Comments on: Rajai Davis & 80 Steals: Part Two

By: JRoth

JRoth — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 22:17:51 +0000

I was wondering this – it’s not clear to me whether Tango’s original numbers take these peripheral matters into account*. One thing I can’t figure at all is how Tango gets “Pickoff Error” as a negative run value – how exactly is it a bad thing for a runner to advance without an out being recorded? And, actually, how is “Other Advance” a worse outcome than an out?

I realize that this has been hashed out before, elsewhere.

* And frankly, I don’t see how it could without being a specialized study – you’d have to look at the likelihood of a run scoring when a good basestealer gets on but doesn’t attempt a steal vs. the likelihood of a run scoring when an equally swift non-basestealer gets on, correcting of course for their relative offenses, the pitcher’s move, the catcher’s arm, etc. I don’t doubt it could be done, but I frankly doubt that linear weights looks at it at all, and further, I’m not sure you could integrate it directly into LW – a guy who steals 5 bases a year isn’t getting/creating the general advantage that a 50-SB player is, so it’s not tied (in a linear fashion) to SBs. You’d have to add it as a factor – 0-10 steals gets 0 P-factor (P for pesky), 10-20 SB get 0.05 runs added, etc. The effects are mostly small, but we’ve all witnessed the disruption caused by a Jose Reyes on the basepaths – it’s not zero, and it’s not mere anecdote. It’s just really hard to measure (mostly, I think, because its hard to extract the speed element – there are plenty of fast guys who don’t steal all that much, but how can you determine who qualifies as fast? IF hits would be a pretty crude measure, and doubles will inevitably be conflated with power, and triples are simply too rare for any given player).

By: Daniel

Daniel — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 12:20:35 +0000

While I agree that SB% is very important I feel like simple stats overlook many factors. For one, these stats do not measure the benefit of errors on SB attempts that result in extra bases. They also do not measure the effect a base-stealer has on a pitcher, or the effect of middle infielders cheating towards, or forced to cover second base.

By: gnomez

gnomez — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 03:01:41 +0000

Good point.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 14:40:18 +0000

That’s actually not a bad idea…even though I think that is reflected in the player’s WPA already.

By: The Usual SusBeck

The Usual SusBeck — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 14:31:23 +0000

Don’t have time to think about this comment, but wanted to get it out.

Should SBs be looked at somewhat in terms of LI or WPA rather than runs created? More along the lines of how relievers are looked at. I feel like (no time for logic) that a runner who can put himself in scoring position late in a game would be more valuable.

Maybe that would only make sense for pinch runners. I don’t know.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:50:12 +0000

Well since SB/CS are totally binary results, it’s pretty easy to put a distribution around it.

Say a fast guy, over 2 seasons, attempts 200 SB, and gets 160 of them. We can feel 95% confident he’ll steal between 74.46% and 85.54% the next season.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:47:31 +0000

Actually, in some cases, stolen bases are underrated now. We're so used to the home run and high run environments that we forget that a stolen base can help a lot. Look at the uphill battle Raines still faces for the Hall of Fame, for example. If we use straight linear weights found here, Raines added 114.8 runs with steals, and 92.1 runs above average. That is a ton of value added.

By: SF 55 for life

SF 55 for life — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:38:39 +0000

nice work R.J. Question for you guys, when do sample sizes for stolen bases become reliable? 50 attempts? 100?

By: PhD Brian

PhD Brian — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:30:02 +0000

Shows how over paid are the base stealers.

By: Obligatory Sox Fan

Obligatory Sox Fan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 03:25:57 +0000

This was a great post, and I almost always dig the sabermetric view on runs and wins, but man, this really takes some of the fun out of stolen bases. Not the post, but the reality of the run values of stolen bases.

110 attempts at 85% just to get a win worth of runs?! Base stealing is such a fun part of the game, I just don’t want to accept these numbers.