Proven Veteran Starters
Every winter, major league teams spend a lot of money on free agent pitchers. It doesn’t even matter if those pitchers are good or not - because they’ve survived at least six years in the majors to achieve free agency, they receive the proven veteran label, and teams fight for the right to lean on that kind of experience. One of the main reasons we’re told that veteran starters are so important is because young pitching is too inconsistent and unpredictable, and having proven veterans on your staff prevents the kind of disaster performances that scared minor league kids can give.
Now, with that in mind, here’s a list of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, sorted by WPA.
Miguel Batista, -2.86 WPA
Brett Myers, -2.62 WPA
Ian Snell, -2.54 WPA
Barry Zito, -2.20 WPA
Andrew Miller, -2.04 WPA
Zito, of course, signed the largest contract in history for a free agent pitcher. Batista signed a 3 year, $24 million deal before the 2007 season. Myers signed a 3 year, $25 million contract that bought out his final arbitration years and his first year of free agency. Snell signed a 3 year, $9 million deal to buy out his first few arbitration years and gave Pittsburgh team options that could eliminate his initial free agent season.
Andrew Miller is the only unproven youngster of the bunch.
Last winter was a perfect example of this phenomenon. Carlos Silva, Kenny Rogers, and Livan Hernandez were paid a combined $25 million for the 2008 season (and Silva was given a lot more beyond that). Those three are being outpitched by every inexperienced minor leaguer their team has brought up this season.
Need more evidence? The Twins traded away Johan Santana and let Silva leave via free agency, replacing them with unproven youngsters Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. The Twins team ERA has gone down after losing their two veteran horses, and they’re contending on the strength of a pitching staff of inexperienced youngsters. The Mets and Mariners, the two recipients of these proven veterans, have had disappointing first halves.
The idea that championship clubs are built on the backs of proven veteran starters is a massive myth, perpetuated by out of touch old men and the equally outdated writers to talk to them. “Proven veteran” has become a synonym for “old and crappy”, and as better front offices take hold in MLB, we’ll see teams that cling to these cliches continue to finish in last place, shocked that the experience they built their team around failed to bring them success.
Graham said,
July 20, 2008 @ 2:47 pm
What’s even more ironic is the Twins went out and signed that “proven veteran starter” (Livan) who’s been awful and yet they’re ERA is still better.
Steve Phillips' Evil Twin said,
July 20, 2008 @ 9:33 pm
There is some use for the proven guys. If a GM signs veteran guys and they are bad, then you can say the players disappointed and “underperformed,” but if a GM takes a chance with green rookie pitchers and they fail, then the GM gets the blame for taking stupid risks. This is especially true for teams with the “win now” mentality, namely the big market teams.
Conor said,
July 21, 2008 @ 8:46 am
Isn’t it also that veteran pitchers are more likely to get a shot to stick around and compile bad counting stats? If you sign a veteran pitcher, you can’t just send him down to the minors when he sucks.
I’m thinking of Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, who have been terrible this season. I know Hughes got hurt, but there is always the option of sending them to the minors, which makes it more difficult to have one of the worst seasons.
Kennedy and Hughes have combined to throw 59 innings and allow 55 runs. I don’t know what the WPA is for that, but I am guessing pretty bad.
Simmy said,
July 21, 2008 @ 9:55 am
It’s amazing how this stigma around old and crappy pitchers continues to persist despite obvious glaring improvements in team management in the moneyball era as a whole by GMs. Plenty of mistakes are still made with offense (Pierre, Eckstein) by certain GMs but not nearly as much as with overpaying for old/crappy/league average pitching. Remember that Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Randy Wolf off-season?
twinsfan said,
July 21, 2008 @ 10:15 am
An interesting note is that both Perkins and Blackburn credit Livan’s “Veteran presence” for there great performance.
Joser said,
July 21, 2008 @ 2:42 pm
An interesting note is that both Perkins and Blackburn credit Livan’s “Veteran presence” for there great performance.
Of course they do. That’s what you say when you don’t have anything else nice to say about the old guy who isn’t pulling his weight.