has a proven track record in the minors, and could very well project to be the middle-of-the-order guy for the Cubs. I think they should focus on in-house options if they can, before they let go of another Casey McGehee.
I really can’t see Jake Fox’s OF defense ever being better than somewhere between “abysmal” and “poor”. Unfortunately he’s a corner infielder on an NL team whose two best players are corner infielders…
Riemold has great potential-he has shown stretches of brilliance in lf.He is still learning the position.He is more accurate than pie.He also has more between the ears.Riemold has good instincts for the game.Pie does not.With all his speed,pie is a TERRIBLE baserunner,and still doesnt instinctively make the right throws,and is to flamboyent at times.Riemold is the future for O’s lf.I watch nearly all the O’s games.And Arrieta should be untouchable unless the O’s are blown away by a big ,big deal.
The O’s are playing a young guy with a 25% attached Achilles? Why? So he can lift the team over the magic 74-win threshold?
Would Pie-Jones-Markakis be challenging Tampa (and arguably Seattle) for the mantle of best defensive OF in baseball?
In other news, you’ve got to think the Os might’ve dropped the ball a bit by not looking at shifting Luke Scott earlier this year to a contender. They’ve got OF depth by the bucketload and Scott was having a very noticeable season. You wonder if a basically league-average (perhaps a little better) corner OF could’ve brought back some much-needed pitching.
I’ve enjoyed watching Pie come around, and he seems happy and well-liked on the team. But I think it’s a bit early to say that he’s arrived…he’s posting a .650 OPS in September, and the whole season is just 267 PA.
The point is that Nolan Riemold has to hit the cover off the ball to be valuable with his defensive deficiencies. Pie doesn’t have to have a .900 OPS to be very valuable. Even more to the point is if he ever does hit consistently there’s probably only 5-6 guys in the league who would be able to match his skill set. I’m not sure he’ll ever be consistent, but I like those odds better than Fukadome, Johnson, Bradley, Soriano, Fox, and Fuld that the Cubs are trotting out there instead.
Yeah this past year has been rough as a Cub fan. Not just because of missing the playoffs but it seems like the GM is letting the fans and media run things. The last offseason was absolutely brutal and signing Bradley was actually not even close to the worst part. How they ended up with Aaron Heilman after those succession of trades was mindboggling.
And even though Bradley was turning it around the past few months and giving hope to the next couple of years the fans/media just continued to bash him. The Cubs need a new GM, somebody who won’t be swayed to the voice of the publice so easily.
It continues to amaze me that teams will bring up prospects only to judge them on their first few hundred plate appearances, if that. If a guy has performed well enough in the minors to merit a call-up and his age and scouting report suggest he’s going to be solid, give him the benefit of the doubt and let him develop over the course of a season.
Whatever your logic for giving a guy an opportunity to begin with likely hasn’t changed because he’s struggled. If a guy is supposed to be a legit talent, give him sufficient opportunity to develop in to it. And if you aren’t ready to commit to him, perhaps you should rethink whether or not you’re ready to promote him.
Pie has 568 career PA and a wOBA of .303. He’s young and showing some improvement. But that improvement will have to continue for him to get and more importantly keep a starting job. Age 25 season seems big for him. It would be nice to have a starting job heading into his age 26/27 seasons, because if he flops this year he may run out of chances. If he builds on last year he probably has a nice career ahead.