Poll: Tim Lincecum Arbitration
Tangotiger’s running the same poll over at insidethebook.com:
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
61 Responses to “Poll: Tim Lincecum Arbitration”
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25
Anyone who voted “under 10MM$” should be banned from this site. If I were Lincecum I would demand 10MM$ just to exchange arbitration figures.
How Dumb do You Feel Now With The Range Extablished At 8-13?
Why should he feel dumb? Last I check $13 million (what Lincecum asked for), is well over $10 million (what he felt was so low as to be silly).
Are you maintaining that $13 million < $10 million?
i put 20-21.5
although he certainly could make an argument for at least 24 mill being that his age, 2 cy youngs, and statistics are off the charts, that number would be shot down too easily because of the arbitration process…just seems like players do not shoot for the moon when they go to arbitration because if they lose they get the team’s figure….20-21.5 may be too large as well, but i think for he undoubtedly ‘deserves’ this amount
it is interesting that the giants allowed it to come to arbitration…the arbitration process is particularly uncomfortable for players because they have to listen to management explain why they are not worth x amount of dollars…this can have a devastating affect on certain players albeit depending on make-up, making them less likely to re-sign with these teams
now lincecum has great make-up and hopefully understands ‘business is business’, but he is so great that he may not take too kindly to listening to the giants brass tell him he is not worth x dollars after what he has done for the organization the past two seasons…
bottom line is they should have already paid the man his money in my opinion..
They can still agree to a deal at any point up to the hearing. That’s usually what happens; both sides settle on their own before the case ever goes before the arbitration panel.
Arb process seems to me a fairly good design actually. Encourages negotiation, yet still gives each side some leverage in these unique cases.
Still don’t know if millions for playing baseball is a good thing.
“Still don’t know if millions for playing baseball is a good thing.”
Maybe, maybe not, but I’d rather have my money go to the players I enjoy watching, who provide me the entertainment I seek out of baseball, then already extremely rich old owners who don’t do a whole lot that provides any value to me…
This complaint is really a complaint against society as a whole for valuing the entertainment as much as we do, rather than the players for taking the money we’re willing to pay them…
There’s no evidence that they haven’t tried to pay him, Lincecum has previously said he’s open to a deal but prefers to go year to year. The Giants can’t sign him if he’s not interested in a deal.
There’s also been talk that the union is pushing for him, or at least rooting for him, to go to arbitration, so he can set a NEW precedent money awarded through arbitration, just as Ryan Howard did in 2008. There is no question that the Giants have been trying to lock him down, but Lincecum puts a lot more pressure on them for a payday by going year to year.
I’d love to be the fly on the wall when/if Brian Sabean tries to justify not giving Lincecum whatever he very well asks for.
“Uh…we feel he could use a hair-cut, and that’s why we’d like to…oh, damn.”
“He’s just going to spend it on video games and pot.”
“How’s he going to know how to invest his money when he’s only 16 years old?”
“He makes the other pitchers feel bad since they can’t hope to pitch like him. He’s too intimidating to our opponents?”
“I wasn’t a fan of MLB 2K9.”
****“I wasn’t a fan of MLB 2K9.”****
I don’t know…I think that actually would and should be held against him…that game was brutal.
Didn’t play it(partially due to crappy reviews), mainly ’cause I’ve been disappointed by baseball video games ever since MVP ’05(which was the shit).
God, why couldn’t they have put out a few games for the 360?
“He’s so stoned he won’t know the difference between 10 million and 15 million, I mean, look at him! He’s thinking about brownies as we speak!”
He smoked the devil’s mari-jew-wanna, think of the kids.
He’s going to need this money to pay off his $513 possession ticket.
I’d hate to be the arbiter on this case. Who do you compare this guy to? 2 Cy Youngs and all the pretty stats at just 25; his only “comps” are named Santana and Sabathia. The Giants have to put up a pretty conservative (high) number here, or they’re just begging to set a record that no team wants to set.
As interesting as Lincecum’s number is the odds that this case ever gets to the arbitration room. If it does, it is proof positive of Sabean’s incompetence.
Does either side get to see the other side’s number before submitting theirs?
Nope. Part of the fun. So, conceivably, a team could offer more than a player.
The negotiations would be pretty funny.
Scott-
OMG that is hysterical. “After you, my dear Alphonse” comes to mind.
Dead Wrong! the public even gets to see the figures are we now know that they are $8M and $13M.
Giantsrainman, how does BOTH sets of numbers being public AFTER they are submitted mean that either side got to see the other side’s numbers PRIOR to submitting their own?
The giants have a surplus of quality pitching and shortage of hitting. It’s shocking they haven’t tried to upgrade the team defensively or trade for a good hitter.
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/11/lincecums-nl-cy-young-implications.html
Actually, after the Giants traded Anderson and Barnes last year for Garko and Sanchez, they’re relatively thin on pitching. The only pitcher close to ready in the minors is Bumgardner, who probably should spend a bit more time in AAA. Chances are, he may end up being our 5th starter.
And if the Giants trade Cain or Sanchez, suddenly they’re down to 3 starters, one of which is Zito. In other words, the situation sucks.
I still have no idea why the Giants gave Sabean an extension…
I wonder if 2010 lincecum can hit “the high inside fastball” >> MLB2k10 commercials, please settle this question
Anyone who put above the 13.5MM figure doesn’t understand the process (unless you think he’s willing to take a guaranteed loss to try and change the system). As a first year arb-eligible guy, Lincecum won’t get much more than $10MM which was the Ryan Howard record award. He may ask for much higher but if I’m the Giants I’d submit $10MM and pretty much lock up the win.
Due respect, Adam, it appears that you are the one who does not “understand the process”. It’s an arbitration; the arbiter can pick either number based on any criteria he or she decides is most relevant. A 1b with power is not comparable to a Pitcher with 2 Cy Young awards at 25. Also, being arbitration eligible is not a standard the arbiters have ever looked at. They look for players with comparable track records, arb-eligibility being irrelevant.
Lincecum could ask for $25M and win if the Giants offer $10M (if he somehow knew what they would offer, which he won’t). That is a nonstarter. The over/under has to be in the vicinity of $20M.
I doubt he makes much more than $12M. Yes, the stats are pretty, and yes, he’s got some nice awards, but this is first-year arbitration and the idea that Tim will double the previous arbitration record is pretty crazy IMO. It typically goes up by $2M or so with every new record, and going up by $10M would be very surprising.
I don’t see how anyone can make such definitive statements on such a unique case. I could see it going a lot of different ways. On the one hand, Lincecum is 25 with two Cy Young awards, and his only peers are guys like CC/Johan who are making tons of money. On the other hand, pitchers have traditionally not gotten as much as hitters in arbitration, the current arb record is Howard at what, $10M? And if I’m not mistaken he even won his hearing and still only got $2-3M more than the former record (Cabrera). Not only that, but nobody in first year arbitration has ever been paid anywhere close to their FA value.
“They look for players with comparable track records, arb-eligibility being irrelevant.”
That just doesn’t seem to be true at all, though it may be in cases like Lincecum where there are no comparable players anywhere close to his service time.
http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works
Anyways, it should be interesting to see what he gets. I just don’t see how anyone can sit here and say with such authority/certainty that he definitely will get X amount at the minimum, or has no chance of getting more than Y. There’s evidence both ways, and it’s such a unique case, who knows how it’s going to be ruled? I don’t, that’s for sure. In my opinion, I think the best evidence is Brian Sabean is in charge of the Giants side. Expect at least $25M. ;)
Due respect Steve, but I understand the process having been a part of it previously. You’ve made it clear from your response that you are missing a fundamental part of the process — service time matters immensely. While I agree that Lincecum and Howard are not good comps, I was merely pointing out the arb record for a 1st year eligible guy is $10MM.
By saying “being arbitration eligible is not a standard the arbiters have ever looked at” you have shown yourself to not understand the process. 1st year guys make less than 2nd year guys who make less than 3rd year guys who make less than they would get on the FA market (ideally). The generally accepted ratio is 40%/60%/80% — this would not be the case unless service time was a critical component of an arbiter’s decision. They simply are not being compared to what similarly-skilled players get on the open market (just as they are not being compared to what similarly-skilled cost-controlled players get).
Obviously this is moot now (and lo and behold I was right in saying he’d ask for ~13MM) but you have to understand that there is no chance in hell he’d get anywhere close to $20MM unless the Giants submitted an equally ridiculous number like $1MM. It’s all about service time and comps within service time — just because Timmy is unique doesn’t mean that they’ll all of a sudden give a 1st year arb guy his FA market value — otherwise the system would be irrelevant.
How Dumb Do You Feel Now?
I am an idiot. I am wrong. You are right Adam.
The arbitration is a “high-low” proceeding, during which each side presents its case for why the player should be awarded the requested salary in the upcoming season. In deciding to award the higher or lower salary, the panel may consider the following criteria:
(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;
(2) the club’s record and its attendance;
(3) any and all of the player’s “special accomplishments,” including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;
(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.
Average from The Book Blog readers: 16.7MM$ (208 votes)
Average from Fangraphs readers: 16.8MM$ (1826 votes)
Wow! Fan Graphs (and others) pegs his free agent value at $35 million. He’s in his first arbitration year, and 40% of that is $14 million.
Not true. Just because it works out for the average cases doesn’t mean it applies here. The readers clearly understand that the comparables that Lincecum is going to bring up will go beyond what the typical 1st year eligibles almost always bring up.
Exactly right, Tangotiger. Lincecum pretty much defines the extreme, not the average.
What will Timmy ask for? I suppose I think he should say 14, or nearly, maybe as low as 12.5m, or maybe 16. And Sabean–what will he offer? What should he offer? If I’m in his spot, I guess I’d say 10. Tough one; if Timmy’s WAR is around 8, he could ask for Santana/Sabathia money just to try to break the bank or see what would happen. Why not ask for 23M? Worst case, he loses to the team, and they offer…what? 6M? Would an arbiter take 6 instead of 23? How many CYs has Sabathia won, right? And teammate Zito makes how much?? I think the Giants ought not dare offer less than 10M. What if they say 8m, but Timmy’s agent says 18m? Maybe they’ll win, but would they? Would Timmy settle for something midway? Maybe they should’ve given him a full mil last year instead of just 650k… Sabean is such a piece of shit, if I was Timmy, I might try to make Boras look merciful.
If I’m Timmy, I might submit an arb figure that’s totally outrageous, like 23M. Then I’d try to negotiate a 6-year deal that goes something like 12-14-16-23-23-23; perhaps Sabean could then be bent to agree to at least 10-12-14-23-23 with a vesting option for one more year. All the cards are stacked in Timmy’s favor now, including the Felix Hernandez deal, and Sabean is notoriously a sucker (albeit for older FA). The only reason not to pursue this, if I’m Timmy, is if I think Sabean & Bochy are such shitwhacks that I’m willing to gamble year to year until I get Boston or NYY willing to go 24M x 6Y. Or maybe the M’s would go 22×5 or 20×7, and that might be enough.
Lincecum can use the time zoen on the West Coast to adjust his demand upwards since King Felix just got $17+/year. No way, no how can Lincecum’s number be less than $18 now.
oops- the deadline was noon ET.
BTW Dallas paper says Josh Hamilton also signed.
MLBTradeRumors has a link that guesses that Lincecum will ask for $12-13 million.
So most of you were wrong…he asked for $13 million…which means he’ll almost certainly win.
I want to note that I didn’t look too closely at the poll when I voted – I just assumed it asked how much Lincecum was going to get. I only later realized it was asking how much he’d submit,which, if we assume there’s some non-zero chance of him losing arbitration (or settling for something in the middle), should be higher than what we think he’ll get….so….yeah. Dunno if anyone else made the same mistake I did.
Yep, I did the same thing. I think he’s going to ask in the 14-15.5 range and win though, so it didn’t have a material effect on my vote.
wow. The Giants submitted $8M? Geez. They probably would have had a shot at $10M . I’d say Lincecum has the leverage to get something closer to his number if they settle, and a REALLY good shot at his number if it goes the distance.
The Giants Have A Shot If You Understand How Arbitration Works.
The current record for super two is Ryan Howard’s $10M who had won both a ROY and a MVP. While Timmy has two CYs the top position players make more then the top pitchers. The Giants offer of $8M is closer to $10M then Lincecum’s request of $13M. If the arbitration panel thinks Timmy should get less then Howard got (and they could) they will choose the Giants figure of $8M.
They have a shot. But not a great one. Do super two’s follow the usual 40% first year of eligability rule of thumb? I’ve seen a couple of posts implying a 20% rule for them, but I’ve seen no suport at all for a claim that a 20% rule actually exists for super 2s.
Assuming 40%:
He’s averaged worth almost dead on $35 million the last two years and is projected for about that value. 40% is $14 million, the market’s down, but not down that badly. He’s a favorite to win based on the offers.
Part of the reason $10 million is still the record is that lots of really valuable players don’t go to arbitration (Lincecum isn’t actually there yet, they can still negotiate a deal). But players that don’t go to arbitration do contribute to the salary comparison the arbitration is supposed to be based on.
Those of you that went with $16M or more are not looking to bright.
Guilty as charged. I was WAAAAYYYY wrong.
What do I know?
Ditto. I think some of the reactions are off. But I went for the 18-19 million range assuming he’d go for more than the 40% rule, and instead he went for less.
IMO the Giants were foolish to come in at $8 million and should be happy Lincecum came in at $13 million, even if it merely means the cap is $13 mill rather than worrying about a number as high as $23 million.
Had the Giants come in at $10 million as one would assume would have been reasonable, they might have had at least a chance of winning. With Lincecum coming in at a very reasonable (IMO) $13 million., I would be quite surprised if he lost.
I don’t think it will come to a hearing, but if it did, the only argument the Giants would have been able to make is that salaries have come down since Howard received his award.
The problem with that argument is that while salaries overall have indeed come down, that isn’t the case for the very top players. Because they have been in very short supply on the free agent market, their cost has remained high.
Or maybe they simply figured they would lose any hearing unless Tim went over the top with his offer and allowed more negotiating room for what will almost certianly become a pre-hearing agreement.
IMO Lincecum could have made a strong argument that the Giants themselves set the bar at a minimum $18 million when they gave that amount to Barry Zito, whose career ERA is more than half a run higher than Lincecum’s, whose ERA in the three seasons before the Giants signed him to the absurd contract was over a run higher than Tim’s ERA over the past three seasons and whose ERA in Tim’s three seasons in the majors has been a run and three-quarters higher than Tim’s.
And the Giants came in at $8 million? That’s the amount they played Edgardo Alfonzo. ;)
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