Plummeting Abreu Market
Though it may feel ages away, Spring Training is fast approaching, and for the first time in 11 seasons, Bobby Abreu has no idea where he will be playing. Abreu’s case has been documented numerous times here: his defense is poor and his bat, though still solid, is in decline mode. Add in that he turns 35 in March and Abreu just does not seem as attractive of an asset as he once did.
Factoring in the current scope of the economy it is not terribly surprising that his asking price was scoffed at, but the issue now deals with the depths to which his asking price will sink. On top of the factors mentioned above, something else is apparently contributing to his dearth of suitors and potential landing spots: teams are getting smarter.
As Dave discussed earlier, Peter Gammons wrote that teams are learning to value defense much moreso than before, leading them to worry about the potential number of runs guys like Abreu, Adam Dunn, and Manny Ramirez give back with the glove. I don’t think each and every team has suddenly hopped on the defensive bandwagon but rather that they recognize $16 mil/yr for three seasons is excessive for a 35-yr old with a declining bat and poor glove in the current market.
Had we just listed the attributes as opposed to the attached name, eliminating all aspects of reputation, the proposed deal would, without a doubt, seem ludicrous. With Abreu gradually decreasing his expectations, the last piece of news on the matter pegged him at 1-yr/$8 mil. At such a little commitment and a drastically lower salary, one could easily reason that a wide array of suitors would line up. This is yet to be the case. Abreu has been linked to the Braves, Mariners, Dodgers, White Sox and Mets, but a Mets official apparently reported that the deal would need to be for a maximum of 1-yr/$4 mil for the Mets to pull the trigger.
I cannot speak for the validity of that statement or how the remaining interested parties value Bobby’s skills, but 1 yr/$4 mil would be the same value, with one less year, that Jeremy Affeldt received from the Giants. The deal would be half of Pat Burrell‘s average annual value, which itself was largely depressed. The deal would be $250K less than Brandon Lyon received from the Tigers and equal to the amount Abreu’s former employer, the Yankees, will give to Damaso Marte. I ultimately expect Abreu to sign for a bit more than $4 mil but it has been nothing less than fascinating to watch his asking price potentially end up at 1/4 of its original total.
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FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal believes the Angels are close to signing Abreu
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9204220/Sources:-Angels-make-room,-possibly-for-Abreu
I’m shocked by the fact he hasn’t been signed too. I know he’s not the player we saw here in Philly for so many years, but he’s still pretty darn good.
Replacement level for a DH is an MLB average hitter, a .335 wOBA. If Abreu is a .360 wOBA hitter, that makes him a +13 runs above average player as a DH, which is worth about 1.3 wins or 5.5 million dollars. -10 runs in a corner OF is the point at which a guy is more valuable as a DH than LF/RF, and that’s about what Abreu is. In his best form, he’s a 1 win above replacement player.
He’s not pretty darn good anymore.
Not exactly, philosofool. Abreu is extremely durable, which makes 160 GP and 650 PA almost both locks. His value as a DH would be as follows:
-17.5 adjustment for DH, +22 runs above replacement, +13 runs batting, for a grand total of +17.5 runs, right around +1.7-1.8 wins.
My article from a couple months ago broke down what all those guys, Abreu/Dunn/Manny look like as both corner OF and DH. I had Abreu at +1.46 wins as an RF, around +1.85 wins as a DH.
+1.7 wins as a DH is more appropriate. He isn’t an all-star, he isn’t a scrub.
Scott Boras thinks it’s all Pat Burrell’s agent’s fault, lol.
I feel like it’s time for the Angels to swoop in and help their team out. How badly has the economy hurt Arte Moreno that after having so much money to splurge on mediocre players over the years, he’s not spending jack in a buyer’s market?
Abreu, presented as virtually unmarketable and bracketed with Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez in the defese losses vs offensive pluses, got me examining each
over the 2006 thru 2008 seasons.
Player……….Age 2009……..RC………+/-DR…….Net Runs…..Wins/season
Abreu…………………35…..331………….-9.5……….321.5……….+2.17
Dunn………………….29…..337…………-13.8………323.2………..+2.27
Ramirez………………37….362…………-20.04……..342.0………..+2.90
The Net Runs column, for me is as compared to a RC “slot” value in a lineup of 85 RC and being defense neutral, +/- 0. Ramirez, @ 342-255 [3 years] = +87 net runs over 3 years = net +29 runs/season = +2.9 Wins.
Pros & Cons:
Abreu and Dunn are “advantaged cross-dominant,” [bats L, throws R], which for me is a definite plus. However the advantage evaporates with Dunn with career splits vs. LHP @ .235 and vs. RHP @ .252. In 2008, this disadvantage worsened to .195 vs. LHP and .253 vs. RHP. Dunn is extremely poor for both contact and average and is historically a sub-par fielder. His 6’6″ height and 240# girth may already have evidenced themselves as potentials for injury and loss of playing time. Right or wrong, @ $13 million/yr. I will run, not walk to the nearest exit.
Abreu, despite three seasons of sliding defense, nonetheless has exhibited some fine defensive flashes during his career and an arm that has not been taken for granted by opposing baserunners. At 35, in 2009, I am willing to sacrifice some HR power [Dunn] for plate discipline and OB%. Abreu’s splits, career vs. LHP [.280] and RHP [.308] were actually reversed in 2008 vs LHP [.315] and RHP [.287]. These splits are those of a guy I want in my lineup, giving no starter or bullpen “specialist” edge to opposing mangares in tight situations. Abreu is strudy and steady and is not an outright defensive liability [as labeled] … fine candidate for several DH seasons.
Manny Ramirez is, no doubt, a first ballot HoF-er. Now in the NL, his day to day position play at 37 and beyond, makes $18 million/year a bit of a gamble. There is no debating his splits, 2008 vs. LHP [.308] and vs. RHP [.339] and career L[.340]; R [.306]. Day to day position play may accelerate aging [but Manny being Manny may be rejuvenated]. A DH return to the AL might buy him a career into his mid 40s.
My shopping list:
1. Bobby Abreu
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Adam Dunn, no thank you.