Pirates Add Church
The Pirates added Ryan Church on a one-year contract on Tuesday that will pay the outfielder a 1.5 million dollar base salary which could reach up to 2.8 million if all plate appearance-based incentives are reached. Church should become the team’s 4th outfielder and could compete for an outfield starting spot, depending on the status of Garrett Jones and Brandon Moss. Church has shown potential, as he posted a 3-win season in 2007 as a member of the Nationals, with a 116 wRC+ and plus defense in the outfield. His loss of power and injuries made him only a one-win player last year, with time split between Atlanta and the New York Mets.
Church was one of the more interesting non-tender candidates of this offseason. He’s always been a decent on-base player, but his power has fallen off the map since a stellar 2006 season in which he posted a .250 ISO. Now, he’s coming off a .111 ISO season and injuries have been a major problem. Luckily, the Pirates don’t need Church to be even an average player for this deal to work – Church is a virtual lock to be worth 1.5 million dollars, and on a one-year deal, it would be hard for this move to make any sort of dent into the Pirates’ future.
Church is a perfect fit for a a rebuilding team like the Pirates. He’s not going to steal time from a prospect – Jose Tabata certainly isn’t ready for a major league role. Also, he does have some upside if his power returns – his HR/FB rate was 4.0% last year, unsustainable for a player with a career rate around 12%. Church won’t be a star – he is already 31 and improvement from him at this point in his career isn’t terribly likely – but at worst he’s a useful role player. He projects as roughly average as a hitter and as a corner outfielder, so worth roughly 1.2 wins per 150 games. It is also important to note that the Pirates also hold control over one more arbitration year, as Church only has roughly 4.1 years of MLB service time, according to Cot’s Contracts.
Finally, the addition of Church should make Rick Ankiel unnecessary. Ankiel’s name has been linked to the Pirates on multiple occasions, and Ankiel does not make sense for Pittsburgh. He’s not as good a hitter as he showed in 2008 nor as bad as he showed in 2009 – he’s probably somewhere near an average hitter, much like Church – but Ankiel is over five years of MLB service and thus will have no more arbitration years. Not only that, but Ankiel’s power reputation (47 HR in the last 3 years, including one year with 26) would likely garner him a larger payday than Church. All in all, Ankiel is a similar player to Church, but Ankiel is likely to be overvalued by this market while the Pirates got a steal on Church.
Ryan Church has been unlucky in recent years, to say the least. The aftereffects of concussions have nearly derailed his career. Personally, as somebody who has suffered from post-concussion syndrome, it makes me happy to see Church get another major league opportunity with Pittsburgh, and it’s likely that Neal Huntington and the Pirates will be happy with their investment as well.
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Concussions are a bitch. Hopefully Church can see some regular playing time in Pittsburgh.
I’ve been partial to him thanks to Jerry Manuel’s absolutely bizarre hatred of him.
Church actually has 4 yrs 152 days of MLB service time according to Jeff at Cots, so he does have just the one year of arbitration eligibility after this season! However, that certainly does not hurt his flipability if his power does return with his health. Anything great? NO! But still a nice little deal from Neal Huntington’s point of view!
True, I think you might want to fix that, Jack. 548 games played, there’s no way he’s only considered to have 3.1 years of service time.
The conclusion is still right, but I think you may want to check that #. Cot’s Contracts is blocked on this computer so I have no more input than that.
Currently at Cots, under each individual team’s players their MLB service time is listed through 2008 only, as the headings indicate! Once the new Green Book comes out, they’ll be updated. If you look at the front of the site, Jeff has estimated MLB service time for those arbitration eligible. That’s where I took Ryan Church’s 4 years 152 days of service time.
OK, I was confused about that. Thanks for the heads up.
Neal Huntington is impressive. It would be great to see that franchise have a winning season or even a postseason appearance (!?!?!) sometime soonish. Certainly heading in the right direction.
Good move by Huntington. Hopefully Russell remembers that Church is only supposed to be a 4th outfielder!
This could lead to Clement starting the year at AAA to work on playing 1B a bit more, while Jones plays 1B and Church plays RF. Only time will tell what the Pirates are thinking.
BTW, we can pretty much tell where Tabata is in his career progression.
MLE from AA Altoona:
.234/.289/.294
MLE from AAA Indy:
.234/.286/.321
Overall MLE:
.234/.288/.304
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, doesn’t look like he grew too much, his MLE in 2008 was .218/.274/.282
I initially misread that this as ‘Giants Add Church’, to which my internal response was, ‘How uncharacteristically sensible of Sabean.’ I guess The Contest continues, though.
I agree that this is a very good signing and think Church is a very good 4th OF’er who can probably fill in at either corner if something were to happen. I’d possibly even let him start giving Jones 1B but that doesn’t seem to be the direction NH is going and there is becoming less and less reason to question him with every move. I think the Pirates are shaping up to be a pretty good ball club if just a few things can go right.
LF – Milledge
CF – McCutchen
RF – Jones or Church
SS – Cedeno
3B – LaRoche
2B – Iwamura
1B – Clement, FA or Jones
C – Doumit
I think the rotation has potential with Maholm, Morton, Duke but the pen is a real mystery. If just a few of those hitters come close to their potential and the SP holds up, they could really make it difficult on anyone coming to Pittsburgh next season.
Having watched both Church and Milledge, Ryan Church is clearly the better player both offensively and defensively. Milledge has superior “tools”, but he has yet to fully employ any of them, nor do I see him as making any concerted effort to do so. Church – when healthy – is a sure bet to hit for a higher average with at worst comparable slash numbers to Milledge, while playing a far superior RF with a plus arm. Milledge is right there with Angel Pagan with the worst defensive instincts in the NL. Takes laughable routes, and overthrows (often the wrong) base.
Church is a solid average hitter and an excellent defender; he’s Pitt’s #2 of, not their #4.
Perhaps to date your assessment is true but Milledge has the superior upside and, given his age, you can’t just ignore that. If I were a Pirates fan and they didn’t give Milledge a chance in a corner, I’d be upset. I’m not saying he is a good bet to be an average player next year but I think the Pirates have to give him a shot based on his talent/tools. Church is a very good player when healthy (which is a fairly big if right now) but I think you are really shorting Milledge’s potential.
I agree with bothstillplaying below, Jones at 1B and Clement in AAA is the better move in my mind but we will have to see what NH decides to do.
Good points, jfish. Given the relative ages, and more importantly, the Pirates’ “situation”, they owe it to themselves to see what they have in Milledge. Absolutely correct. My feeling, having watched both players, however, is that Church is a better bet this year, and for the next two or so, to turn around the recent years’ trend (he’s only 31, btw). I find it alarming to see a downward trend on a player of Milledge’s age/experience; he’s coming off the period of time when most hitters have made their greatest leaps, and he’s gone the wrong direction. He would SEEM to have upside given his tools and age, but nothing indicates that he’s done a thing to employ, let alone improve, them. Potential and $.25 will get you a cup of coffee.
If Jeff Clement is to establish himself at first base, it will be at AAA rather than in Pittsburgh. Thanks to the M’s previous administration, Clement already has 150 days of MLB service time, putting him in jeopardy of being an arb-eligible super-two just a couple of years down the road. This sort of forces the Pirates to keep him down on the farm in hopes of maxing his most cost-effective service time, or at least until they have a better idea if Pedro Alvarez can handle third base (or will have to move across the diamond sooner rather than later).
A far better use of Garrett Jones’ pre-pumpkin time is to put him at first base where he is not a defensive liability (+2.4 UZR/150 in 2009 vs -7.9 UZR/150 at the OF corners last year) and use some combination of Church (+19.4 UZR/150 away from CF in 2009 and roughly the same career-wise), Moss (+10.6 UZR/150 as OF last year),and Milledge (+16.4 UZR/150 in LF in 2009) at the corners where all three are plus defenders. Not a bad low-cost stop-gap until they find out what they have in Jose Tabata starting his age-21 season in AAA.
Church’s starting opportunity will likely depend on Clement and Tabata, but Jones could possibly come into play if he falters badly. Moss is not likely to enter into the equation – he has been told he’s slated for bench duty if anything.
Jeff Clement will almost certainly get the first shot at 1B with Jones in RF. Although Clement is slated to become a Super Two in a couple years if he plays in MLB straight through, it looks like Huntington is going to either accept that or use that as an incentive for Clement to play well these next 2 years.
They were going to bring him up last September until he got hurt. He would have accumulated 171 days if they had done that. That tells me they are going to give him every chance to obtain Super Two status, but he will have to perform right away. He has an option left, so he can always be sent down for a few weeks to stop his clock.
If Clement is not lights out by June, then if Tabata is felt to be ready, he will get the call up and Clement will be sent down to avoid Super Two status. If Tabata isn’t ready or comes up and doesn’t perform, then Church will be the guy.
This is a very good signing for the needs of the Pirates and also provides a minimum baseline that the new players must attain or be sent down. Huntington seems to be saying that the Pirates expect new players to be ready for MLB before arriving, and their windows of opportunity will be finite, so they’d better take advantage of them.
Good – means Ankiel might still come back to STL.
So that’s why you think Fred Lynn is a good defensive player. JK
Hard to argue with the contract, but Gabe Gross would have been a better option for slightly more money.
Scratch that, probably the same money if not less. Church might have the slightest advantage in wOBA, but Gross can truly play all 3 OF positions above-average. Still can’t believe this guy is available. Maybe he’s a good fit for the ChiSox or Natinals, but Pittsburgh would have been a dream scenario for both parties.
Gross would have been fine with me. I also thought they should have looked at Kearns, as they Pirates are extremely left-handed, and could use a right handed bat who plays good defense.
But I have no qualms about Church.
Given Pitt’s drastic lack of winning seasons, the title of this post coulda been …
“Church Goes To Hell”
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Regards.
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