Henderson was hired by the Mets full-time in mid-July, 2007. A couple of weeks, Reyes started averaging almost a stolen base attempt per game, after averaging about 3 attempts per five games the whole year. This led to 26 stolen bases in 31 games, the best stretch of its kind in Reyes’ career. However, it also led to a September in which Reyes was a terribly unproductive hitter, barely keeping his average above .200, and also stopped being an effective base stealer. Of course, we can debate whether this was cause and effect or coincidence, but I think it’s probably best to take Rickey’s predictions with a grain of salt, and in the best interest of the players involved to play within themselves and not try to emulate (at least the volume of) the most prolific base stealer in history.

I’m also curious why it’s assumed Davis is “not starting most days” when outfield playing time hasn’t been determined. You mentioned the A’s outfield depth, but the three guys you bring up defense-first guys with single-digit home run power. Davis is the closest thing they have to a leadoff hitter, and he’s got at least April to show whether or not last year’s .360 OBP was a breakout or a fluke.

A SB is worth about 0.3 runs. A CS is worth -0.52. If someone goes 7 for 10 on stolen base attempts, then he adds .54 runs of value.

If someone else goes 52 for 80, then he adds 1.04 runs of value. Obviously his success rate is worse, but his running added more value.

Just don’t get all Joe Morgan and try to make a claim that making outs on the basepaths is okay because it’s “aggressive”.

He also entered his prime, so maybe Davis both figured it out after being allowed to play everyday and just took his chance and ran (bad pun) with it. When players arent given meaningful playing time from the onset of their career, the numbers they put up during those sporadic times are often extremely skewed. Very few players are going to put up the same numbers pinch hitting as they are starting, so taking in Davis’s previous work is nearly bunk. We need to see him, just like any player, get 500 PA’s in a year before we can start making projections and writing them off.

That being said: Davis was one of the biggest entertainment machines in the second half of 09, but even then he only swiped 30 bags in 71 games, so 80 looks like a bit of an overstatement. Davis however took a ridiculous amount of bags off sacrifices and singles so even if he doesnt get to 80 he should continue maximizing his value on the basepaths anyway. But how often will he get on? Time will tell.