I understand Watcher’s need to see two years and that’s why I’ve been hoping he gets to start in 2009. But I think he’s finally turned the corner, you don’t suddenly go from not having not much of a clue in terms of striking out previously and improve greatly in one season without there being substantial improvement.

The main question is whether he’s only platoon material or if he can develop enough to hit against LHP. If he can bomb them out regularly against RHP – and I think he has the power to follow in Bonds’s splash-steps – he could start at 1B like Snow did, as he didn’t hit that much against LHP either.

And for us folks new to this stuff, 20 wins above is equal to 80 wins, meaning 60 wins is replacement level? Where can I read up on this stuff?

Ishikawa “figured some things out” last season, for sure. And he’s got the potential to be a plus defender at first, but I need to see two strong back-to-back seasons out of him before I give him the seal of approval.

I don’t think the Ishikawa/Phelps platoon can approach the potential of Adam Dunn offensively, though the defensive adjustment might make it more of a wash. Dunn has the power that could work in any ballpark, even Mays.

Sandoval seems to be at least a bit of a project whereever you’re going to put him, but appears to have the bat to play almost anywhere. Considering the holes on both corners for San Francisco, I’d say you get the best 1B or 3B you can find, and put him at the other spot. Obviously if Posey had not fallen to the Giants in the draft, Sandoval would be the heir apparent to Molina, but now if they think Posey can stick behind the plate, its better to get a head start on developing Pablito elsewhere.

He was a top prospect, struggled for a long time and then either had a breakout or fluke good year last year.

I’m a believer, but there’s plenty of people (for good reason) who aren’t.

Okay, Adam Dunn doesn’t have much of a sample defensively at 1B, but I would be comfortable calling him a conservative -6 or so runs on defense at first base. Weighting the Bill James and Marcels projection puts him at a .385 wOBA in 640 PA. That puts him +29 runs offensively. Factor in -12.5 for playing at 1B, and +20 above replacement, and Dunn would be a +3.05 win player.

Now, in the scenario you just presented, Sandoval would man 3B, Dunn at 1B, and everything else the same. That would give the Giants offense +20.6 wins above replacement, practically a 5-win improvement on last year’s total.

Again, this is assuming Sandoval performs as expected, Renteria is officially signed and bounces back, and other such factors. Then again, the supposed difference between Ishi/Phelps and Dunn is 1.8 wins, and if Ishi is supposed to be one of your top prospects, do you sign Dunn to a big deal? Or do you give him a 2-year deal if he would take that? Even with the impoved bullpen and 5-win improvement on offense if this scenario works out, we’re talking about an extreme upside of something like 82 wins. Would you want that at the expense of not giving Ishi more playing time?

Or is he not one of the top, top prospects?

For the record, I’d say the odds of Bowker opening the season with the big league club are somewhere between slim and none, unless he’s made huge strides in the offseason.

Hypothetically, what would signing Adam Dunn, rather than Cantu, and playing him at first base do for the team? The Giants need a rainmaker in the middle of the lineup, and Dunn is still seemingly undervalued on the open market. I’m not particularly worried about his career line at Mays Field, as its so far off the rest of his career numbers that I’d chalk it up as an anomaly.