Comments on: Projecting Zimmerman

By: Caleb Ward

Caleb Ward — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 20:02:12 +0000

Dan, not sure how you can peg “normal” as .290/.350/.480 when those BA and SLG figures are above his career high. That would signify some growth or development, which there is little reason to expect as he returns from injury.

The disturbing thing to me was his splits last year, as he failed to build upon his remarkable rookie year. Yes, his slash stats across the board were down 20 points, but that hides the fact that he got dominated by right handed pitchers all year (.235/.295/.399 in 555 PA) while pulverizing lefties (.374/.443/.660 in 167 PA). The spike in performance against lefties hid the dropoff in his all around offensive game last year. This year, his performance against lefties has dropped back down to earth, and his walk rate has declined. I would wager that the line drives lost were against right handers last year, and that the combination of injury and poor coaching is preventing him from making the adjustment. It isn’t too late!

By: dan

dan — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 04:49:20 +0000

I thought he has off-season wrist surgery? Wrists usually take a loooong time to recover fully, but you can play with diminished strength in the wrists without knowing it. He’s gonna be back to normal next year (.290/.350/.480).

By: philosofool

philosofool — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 02:14:33 +0000

The big drop in Zimmerman’s performance is in his LD%. He went from a 21% LD hitter to a 17% LD hitter after ’06. That account pretty well for the BABIP drop. He’s not actually seen a drop in power–he’s sustained a 12-13% HR/FB rate throughout his career since 2006.

However, his current season is really too little information to say much. 250 plate appearances is too few, especially given that he’s been injured, to judge his development. Also, he’s 23 until September 28th this year, so there’s plenty of time for him to develop before we can start to wonder whether this is he peaked as a rookie.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 23:57:37 +0000

Tom, it’s not a mistake, but rather the fact that the ZiPS in-season projection sent to me is selling Zimmerman short on AB and PA. It must be seeing his 57 games out of 105-110 team games and projecting him with less than the 55 games left Marcel has him at.

By: BobbyRoberto

BobbyRoberto — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 22:48:35 +0000

Are the ZiPS in-season projections available somewhere? I found the Marcels in-season projections at THT and really like that they are out there (thanks, Tango!).

By: tangotiger

tangotiger — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 18:42:29 +0000

You must have made a mistake. How could ZiPS forecast him for a higher SLG than Marcel, but Marcel forecast him for many more extra base hits? Especially when they are forecast for the same batting average.

By: Charles

Charles — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 18:32:27 +0000

This is an absolutely gut feeling for which I can provide no account: It has seemed like he has tried to do too much post 2006, due to the fact that he has been expected to be the main offensive force on the team. I think if Soriano was still around and Johnson was healthy he would have grown more.

Again, I cannot offer a single fact to support that.

By: Rage

Rage — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:12:55 +0000

I know Kasten’s secret weapon (!?!?) to lower Zim’s market value

Lenny Harris!!!!