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	<title>Comments on: Pie the Oriole</title>
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	<description>Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary</description>
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		<title>By: Jim</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-64353</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2009 15:06:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-64353</guid>
		<description>Brian, I don&#039;t really understand what you mean with your projections.  They look now like they were pretty bad projections.  Maybe I am completely misunderstanding your point, but what is the point of bringing up completely off the mark projections from 6 years ago?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian, I don&#8217;t really understand what you mean with your projections.  They look now like they were pretty bad projections.  Maybe I am completely misunderstanding your point, but what is the point of bringing up completely off the mark projections from 6 years ago?</p>
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		<title>By: Greg</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59984</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 20:19:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59984</guid>
		<description>As a very involved Orioles fan, those people that say that the Orioles biggest need is pitching; that couldn&#039;t really be further from the truth. The Orioles are rife with pitching prospects that are a year away from touching the majors. Additionally, aside from those prospects, the Orioles are currently sorting out a pile of pitchers for their starting rotation that include: Guthrie, Uehara, Liz, Penn, Burres, Hendrickson, Waters, Hennessey, Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Tillman, Patton, Albers, Bass, Chiasson, Castillo, Simon, Miller, and Mitchell. You think the Orioles need more pitchers? They don&#039;t, they need better pitchers.

If you want to discuss what the Orioles really need? They need position players, and since all the Orioles have as an answer to their left field situation in a post-Luke Scott world is Reimold and Montanez (both defensive liabilities), Pie makes sense for MacPhail&#039;s game plan as he came at a huge discount at the expense of the Cubs. He may not pan out, but he&#039;s young and has a huge ceiling. He could be the Orioles left fielder for many years.

Bigger still is what happens to the Orioles infield after 2009 since Huff, Roberts and Mora are all free agents, and Scott and Izturis don&#039;t project to be on the team as long term options either.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a very involved Orioles fan, those people that say that the Orioles biggest need is pitching; that couldn&#8217;t really be further from the truth. The Orioles are rife with pitching prospects that are a year away from touching the majors. Additionally, aside from those prospects, the Orioles are currently sorting out a pile of pitchers for their starting rotation that include: Guthrie, Uehara, Liz, Penn, Burres, Hendrickson, Waters, Hennessey, Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Tillman, Patton, Albers, Bass, Chiasson, Castillo, Simon, Miller, and Mitchell. You think the Orioles need more pitchers? They don&#8217;t, they need better pitchers.</p>
<p>If you want to discuss what the Orioles really need? They need position players, and since all the Orioles have as an answer to their left field situation in a post-Luke Scott world is Reimold and Montanez (both defensive liabilities), Pie makes sense for MacPhail&#8217;s game plan as he came at a huge discount at the expense of the Cubs. He may not pan out, but he&#8217;s young and has a huge ceiling. He could be the Orioles left fielder for many years.</p>
<p>Bigger still is what happens to the Orioles infield after 2009 since Huff, Roberts and Mora are all free agents, and Scott and Izturis don&#8217;t project to be on the team as long term options either.</p>
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		<title>By: dave</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59980</link>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 19:22:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59980</guid>
		<description>Pie is a player that I suspect will not live up to his projections. He has poor strike zone judgement (few BB), makes mediocre contact (lots of Ks). He could compensate for this with power, but I don&#039;t see it. He&#039;s listed at only 170 lbs, which makes him one of the lightest ML players. He probably has a bit more pop than the typical 170 pounder, but I see him topping out at 15 HR. To me, Pie is a backup OFer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pie is a player that I suspect will not live up to his projections. He has poor strike zone judgement (few BB), makes mediocre contact (lots of Ks). He could compensate for this with power, but I don&#8217;t see it. He&#8217;s listed at only 170 lbs, which makes him one of the lightest ML players. He probably has a bit more pop than the typical 170 pounder, but I see him topping out at 15 HR. To me, Pie is a backup OFer.</p>
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		<title>By: D Wrek</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59966</link>
		<dc:creator>D Wrek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:49:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59966</guid>
		<description>I keep hearing that Scott is not very good in left (not necessarily all at fangraphs).  But Im not seeing it in the numbers.  He has a positive UZR and I dont have it in front of me, but I could have sworn he had a favorable +/-.  What am I missing?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I keep hearing that Scott is not very good in left (not necessarily all at fangraphs).  But Im not seeing it in the numbers.  He has a positive UZR and I dont have it in front of me, but I could have sworn he had a favorable +/-.  What am I missing?</p>
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		<title>By: Elias F.</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59964</link>
		<dc:creator>Elias F.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:27:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59964</guid>
		<description>This trade can not be viewed in a vaccum.  

Kevin Towers has said that he&#039;s interested in Olsen, something Jim Hendry was well aware of.  Hendry doesn&#039;t have any interest in trading Josh Vitters for Peavy, so he&#039;s worked over the past weeks to accquire the pieces necessary to avoid ditching Vitters.  

If it works out so that Hendry wiggles Peavy from Towers by only unloading DeRosa and Pie (plus Cedeno and Olsen), then hot damn that would be amazing.  Time will tell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This trade can not be viewed in a vaccum.  </p>
<p>Kevin Towers has said that he&#8217;s interested in Olsen, something Jim Hendry was well aware of.  Hendry doesn&#8217;t have any interest in trading Josh Vitters for Peavy, so he&#8217;s worked over the past weeks to accquire the pieces necessary to avoid ditching Vitters.  </p>
<p>If it works out so that Hendry wiggles Peavy from Towers by only unloading DeRosa and Pie (plus Cedeno and Olsen), then hot damn that would be amazing.  Time will tell.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Cartwright</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59963</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Cartwright</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:24:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59963</guid>
		<description>Yes, minor league stats do mean something, and they say that Pie is exceptionally consistent at being below average with the bat
my projections:
year age  ba/ob/sa  woba
2004 18 257/308/378 303
2005 19 268/319/399 315
2006 20 270/317/423 322
2007 21 258/307/402 310
2008 22 265/313/411 318
2009 23 260/309/405 312

He actually is a little better than Corey patterson, who has hovered bwteween 294-311 since 2002. With the plus defense that Pie has showed so far in the major leagues, he&#039;s probably a league-average centerfielder, not as good as Adam Jones, with a bat that will not be playable in a corner.

Garret Olson
2008 22 219/271/311 261
2009 23 218/262/315 257
That&#039;s just bad. He&#039;d have to have an outstanding glove to even sniff the majors.

**Edit - should have read further - apparently there&#039;s more than one Garret Olson, and I was looking in the batting stats.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, minor league stats do mean something, and they say that Pie is exceptionally consistent at being below average with the bat<br />
my projections:<br />
year age  ba/ob/sa  woba<br />
2004 18 257/308/378 303<br />
2005 19 268/319/399 315<br />
2006 20 270/317/423 322<br />
2007 21 258/307/402 310<br />
2008 22 265/313/411 318<br />
2009 23 260/309/405 312</p>
<p>He actually is a little better than Corey patterson, who has hovered bwteween 294-311 since 2002. With the plus defense that Pie has showed so far in the major leagues, he&#8217;s probably a league-average centerfielder, not as good as Adam Jones, with a bat that will not be playable in a corner.</p>
<p>Garret Olson<br />
2008 22 219/271/311 261<br />
2009 23 218/262/315 257<br />
That&#8217;s just bad. He&#8217;d have to have an outstanding glove to even sniff the majors.</p>
<p>**Edit &#8211; should have read further &#8211; apparently there&#8217;s more than one Garret Olson, and I was looking in the batting stats.</p>
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		<title>By: Ed Nelson</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59960</link>
		<dc:creator>Ed Nelson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 14:34:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59960</guid>
		<description>The Chicago Tribune is reporting that Olson was one of the prospects that San Diego was asking for in the Peavy talks that broke down. Looks like the Padres weren&#039;t high on Pie. This all makes more sense.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Chicago Tribune is reporting that Olson was one of the prospects that San Diego was asking for in the Peavy talks that broke down. Looks like the Padres weren&#8217;t high on Pie. This all makes more sense.</p>
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		<title>By: OsandRoayals</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59948</link>
		<dc:creator>OsandRoayals</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 06:44:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59948</guid>
		<description>One thing that wasn&#039;t stated was that Pie had no options left and that the Cubs manager liked Gathright much more than Pie.  So the Cubs can be seen as doing ok in that they got two pieces for somebody who had to be traded or lost.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One thing that wasn&#8217;t stated was that Pie had no options left and that the Cubs manager liked Gathright much more than Pie.  So the Cubs can be seen as doing ok in that they got two pieces for somebody who had to be traded or lost.</p>
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		<title>By: China Brown</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59947</link>
		<dc:creator>China Brown</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 06:17:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59947</guid>
		<description>First, a couple of concessions.

Yes,I agree with you that Felix Pie has more upside than Garret Olson. I believe Pie&#039;s added potential was compensated by the inclusion of Hank Williamson.  Also, I did use OPS as a verb, but I feel no guilt.

So next - Murton/Johnson.  The answer to this one is that Murton cannot play CF.  Ironically, when the Cubs dealt Murton, I posted the following on fangraphs.

&quot;I’ll say this. I’m glad Matt Murton is finally going to the A’s. That way, everyone who goes on and on about how he’s not given a fair chance, can enjoy seeing him ‘contribute’ hundreds upon hundreds of choppers to SS and 3B. Murton absolutely plays pepper with the left side infielders. He is creeping up on 27 and has been falling in the big leagues in both OBP and SLG every season. That his VORP is still in the + as recently as last season boggles my mind. He’s like one of those geological formations that defies gravity.  At least all the debate will be able to stop soon on whether or not Murton is under appreciated, or just not all that great.&quot;

As I reflect on that, I think Murton has taken a defining step towards settling that debate with his &#039;08 performance in Oakland.

Ronnie Cedeno?  Blocked by Cub farmhand Ryan Theriot.  Hard to critique the Cubs for stunting a prospect with another prospect.  Aaron Miles is DeRosa&#039;s roster spot, for better or for worse, not Cedeno&#039;s.

Lastly, I don&#039;t get what you&#039;re saying, sorry.  If Soriano, Murton  &amp; Fukudome are healthy, then Johnson will play CF vs lefties giving the Cubs 3 righty bats.  Against righties, Fukudome plays and they have 2 lefty bats.  Seems logical to me, but maybe I&#039;m missing your point.

In the end, I have no issue with the trade for either team.  I agree that it&#039;s wise for the non-competing Orioles to take a chance and see what happens.  But I don&#039;t fault the Cubs for doing what they did, I think they&#039;re doing what they need to do to win the Central again in &#039;09.  I fault Pie for having two smelly turd seasons and forcing Jim Hendry&#039;s hand.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First, a couple of concessions.</p>
<p>Yes,I agree with you that Felix Pie has more upside than Garret Olson. I believe Pie&#8217;s added potential was compensated by the inclusion of Hank Williamson.  Also, I did use OPS as a verb, but I feel no guilt.</p>
<p>So next &#8211; Murton/Johnson.  The answer to this one is that Murton cannot play CF.  Ironically, when the Cubs dealt Murton, I posted the following on fangraphs.</p>
<p>&#8220;I’ll say this. I’m glad Matt Murton is finally going to the A’s. That way, everyone who goes on and on about how he’s not given a fair chance, can enjoy seeing him ‘contribute’ hundreds upon hundreds of choppers to SS and 3B. Murton absolutely plays pepper with the left side infielders. He is creeping up on 27 and has been falling in the big leagues in both OBP and SLG every season. That his VORP is still in the + as recently as last season boggles my mind. He’s like one of those geological formations that defies gravity.  At least all the debate will be able to stop soon on whether or not Murton is under appreciated, or just not all that great.&#8221;</p>
<p>As I reflect on that, I think Murton has taken a defining step towards settling that debate with his &#8217;08 performance in Oakland.</p>
<p>Ronnie Cedeno?  Blocked by Cub farmhand Ryan Theriot.  Hard to critique the Cubs for stunting a prospect with another prospect.  Aaron Miles is DeRosa&#8217;s roster spot, for better or for worse, not Cedeno&#8217;s.</p>
<p>Lastly, I don&#8217;t get what you&#8217;re saying, sorry.  If Soriano, Murton  &amp; Fukudome are healthy, then Johnson will play CF vs lefties giving the Cubs 3 righty bats.  Against righties, Fukudome plays and they have 2 lefty bats.  Seems logical to me, but maybe I&#8217;m missing your point.</p>
<p>In the end, I have no issue with the trade for either team.  I agree that it&#8217;s wise for the non-competing Orioles to take a chance and see what happens.  But I don&#8217;t fault the Cubs for doing what they did, I think they&#8217;re doing what they need to do to win the Central again in &#8217;09.  I fault Pie for having two smelly turd seasons and forcing Jim Hendry&#8217;s hand.</p>
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		<title>By: Teej</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pie-the-oriole/#comment-59945</link>
		<dc:creator>Teej</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 05:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2443#comment-59945</guid>
		<description>Pie has only 260 at-bats in the majors. His AAA line of .300/.353/.478 while playing a premium position speaks to some good potential. Minor league stats do mean something.

He doesn&#039;t look like a can&#039;t-miss prospect, but I&#039;d put my money on him before I&#039;d put it on Olson.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pie has only 260 at-bats in the majors. His AAA line of .300/.353/.478 while playing a premium position speaks to some good potential. Minor league stats do mean something.</p>
<p>He doesn&#8217;t look like a can&#8217;t-miss prospect, but I&#8217;d put my money on him before I&#8217;d put it on Olson.</p>
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