Comments on: Polanco Hits The Market

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:38:16 +0000

Scottwood, you have some good points there. I’d caution against reading too much into LD/GB/FB ratios since there can be some subjective changes (person noting whether something is a FB or LD in particular) and natural fluctuation. But I failed to accout for these. Still, even though his LD/GF/FB ratio seems to have shifted and his O-Swing% has increased, he is still making good contact with the ball (IFFB% and ISO in line with career averages). So his selectivity has declined, but he is still making lots of contact and good quality contact (for him).

By: CircleChange11

CircleChange11 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:12:29 +0000

Good one.

By: CircleChange11

CircleChange11 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:10:57 +0000

Scott,

Thank you for showing how change in approach and/or plate performance actually has some effect on results …

versus just chalking it up to “bad luck”.

BABIP, to me, really seems to be a measure of a combination of how hard a guy hits the ball, how many line drives they hit, etc.

So, when a guy’s BABIP goes down, rather than just chalk it up to the default “luck” response, I’d prefer to (do what you did) and look at their swing stats or how they’re being pitched to try and decipher how their approach and/or contact quality at the plate has changed.

By: Falco

Falco — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:38:15 +0000

Considering the Phillies recent FA history and the reasonable price of the contract, I’m willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt here.

By: JoeR43

JoeR43 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:28:10 +0000

Score one for Philly here for getting a guy who provides a slightly above league average bat (albeit with nasty fluctuations thanks to his propensity to put the ball in play) and a very good glove for less.

I love how Ruben Amaro Jr. says he rejects SABRmetrics, even though signings like this are exactly what Moneyball was saying; why 3 WAR for $12 mil when you can get 3 WAR for $6 mil?

Example: Jason Bay will be worth 3.5-4 WAR in 2010, probably. He’s going to earn at least 2x this.

By: PhD Brian

PhD Brian — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:23:35 +0000

I am always surprised how much you guys think some “old” age declines a player. Rarely does age take much skill from any player until around age 34, but then it is not a huge difference until like 36 or 37. A guy will perform about the same at 33 as he does at 29. Only a tiny tad worse at 35 as 33. Sure 40 year olds are going to suck compared to age 30, but usually age affects are vastly overstated by bloggers here. Turning 34 does not mark a huge fall off in talent. Its just a very small fall each year until about age 37, then it accelerates. So luck will factor far more into Polonco’s value over this contract than age and talent decline.

By: Eric

Eric — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:03:24 +0000

Really? 3/$18? Apparently defense is still undervalued.

By: Scottwood

Scottwood — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:50:07 +0000

-Polanco has the highest outside swing % of his career in each of the last 2 seasons.
-He is swinging at fewer pitches within the strike zone than he ever has before these last 2 seasons.
-He is hitting more fly balls than ever before in each of the last 3 seasons.
-His line drive rate has been the lowest of his career in each of the last 2 seasons.

So, to summarize… Polanco is swinging at more pitches than ever outside the strike zone and perhaps as a result of this, Polanco is hitting more fly balls than ever before and fewer line drives than ever before.

What to take from this? I’m not sure. But, I don’t think its fair to simply say that his BABIP was lower than career norms b/c of bad luck. When you look at his batted ball type and plate discipline stats, he is a different hitter now than he was from 2002-2007. Just looking at 2008, he had the lowest line drive % of his career that year and had his highest FB% that season. If anything, one could say that he got lucky with BABIP in 08. More fly balls and fewer line drives should have equaled a lower BABIP. Instead, it was above his career norms. In 09, the low line drive rate and higher FB% continued, and his BABIP dipped. Was that bad luck or is it unfair to judge last year’s BABIP in comparison to his career averages when there are other obvious differences that we can see in the stats?

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:03:30 +0000

In other news, after RJ defends Keith Law’s NL Cy Young vote, Klaw turns around and snaps fangraphs in the but with a wet towel during today’s chat.

“Cesare (Jet City, Washington)
According to Fangraphs, Polanco was worth 50 million over the last three years … does anyone seriously think their valuations have any basis in reality?

Klaw (1:33 PM)
My favorite line on those came from a GM: ‘Their replacement level is, like, me.’”

Of course, changing the replacement level floor for valuations wouldn’t change the relative values of the players compared to each other. So even if you were to agree with this anonymous GM, it doesn’t mean the WAR aren’t a useful analytical tool.

I bet we could almost figure out who the anonymous GM is by considering who might actually look online and know who fangraphs is. At least narrow it down to 5-10.

By: Mo

Mo — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:30:20 +0000

$18 million for polanco to play the hot corner??