Comments on: Prospect Trading Frenzy

By: Tom Au

Tom Au — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 21:55:32 +0000

“Trading both Bay and Nady guts their offense (probably puts it below 0 in terms of WPA).” It went below 0 for the year during August alone. I earlier thought it would be 2009 before this would happen.

And my conclusion stands: “It’s hard to imagine a pitching upgrade that could possibly compensate.”

By: Jeff

Jeff — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 05:31:14 +0000

You’re right, Marc. Hernandez was a pretty good pick-up by Seattle for what they gave. I have been and will be an Arthur Rhodes fan, and I was happy to see him make the team after he was essentially kicked to the curb, but I’m glad we were able to get something for him. Hopefully Florida makes a good run and Arthur helps them.

By: the g

the g — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 07:14:35 +0000

Depo traded Green for Navarro.

By: Tom Au

Tom Au — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:13:01 +0000

Why the drooling over prospects? All right, the Pirates did better than average with prospects in a tight market, although it’s not clear that they will even collectively represent the value of Jason Bay, who contributed 3.88 Win Probability Added as a Pirate. Marte (2.42 WPA) and Nady (2.03 WPA) also represented losses.

In 2005, the Dodgers’ Paul dePodesta traded Shawn Green for four (busted) prospects, a move that helped cost him his job. And I didn’t see the Phillies getting much of anything from the four prospects that were traded for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle in 2006 (unless it was a “salary dump”).

The Pirates are a poor team, and salary is a consideration. So trading Nady for prospects might have made sense if the idea was to use his (recent and future) salary to retain Bay. But trading both Bay and Nady guts their offense (probably puts it back below 0 in terms of WPA). It’s hard to imagine a pitching upgrade that could possibly compensate.