Ranking the Minors: The Lowly 10
Over the last couple of months, we’ve looked at some of the more interesting prospects in each of the 30 MLB team’s minor league systems. With the Minor League Baseball season beginning at the end of this week, let’s now take a look – over the next three days – at who has the best and the worst minor league systems in the game.
(BA = Baseball America, BP = Baseball Prospectus, FAN = FanGraphs)
The Bottom 10:
NO. BA BP FAN
21. WAS LAD CWS
22. MIN PIT SEA
23. LAD LAA LAD
24. SEA CWS WAS
25. LAA SD ARZ
26. ARZ CHC SD
27. CHC DET LAA
28. DET ARZ CHC
29. SD WAS DET
30. HOU HOU HOU
Obviously, minor league rankings are subjective. Each opinion is neither correct nor incorrect. For the most part, though, there is agreement upon the worst minor league systems in Major League Baseball. The biggest disagreements appear to be with these three organizations: Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Chicago (AL). So why is that? With Pittsburgh, you have the big three hitters: Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Tabata. After that, well, you go on gut feel because the system is thin.
Seattle has a lot of raw, toolsy guys that can be hard to read. Yes, Greg Halman put up a near 30-30 season, but his walk/strikeout rates are poor and his career batting average is just .262 – and mostly in the low minors. Phillippe Aumont has the chance to be a monster pitcher with a heavy, hard fastball – but he’s already showing signs of being injury prone (something that seems to plague Canadian starting pitchers… Erik Bedard, Shawn Hill, Rich Harden, Jeff Francis, Adam Loewen, etc).
In Chicago, there is not a whole lot to get excited about. Personally, I am not as big of a Gordon Beckham fan as most people are – especially in Chicago. He’s good, but I don’t think he’s superstar good. My favorite prospect in the system is Tyler Flowers, and he was just obtained this past off-season from the Atlanta Braves. Then you have Aaron Poreda, who is a left-handed pitcher with an above-average fastball and poor secondary pitches. You can dream on him and see a dominating starter… if everything clicks. If not, then maybe he can be a closer. Beyond those prospects… there isn’t much that excites me at this point.
The one thing that all three publications agree on in their evaluations is that Houston has the worst minor league system in all of baseball: A firm No. 30 out of 30. The club is really hurting from an ownership that penny-pinched on the amateur draft process… apparently not realizing that developing your own in-house talent and paying them a MLB salary for the first six years is A LOT cheaper than throwing a four- or five-year contract at a 32-year-old free agent. The undisputed No. 1 prospect in the system in 2008 first-round draft pick – and catcher – Jason Castro. My favorite player in the system is 2008 prep draftee Ross Seaton.
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I was about to get on you for that Canadian pitcher comment, but you appear to be onto something. Aside from Ferguson Jenkins and (here’s a reach) Kirk McCaskill, Canadian starting pitchers in the past 30 years really haven’t fared well from a conditioning standpoint. And you didn’t even mention Eric Gagne or Ryan Dempster.
What’s up with Canadian pitchers turning all gimpy?
Discussed a couple of times already…
Second link
Well, at least everyone can agree that the Astros’ minor league system sucks.
Seriously, what has Drayton McClane been smoking these past few years?
(And nothing is probably the answer to that.)
It’s worth noting that Dr. Z is “experimenting” with Aumont in the bullpen. It’s not a necessarily a permanent move, but it’s not necessarily not a permanent move. If it is, then that’ll give the M’s the possibility of having drafted 3 RP and a DH with their first round picks for the last 4 years. Clement 3rd overall in 2005, Morrow 5th overall in 2006, Aumont 11th overall in 2007, and Fields 20th overall in 2008. Ugh. Fingers crossed Aumont find his way back to the rotation and Clement somehow manages to stick behind the plate, or at least learn a passable 1B.
Unless Dr. Z and Wakamatsu have some ingenius plan where Aumont pitches the 7-9th innings one day, Morrow the next, Fields the next, and then back through the cycle so that they all get 150 IP, with Cordero and Aardsma picking up the scraps, I don’t see how Aumont in the bullpen makes alot of sense. This may be the first big strike against Z depending up on how it plays out.
The Angels have a solid opportunity to move out of the bottom 10 as well. 5 of the first 51 picks, and with a lower payroll than last year, they can afford to sign some players that drop due to signability concerns (ala Jered Weaver). The Angels have alot of quantity at the lower levels and while not many have star potential, there are alot that could be servicable if not above average major league players.
You must have counted it wrong. The Mariners and the White Sox are both listed in the bottom 10 in two of the three sources. I think Pittsburgh (only in BP) and Minnesota (only in BA) are the two organizations that invite the most disagreements.
The Dodgers system has been drained by promotion to the majors. While I agree the system is not as strong as it was a few years ago, I think it is being underrated due to the relative youth and injuries to prospects. I trust Logan White has drafted strongly and the Dodgers will have a Top 10 rated minor league system within two years.
I agree. The only reason people have it rated so low is because of the lack of talent at the higher levels.
I fully expect the ratings on their system to rise in a year or so.
“Most Likely to Produce a Rookie of the Year in 1-3 Years: Washington”
Is that solely based on Strasburg? Or did you factor other players in?
I was going to ask the exact same thing…
Jordan Zimmermann was the reason for the Washington ranking. Gordon Beckham received some thought for Chicago AL… The Dodgers too for McDonald, Lambo…