Potential New-Look Giants O
The San Francisco Giants have been quite active so far in the off-season. They made a very early splash when signing Jeremy Affeldt to pitch out of their bullpen and added some reinforcement today, inking Bobby Howry to a deal. Brian Sabean has also been reportedly pursuing Edgar Renteria, a deal that could come to fruition very soon. Additionally, Sabes has been linked to Jorge Cantu, he of the 29 home runs for the Marlins in 2008. With the potential for a very new-looking Giants offense in 2009, I decided to compare their starting lineup from 2008 to what it may look like for the season opener.
First, if any Giants fans out there read this and would like me to factor in partial seasons for some players who received playing time due to an injury to a starter, let me know. Also, if you have reason to believe that they will feature a different starting first baseman in 2009, I will make the correction. For the 2008 lineup, I took those with the most starts; therefore, certain players with a small sample of playing time were not included.
2008 Giants RAR WAR Bengie Molina +35.0 +3.50 Rich Aurilia +3.0 +0.30 Emmanuel Burriss +22.4 +2.24 Jose Castillo +4.0 +0.40 Omar Vizquel +23.2 +2.32 Fred Lewis +25.3 +2.53 Aaron Rowand +10.0 +1.00 Randy Winn +38.5 +3.85 John Bowker -4.4 -0.44
Put together, these ten players combined for +157 runs above replacement, or +15.7 wins. Now, how does this stack up with the potential lineup in 2009 if they ink Renteria and Cantu?
2009 Giants RAR WAR Bengie Molina +31.2 +3.12 John Bowker +5.0 +0.50 Emmanuel Burriss +15.5 +1.55 Jorge Cantu +15.0 +1.50 Edgar Renteria +23.5 +2.35 Fred Lewis +21.8 +2.18 Aaron Rowand +19.5 +1.95 Randy Winn +31.0 +3.10 Pablo Sandoval (3B)+33.0 +3.30 Pablo Sandoval (1B)+16.0 +1.60
Now, the above projections are based upon Bengie Molina sustaining about a half-win above average defense and slightly improving his offense to league average for a catcher; on Aaron Rowand improving offensively; and on Renteria bouncing back on both offense and defense. These projected wins amount to 16.3 above replacement, a half-win greater than a year ago. Therefore, adding Renteria and Cantu, and giving a full year’s worth of playing time to Burriss and Bowker will add just a half-win above what they accomplished last year.
Pablo Sandoval needs to be added to the mix. His weighted projection calls for a .362 wOBA in 419 PA in 2009. Assuming he is -5 runs defensively, since we don’t know much about his defensive prowess other than it is about average or below average at 1B, we’re looking at +11 runs on offense, -5 on defense, we’ll say -10 as a positional adjustment since he could split between 1B/3B, and +20 for replacement. The total of +16 runs, or +1.6 wins. This would bring the potential 2009 Giants offense to 17.9 wins above replacement, close to three wins better than this past season.
However, if we substitute Cantu for Sandoval at 3B, and remove Bowker for Ishikawa/Phelps in a platoon, things look much better. Sandoval would improve to +3.3 wins, and the Phelps/Ishikawa platoon would be worth +1.2 wins. This would result in +18.8 wins above replacement for the 2009 Giants offense, higher than if they get Cantu, and go with Sandoval/Bowker at 1B. Therefore, it would seem like the best bet for SF would involve signing Renteria, going with the Ishikawa/Phelps platoon at first base, and letting Pablo be the everyday third baseman.
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Pablo Sandoval!
Sandoval couldn’t be worse at first than John Bowker was, and I suspect he may be a better fielder at third than Cantu.
Second base is really manned by “Staff”. Burriss, Kevin Frandsen and the hilarious Eugenio Velez all have a roughly equal shot to walk away with the gig.
oh, and factor in those partial seasons, please!
+3.75 WAR for Molina? I’m going to have to see a justification for that.
Marcel has his 2009 wOBA at .318 – if we assume a league average of .332, that would make him -6.2 runs below an average hitter over 525 PA. Even with a +2 win replacement level adjustment and a +1.25 position adjustment, that adds up to +2.5 WAR.
To get to +3.75 WAR, you’d have to be giving him +1.25 wins for defense and baserunning.
Yeah, there was an error in my spreadsheet for his wOBA. It’s corrected now. I have Molina as -6.3 runs offensively, +5 runs defensively, +12.5 for being a catcher, and +20 above replacement, for a total of 31.2, or 3.1 wins.
What if you substitute out Cantu and project an Ishikawa/Phelps platoon, with Sandoval playing mostly at 3B?
As in, Sandoval at 3B, Ishikawa/Phelps at 1B?
If so, Ishikawa would be: +2.5 runs offensively, +2 runs defensively, -12.5 adjustment, +20 for replacement, or +12 runs, +1.2 wins.
Phelps would be +2.7 runs offensively, -1 runs defensively, -12.5 adjustment, +20 replacement, for +9.2 runs, a bit under 1 win. Together, they would be worth +2.12 wins.
Moving Pablo to 3B instead of Cantu would put Pablo at: +10.6 runs offensively, we’ll say 0 defensively to put him as an average 3B, +2.5 adjustment, +20 for replacement, for a total of about +33 runs, or +3.3 wins at 3B.
Taking Cantu out of the equation and replacing Bowker with Ishikawa/Phelps would give the Giants at +19.7 wins, a full four wins better than 2008.
I don’t think we can use Marcel to project Ishikawa – it just doesn’t enough data to do a real projection.
An MLE for Ishikawa would have him at something like -10 offensively.
So let’s adjust Ishikawa for that: -10 runs offensively, +2 runs defensively, -12.5 adjustment, +20 replacement, to give us -0.5 runs, or -0.05 above replacement, basically making him replacement level. That would mean the true value of his platoon with Phelps would be Phelps, at 1.2 wins.
Thanks Eric, though I’m with Dave re: the use of Marcels for Ishikawa. ZiPS has him and Phelps at .242/.300/.431 and .273/.339/.457 respectively, though those are their overall lines, not their platoon split.
Dave/Eric, it’s fascinating to watch you two go back and forth like this.
For the record, I’d say the odds of Bowker opening the season with the big league club are somewhere between slim and none, unless he’s made huge strides in the offseason.
Hypothetically, what would signing Adam Dunn, rather than Cantu, and playing him at first base do for the team? The Giants need a rainmaker in the middle of the lineup, and Dunn is still seemingly undervalued on the open market. I’m not particularly worried about his career line at Mays Field, as its so far off the rest of his career numbers that I’d chalk it up as an anomaly.
Haha, putting me to work!
Okay, Adam Dunn doesn’t have much of a sample defensively at 1B, but I would be comfortable calling him a conservative -6 or so runs on defense at first base. Weighting the Bill James and Marcels projection puts him at a .385 wOBA in 640 PA. That puts him +29 runs offensively. Factor in -12.5 for playing at 1B, and +20 above replacement, and Dunn would be a +3.05 win player.
Now, in the scenario you just presented, Sandoval would man 3B, Dunn at 1B, and everything else the same. That would give the Giants offense +20.6 wins above replacement, practically a 5-win improvement on last year’s total.
Again, this is assuming Sandoval performs as expected, Renteria is officially signed and bounces back, and other such factors. Then again, the supposed difference between Ishi/Phelps and Dunn is 1.8 wins, and if Ishi is supposed to be one of your top prospects, do you sign Dunn to a big deal? Or do you give him a 2-year deal if he would take that? Even with the impoved bullpen and 5-win improvement on offense if this scenario works out, we’re talking about an extreme upside of something like 82 wins. Would you want that at the expense of not giving Ishi more playing time?
Or is he not one of the top, top prospects?
This makes the prospective Sanchez for Cantu trade look stupid. It would gain 1.5 WAR over replacement platoon at first (though I think Ishikawa has a good chance to hit better than replacement), while giving up a young, cheap pitcher whose FIP was well under his ERA last year.
re: Ishi
consider him a top suspect.
He was a top prospect, struggled for a long time and then either had a breakout or fluke good year last year.
I’m a believer, but there’s plenty of people (for good reason) who aren’t.
Ishikawa’s no top prospect; he’s a longshot to develop to “average.” But he does have a good glove, and both he and Phelps have big platoon splits, so they’re a natural combo. They could get fairly close to Dunn’s production. (Your minus-6 for Dunn on defense seems optimistic.)
Thanks Eric.
Ishikawa “figured some things out” last season, for sure. And he’s got the potential to be a plus defender at first, but I need to see two strong back-to-back seasons out of him before I give him the seal of approval.
I don’t think the Ishikawa/Phelps platoon can approach the potential of Adam Dunn offensively, though the defensive adjustment might make it more of a wash. Dunn has the power that could work in any ballpark, even Mays.
Sandoval seems to be at least a bit of a project whereever you’re going to put him, but appears to have the bat to play almost anywhere. Considering the holes on both corners for San Francisco, I’d say you get the best 1B or 3B you can find, and put him at the other spot. Obviously if Posey had not fallen to the Giants in the draft, Sandoval would be the heir apparent to Molina, but now if they think Posey can stick behind the plate, its better to get a head start on developing Pablito elsewhere.
Ishi/Phelps won’t approach Dunn’s offense, but we don’t know how bad of a 1B Dunn is. He likely isn’t going to be average or above average, but is he so bad that he is a win below average? 1.5 wins below average? In the limited stats he has at 1B over the last couple of seasons he’s been around -1 to -4 plays below average, but then again it’s such a small sample. I gave him a conservative -6, meaning he would be about a half-win below average at 1B. In LF, he would be MUCH worse, but you have Lewis there.
Is there a rule of thumb for how outfielders convert to first base? Of course every player has different skills, but it would be nice to know what happens to outfielders as a group when they make the switch. Does a -20 outfielder typically become a -20 first baseman? -10? -5?
I do hope that your predictions are correct because almost certainly that means a division title, Playoffs Baby! 8D
Ishikawa, as people have noted, have been suspect for a couple of years now, but was one of the top prospects not too many years ago. If you take his MLE for 2008 in the minors, according to the minor league splits website, his MLE would be .252/.331/.458/.789, which is not that far away from what he hit in the majors, .274/.337/.432/.769.
I understand Watcher’s need to see two years and that’s why I’ve been hoping he gets to start in 2009. But I think he’s finally turned the corner, you don’t suddenly go from not having not much of a clue in terms of striking out previously and improve greatly in one season without there being substantial improvement.
The main question is whether he’s only platoon material or if he can develop enough to hit against LHP. If he can bomb them out regularly against RHP – and I think he has the power to follow in Bonds’s splash-steps – he could start at 1B like Snow did, as he didn’t hit that much against LHP either.
And for us folks new to this stuff, 20 wins above is equal to 80 wins, meaning 60 wins is replacement level? Where can I read up on this stuff?