Rasmus has to Play
As the Cardinals slide farther and farther out of the National League Central race, it’s hard not to notice that one of their best players hasn’t been in the lineup for over two weeks. Young center fielder Colby Rasmus hasn’t had more than one plate appearance in a game since August 14th; since then, his only action has been as either a pinch hitter or defensive replacement. In that time, Rasmus has had all of four plate appearances, as his job has effectively gone to Jon Jay, especially given this quote from manager Tony La Russa (h/t Viva El Birdos)
“He’s had all the work,” La Russa said. “He’s never backed off the work, taking batting practice. I think it all has to do with what his concentration is, and what his focus is. I do believe that, you just watch his swings in batting practice and in the game, I think he is convinced that he helps us more if he just yanks the ball out of the park. That normally is not the case, because you’re limiting yourself to a side of the park and you’re vulnerable to too many pitches. We really push, ‘Just play the game.’ That’s what Jon [Jay] does. He plays the game. take a single, take a walk, let the home runs come.”
From this quote, it is obvious that La Russa takes issue with Colby Rasmus’s approach. I don’t particularly doubt that La Russa understands how a MLB player should approach an at-bat. But Rasmus’s poor approach has still resulted in a .268/.352/.501 line, which translates to a .364 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. Basically, Rasmus has been an excellent hitter, and most evidence points to Rasmus supporting that line with an average to above average glove in center field. Even though Rasmus’s line is boosted by a likely unsustainable .341 BABIP, ZiPS projects Rasmus as a .341 wOBA hitter, which is good for a slick fielding center fielder. The wOBA projects Rasmus as a 3-4 WAR player with upside.
The aversion to playing Rasmus goes farther back than merely the past two weeks. Rasmus has 403 plate appearances on the season and has started only 93 of the club’s 138 games, despite the fact that he hasn’t missed significant time before his recent injury. As a result of La Russa’s anti-Rasmus tendencies, along with the midseason trade of Ryan Ludwick, a grand total of 591 plate appearances have gone to Jay, Joe Mather, Randy Winn, Allen Craig, and Nick Stavinoha. This group, despite a .315 collective BABIP, have posted a meager .317 wOBA, and none of them provide the kind of defense Rasmus does.
The apparently superior approaches that La Russa has favored haven’t produced more than Rasmus to date and there’s nary a crystal ball that suggests that they will, even if the group is limited to Jay and Winn or Jay and Craig. Jay’s line, particularly once his .376 BABIP normalizes, screams average, and Craig’s isn’t much better. Winn is at replacement level this season and even at that level ZiPS suggests that he’s playing over his head.
Tony La Russa has been around long enough to suggest that he’s a good major league manager, but right now, it’s clear that his decisions are resulting in an inferior St. Louis Cardinals team on the field. Colby Rasmus is a 3-4 WAR player right now with 4-5 WAR potential, and in his stead, La Russa is fielding players at the league average or below. The Cardinals need to utilize every weapon they have to catch the Reds; the Cardinals are now six games back of the Reds, three games back of the Phillies, and have playoff odds below 25%. Without Rasmus on the field the Cardinals are killing their chances at October. As time goes on, one has to wonder if La Russa and his whopping .535 career winning percentage is worth keeping around if he will let personal feelings or just simply misguided judgments of talent keep players like Rasmus off the field. The questionable move has certainly cost the Cardinals in 2010 and if the Cardinals organization isn’t careful, they could lose out on a player who looks to be one of the premiere center field talents in baseball.
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Jack, how dare you question the smartest manager in baseball history? You must hate the Cardinals, America, and puppies.
And apple pie.
And your own mother!
Exactly…LaRussa is a baseball genius. I refuse to believe that he would do something to hurt his club.
As a fan of the Cardinals, few things have been more frustrating than seeing players like Randy Winn start instead of Rasmus. However, supposedly Rasmus has been sidelined the last couple of weeks with calf/leg issues, so that has something to do with his limited playing time lately.
It was happening before that though. Rasmus was sitting way more than most 23 year old up-the-middle players with 30HR power should sit even when he was completely healthy.*
*Yes, I only took note of this earlier this year because he’s on my fantasy team. Shut up.
How does management not step in and demand that Rasmus play? Does La Russa really have that much power in that organization? Seems absurd to let your second best player waste on the bench.
Did three out of (Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, and Carpenter) skip town?!? Holy crap!
You say that like Pujols isn’t the best player on the team, lol.
Of course he’s the franchise’s obvious best player. I’m just not sure Rasmus rates above any of the others as the franchise’s “second best” just yet.
Second best position player. It was implied.
La Russa has much more stroke within that organization than the GM, John Mozeliak. La Russa has the ear of the owner and that’s all that counts. It’s the La Russa-rules, baby!
/sad face
Management doesn’t step in because LaRussa IS management. Their GM is an i*iot, and I say that thinking I might be insulting i*iots everywhere. Almost every player he’s signed he’s overpaid, by a lot, almost every trade he’s overpaid in talent.
Colby Rasmus will be traded in the off season for pennies on the dollar. Yes. They are that stupid. There’s nothing Rasmus can or can’t do that will ever change LaRussa’s mind. It’s never happended before, it won’t happen with Rasmus.
They’re not going to trade Rasmus. You’re overreacting.
As a Jay’s fan this reminds me of the Travis Snider debates everyone in the Jay’s blogosphere have been having lately. Although in his case the choice is Fred Lewis and Snider of course isn’t close to providing the numbers Rasmus is having. Of course Jay is doing far better then Lewis too.
That is a surprise, I had honestly just assumed he was playing fulltime as always given his awesome overall numbers. Strange.
I’m a huge Cardinals fan and can’t understand for the life of me why Rasmus doesn’t play every day. I’ve noticed all season. The Cardinals need a new direction. Trading for less then replacement level players such as Pedro Feliz, and signing Randy Winn to play over Rasmus screams Kansas City Royals.
They don’t play Randy Winn over Rasmus. Only when Rasmus has been injured has Winn gotten any playing time in his place, with the possible exception of an off-day or two here or there.
Weissman,
Feliz has been a huge attribute….
Wow, surprising to see Rasmus with an Adam Dunn-esque 32.6% K%.
yeah that’s a strange figure for a center fielder for sure
Rasmus hits like a corner outfielder but carries a plus CF’s glove. I think you take the K-rate and run there.
and this is likely the biggest reason why the manager thinks he has a poor approach at the plate and benches him so frequently.
As a Reds fan, I wholly support LaGenius’s decision to bench one of his 3 above players. I just pray that Walt Jocketty isn’t considering bringing him to Cincy. I’d prefer Dusty and I’m no fan of Dusty’s.
Jocketty left St. Louis over a feud between him and LaRussa. I guarantee he won’t be in Cincinnati any time soon. I’d trade one for the other though.
You’re crazy. Jocketty ain’t the bees knees but you can’t argue with his results. While I would say LaRussa’s teams have vastly underperformed for most of his career as a manager.
I would trade Jocketty for Dave Duncan now that the Reds already have all that young pitching though.
The feud was between Jocketty and the SABR contingent in the front office, not Jockety and TLR
“Jocketty left St. Louis over a feud between him and LaRussa.”
That is simply not true in any way, shape, or form. Go look up the news stories from around that time.
I think its a little overblown. Rasmus has been injured which is why he has been relegated to pinch hitting. The trade of Ludwick was done with the idea of getting Jay and Rasmus on the field every day. It hasn’t been possible due to Rasmus’ injury. I’m not sure about Rasmus’ approach, but he is very streaky, and my guess is LaRussa feels he would be more consistent in his production if he had a little bit better approach. But yes, he should be playing every day when healthy. It’s been speculated that one of the two will not be back next season. Personally, I hope they both return, but if I had to choose one to go, it would be LaRussa, as long as it doesn’t affect Pujols’ re-signing.
If he’s injured, why don’t you put him on the DL, leave him on the DL, and let him fully recover instead of jerking him around. He’s not really that valuable on the bench, even if the Cardinals are an NL team.
DLing him for 15 days or however long, letting him recover to full capacity, and then relegating the Jay/Winn/Craig/Mather/Stavinoha monster to the bench
“If he’s injured, why don’t you put him on the DL, leave him on the DL, and let him fully recover instead of jerking him around. He’s not really that valuable on the bench, even if the Cardinals are an NL team.”
Because at the time of the injury, it wasn’t thought to be that severe. He made several pinch-hitting appearances along the way, which meant they couldn’t backdate his DL assignment so easily.
“DLing him for 15 days or however long, letting him recover to full capacity, and then relegating the Jay/Winn/Craig/Mather/Stavinoha monster to the bench.”
Mather is in AAA. Winn has mostly been a bench player. Jay would still start (in RF) with Rasmus in the lineup on most days.
If he’s legitimately injured, you’re playing with 24 men, which is already a disadvantage, even if he’s playing in a part time role.
If he’s too injured to be starting, then he should be on the DL with the objective being to get him back to full form and in the lineup as soon as possible. Having him completely unavailable for 15 games hurts your team MUCH less than having him as PH only for 30 games.
The problem with this injury is that they kept thinking he was close to returning and didn’t have a read on how severe it was from the beginning. Since he pinch hit when they thought he was close to returning, DLing him would have meant he might have been unavailable for a week or so after he had recovered to the point where he could play. Hindsight is great, but they didn’t have hindsight to work with. Plus, it’s not like there were any great options for them to call up from AAA.
once Rasmus masters the art of the productive out, he’ll get back in the lineup regularly
Yeah, he totally needs to learn to bunt so he’s more productive, no more of this homerun and double crap!
Exactly…bunting, sac hits, sac flies are where its at. The HR is a passing fad that will go away shortly. Bring back small ball and underarm pitching!
Yep. Can’t clog up the bases too much.
“once Rasmus masters the art of the productive out, he’ll get back in the lineup regularly”
I know it’s anti-Sabermetric to suggest this kind of thing, but there ARE situations when it makes sense to vary one’s approach (like with a runner on 3rd with less than two outs). Seemingly, he HAS struggled somewhat in those kinds of situations. I think that’s what La Russa means about his approach being inconsistent. He could improve in that area. He is obviously not opposed to him hitting HRs and doubles.
I don’t necessarily approve of the way TLR put his message across, but following Rasmus regularly, it does seem like there are aspects of his game he could improve despite him having pretty good numbers overall.
So, how does a raw 23 year old hitter improve his approach by sitting on the bench?
@WY — there are definitely ways in which Rasmus could improve his approach but he’s still, hands-down, the 2nd best OF on the team and 3rd best position player. That’s not even subject to debate. And the notion that he should sit b/c he’s not the best bunter in the world — he has been asked to sacrifice more than once this year — is preposterous.
what chuck said
And he won’t learn how to fix these things against major league pitching unless he… GASP…. actually gets consistent ABs against major league pitching.
Practice makes perfect, remember, and even “flawed approach” Rasmus is MUCH better than the alternatives.
I heart David Eckstein.
I’ll trade you Eckstein for Rasmus.
AND we added Pedro Feliz and his stellar offense. I’m not sure what everyone is so worked up about…
Pedro Feliz: Proving that a reputation for good defense is all that is necessary to continue to get playing time. It doesnt matter that his defense is terrible these days, his reputation still has an excellent UZR/150.
Well what Feliz lacks in pop, we get from Brendan Ryan. Man that kid has SPUNK! And GRIT!
Yessir, plenty of offense here… What, exactly, is the problem?
What Brendan Ryan lacks in offense, he may very well make up for in defense … and with a staff full of groundball pitchers ….. Ryan may not be a good example of ridiculing someone for defense, grit, and spunk in the absence of offense. I suppose one could throw Yadi in the same boat.
StL has often had a winning tradition of being “strong up the middle” in terms of defense, and it has often been a priority. I’m happy with Molina, Ryan, Rasmus when that occurs.
LaRussa constantly benches players he doesn’t like personally. As a longtime Cardinal fan, I don’t know how many times I had to watch Ray Lankford get benched in favor of Craig Paquette, Eric Davis, or Shawon Dunston in 2000 and 2001. JD Drew also seemed to get off 2 days a week even when he was healthy. Guys like So Taguchi or Aaron Miles got far more playing time then they ever deserved because LaRussa liked them. He’s a terrible, terrible manager. This Rasmus shit is also becoming the umpteenth blowout he’s had with one of his players (Scott Rolen, Ray Lankford, Tino Martinez, ect). In all of these cases, LaRussa is the first one to talk shit in public.
The guy has got to go.
Exactly, once a man is in LaRussa’s doghouse he derides you until you depart. He is an egomaniac and anyone who challenges that ego causes him to act like a three year old that had his toy stolen.
If the Cardinals keep LaRussa I’d love for them to trade Rasmus to the Mariners for a guy like Franklin Gutierrez who LaRussa is sure to love.
“He’s a terrible, terrible manager.”
Well, he’s not a perfect manager, but this is going a little too far.
A manager’s job in a pennant race is to give his team the best chance to win.
Rasmus on the bench isn’t doing that at all.
BX: He was injured. He sat one game after he was supposedly ready to go. I think you’re overreacting. One game where you (and maybe I, for that matter) disagree with his decision-making versus a stellar 30-year career as a manager. I’ll side with the latter.
This reminds me very much of the Travis Snider situation in Toronto.
Rather than giving playing time to the 22 year old potential star, we have to sit through Fred Lewis half the time. Not that i have anything against lewis, but Snider has proved that (before his wrist injury earlier this year) he can absolutely rake against major league pitching.
Not to mention the Jays arent even in a playoff race and have nothing to lose from starting Snider.
Especially considering that Bautista can slide over to 3B to make room in the OF.
He left Rasmus out of the lineup for one game, Sunday’s, after he had been injured for about two weeks. He was playing regularly before that. He’s had some other injuries earlier in the season that have lessened his playing time. Jay has been good, which is why he has played, but with Rasmus healthy, there’s no reason not to expect them to both be in the lineup, which is how things were after the Ludwick trade.
Also, Allen Craig seems to have some upside based on his minor league numbers, and he’s not in a position to take at bats from Rasmus. He plays the corner OF and was only starting alongside Jay when Rasmus was hurt.
“As a result of La Russa’s anti-Rasmus tendencies, along with the midseason trade of Ryan Ludwick, a grand total of 591 plate appearances have gone to Jay, Joe Mather, Randy Winn, Allen Craig, and Nick Stavinoha. This group, despite a .315 collective BABIP, have posted a meager .317 wOBA, and none of them provide the kind of defense Rasmus does.”
Jay does, at least based on the limited stats from this year. Ideally, though, both Jay and Rasmus are in the lineup together, with Craig filling in against lefties ow when someone needs a day off.
Has it ever occurred to the SABR community, that TLR actually has been attempting to protect & help Rasmus become a more complete player?
With a 33% strikeout rate & .260 BA, despite his 20+ HR, he’s a drag on the team offense confirmed conclusively by both umpires & pitchers across the league.
Pitchers already know & exploit the fact he’s a limited offensive player who’s only batting approach is attempting to hit a HR in EVERY situation whether the team needed situation warrants it or not.
So, while I agree Colby needs to play, he’s also been sidelined by a calf injury Cardinals management wanted to insure he was completely healed from & also to leverage the time-out to re-tool his approach while taking some pressure off this 23 yr old talented young man who was striking out at an accelerated rate before the injury.
For supposed data experts who present themselves as objective students of the game, you’d think it would be more representative to present a balanced argument other than the article’s supposition that selective use of Rasmus’ individual, non-game event contextual stats hold greater relevance than what LaRussa uses for managing an actual MLB team (not a fantasy league team).
As a Mariners fan I sure wish my team had players like Rasmus to ‘drag’ down their team offense.
What does it mean for a guy’s status as a “drag on the offense” to be “confirmed conclusively by umpires and pitchers around the league?”
Maybe you’re talking about strikeouts? That would be silly, though. Rasmus has a .351 OBP. NL average is .325. Who cares how Rasmus makes his outs? He makes fewer of them than most of the guys pitchers have to face in the NL. That’s a good thing. He’s also an excellent defensive center fielder, and the team’s best option at that important position.
Maybe LaRussa does have some kind of weird tough-love approach geared towards making Rasmus a more complete player. In the meantime, he’s systematically benched his team’s third-best player throughout the entire year, and then he badmouthed the kid publicly. All the while, his team has been falling farther and farther out of the postseason picture. That’s bad managing.
Exactly. The job of the manager is to use his players in a way that wins the most games. Not using Rasmus and his 130 wRC+ is stupid. It seems like sometimes TLR is more concerned about fielding a team with grit than a team with talent.
i love the “excellent” defense that is currently running a UZR/150 of -7.0 for the season. if that were the gold standard for defense lots of players (like dan uggla) would be winning gold gloves. clearly the kid has some power, sinse he’s projecting 25 hr, 65 rbi in his second season. but if the coach is asking him to use some at bats for team style like with RISP – when his averages drop – or recognizing that a BABIP 60 points higher than last year, or his time in the minors, is likely a fluke an working to correct that isn’t advice he should just blow off.
Rasmus is the 3rd best offensive player on that team. He’s hardly a “drag on the team’s offense.” He’s a legitimate 4-5 win player if allowed to play. It’s crunch time and the 3rd best offensive player needs to be playing everyday. It’s not the time to give him, Holliday, or Pujols days off. They need to play, regardless of his flaws offensively.
Listen, new school. We don’t need your fancy wRC’s and wOBA’s. Take your slide rules n’ protractors and…hang on, Scott Boras is calling.
Gentlemen:
Obviously, by your vigorous defense of the wOBA, RC24, WAR, etc stats you posit are great examples of why Rasmus should play, you are too deeply vested in your beliefs in the numbers only approach to seriously consider an alternative point of view.
The issue is NOT whether Rasmus should play (injury aside), but how he needs to contribute within the context of the STL lineup.
Slavish devotion to stats that do NOT capture true contribution to winning is short-sighted at best & reckless at worst.
Thank goodness for real world General Managers who put the stats within the proper context as ONE of many complimentary tools at their disposal when approaching roster construction.
You guys need to consider Mr. Tom Tango’s alternative approach over shrill cries of calling seasoned “winners” like TLR the modern day equivalent of neantherdal man.
To not do otherwise, is confirming the worst fears of baseball execs that SABR analysts are not well rounded, real-world grounded sources of stable recommendations to often time conflicting agendas all constrained by a process which can best be described as optimization of a cost constrained market basket.
I bid you farewell and appreciate your spirited, but ultimately self serving interests (and this site’s data preferences) to yourselves.
We can build a similar, not as elegantly appealing user interace, tool for our internal use without all the rancor.
Too bad Dave Cameron has to suffer the consequences of a less than beneficial “wisdom of the crowds” community.
OK this one made me register after two years of reading and using the site.
You guys are lucky to have this guy (Salty Old Dog ) posting here.
The long and short of why Rasmus doesn’t play everyday is his upper-cut swing. He hasn’t learned to take high pitches to the opposite field for the single and someday, hopefully, double. LaRussa probably believe this has to do with him being a young hard-head. Instead he tries to kill it and Ks against good teams and/or pitchers who know how to pitch and with decent control.
The best comparison lately would be to Pablo Sandoval.
LaRussa is trying to prevent what Bochy couldn’t, a massive fallout that kills most of a season a likely will effect a players entire career negatively instead of bringing up a great talent so that it can achieve at it’s highest. Either Rasmus ends up as an unpolished underachiever or on the Cardinals as the Jim Edmonds-plus they want him to be.
Who are we to judge the extent of his injuries and the need for a player who can hit overall on a SABER defined level AND situationally on a managerial level behind the great Holliday/Pujols combo?
The fact is Rasums is too easy to take out by quality pitching. Sure he rakes against slightly average a below, but that doesn’t always translate in to winning AND player development at the delicate balance which is being attempted.
IMO, TLR has had a dislike for Rasmus going back to his AA days. I’m not saying a dislike for him personally, but for his player type … it seems that Rasmus is the mega-talent that doesn;t grind it out enough for Tony’s pleasure.
While the cardinals were running Chris Duncan to LF, Rasmus stayd in the minors despite being the #5 prospect by BA. evidently, Rasmus did not work hard enough over the off-season to live up to TLR’s expectations.
I’m convinced, on occassion when Rasmus disappoints, TLR says “Dammit JD*, I mean Colby”. *JD Drew
TLR does love himself the Carney lansford’s and Skip Schumaker’s of the world though, probably because he was a similar type player in MiLB himself.
We can make TLR jokes all day long, but in the end … he wins. He is one the greatest managers ever, and he is intelligent, and he does often make good decisions. He came into StL and went to the NLCS with a team that the great Joe Torre couldn;t win with, and he’s won another WS and lost one in that time. So, while I complain about some stuff (namely the 2 hour 7th through 9th innings), I’ll sure take winning over losing.
This is why I did not like the Ludwick trade. I don;t think Jon jay is for real. Ludwick was solid, and I won’t have the see the “four clones” (Craig, Stavinoha, Mather, Winn, etc) in the OF. Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick, and Jay make a pretty solid OF … actually that would be one of the better OF’s around, since league average Ludwick would be the worst of the 3, yet still be reasonably paid.
He didn’t win with Torre’s team. He won when the Cardinals got a new ownership group that was much more committed to winning and spending money than the Busch family was in the last few years of their ownership. He won when Walt Jocketty gave him great players and consistently signed them to below-value contracts. La Russa’s had some truly great players during his run in St. Louis and while he may have had a significant hand in the successes of many of those teams, the time has come for him to leave. He’s essentially making personnel decisions beyond his paygrade b/c DeWitt has his back no matter what and because Mozeliak has been overpowered by his boss and the manager. He plays scrappy, blue-collar types over better players because he doesn’t know there are more stats than batting average and… batting average. His run should be over.
I was referring to 95 (Torre, 4th place) and 96 (LaRussa, leading ATL 3-1 in LCS).
Here are the changes, and they are mnore significant than I originally thought:
[1] Alicea replaces Oquendo at 2B
[2] Clayton replaces Cromer at SS
[3] Gaetti replaces Cooper at 3B
[4] Gant replaces Gilkey in LF
[5] Benes brother and Todd Stottlemeyer added to rotation.
IMO, not a whole lot of upgrade in the lineup, but the pitching upgrades were major.
Everyone is forgetting the biggest “TLR pisses em off” situation of all, promising an open competition to Clayton and Ozzie in Spring Training,then when Ozzie outplayed Clayton …. Clayton started, and Ozzie hasn’t been back to a StL ballgame.
This reminds me of the Mike Napoli situation with the Angels. I know Scioscia and TLR must do some things right to win, but these guys are probably the type to sit down with you and me and tell stories of how they had to walk 20 miles in the snow just to get to school, etc. They rather take the crappy guy that has lots of grit versus the talented guy that has some flaws, but seems lazy since things come rather effortlessly to them.
These old school guys just overvalue grit. I guess it’s because they are only human and grew up in a different era. Old habits die hard.
Rasmus has been sidelined with a calf pull! get your info right!!!
Well Rasmus has fought a few injuries and that’s been the cause of most of his bench-riding recently. The situation on Sunday was just plain strange but I don’t think La Russa’s out to get the kid or anything. I do, however, think his run as the Cardinals manager should end after this season. His overmanaging has become demonstrably harmful and his influence with the front office has gotten far too big. No other organization would allow Aaron Miles and his BABIP-inflated ~.310 wOBA to be a semi-regular in a pennant race while Tyler Greene languishes in minor league hell… and that says it all right there.
Tyler Greene or Aaron Miles?
That’s like asking me if I would rather be kicked in the left or right testicle.
Some reports say it is a legit calf strain. Other reports are stating the calf strain is just the official, not actually, reason given.
Somebody call C-Ras and see what’s up with him and TLR.
Is it possible that Colby Rasmus is just the new J.D. Drew?
More than a possibility; why LaRussa is doing the things to make a positive difference with the kid before he becomes the next edition of Drew.
Need I remind you Drew’s agent was none other than Scott Boras, who many have likened to the Devil himself for the impact he’s had on MLB the past 20 years.
Closely related, Boras’ clients like ARoid have epitomized the nadir of Roid Ball hitters who manage to churn out prodigious HR & RBI totals, but have been widely viewed with MLB as not clutch players truly deserving of their monster contracts.
Bottomline, in the case of Rasmus, as the potentially next Drew, winning is the only currency that matters in baseball now, then, & in the future.
Can any of you experts conclusively point out with WAR that Rasmus ACTUALLY generates wins by himself?
Anything less than that prove & I suspect your stats, while of interest to core readers of this site, are not enough to make that claim hold up on the field.
Winning is winning, stats should directly describe that winning not be derivatives to justify players who aren’t clutch as somehow being worthy of even thing more.
Probably why LaRussa sees Rasmus as exactly what Drew became: a self centered, HR only hitter who just didn’t contribute to winning baseball….but his agent sure made the case with obscure stats to get him paid.
Stick to fantasy baseball guys; your stats only apply within that obscure world.
The saddest thing about your post, Red Squirrel, is that it is not said tongue in cheek. Stick to fantasy baseball, really? That is your core defense of the baseless trotting of inferior players out to the field by TLR? I suppose all that winning in games in which Rasmus didn’t start in CF in August must be where you draw your conclusion, I mean 4-9 is good right? Oh wait, no, no it is not. My suggestion, before you come on and make baseless claims of Rasmus being a selfish player who hinders the Cardinals ability to win, you actually do some good old fashion research, otherwise you’ll come off as a chuckle head who blindly throws stones at a group of thinkers whom you don’t understand.
RoidBall era players + RoidBall stats = Selfishly, bad baseball which MLB is distancing itself away from ever since ’96 PED testing with penalties.
WAR is digital snake-oil that should be “misremembered” along with PED infused players over emphasis on limited aspects of what makes a total MLB player valuable to team winning.
Time to give WAR a rest, along with the HGH + Steroids which fueled it’s use.
Do you know what makes up WAR? No, of course not, that would require research into the backwards world of sabermetrics (I say the last part sarcastically). You do realize WAR incorporates defense, you know, something that wasn’t emphasized during the RoidBall Era as you so foolishly put it right? Come on dude, get a clue before posting, seriously, you are just coming off as an agitated meatball who doesn’t have a clue. I’m sorry the times of a player’s value being entirely tied to his batting average have passed. What are your thoughts on UZR Red Squirrel? I mean, obviously players such as Derek Jeter, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, etc. must be deserving of their gold gloves in season’s past, they made highlights on ESPN. Who cares about guys who are able to make those highlight plays in a routine fashion due to taking better routes, having better range/arms/etc. I don’t often like to be so snarky towards those who don’t support sabermetrics, but some people just piss me off with their completely off base assanine unsuported thinking. Sure, stats aren’t the be all end all, but throwing ones head in the sand like an ostrich or plugging ones ears and shouting these stats don’t/shouldn’t exist is a three year old esque response.
Josh Shepardson
The question is and still remains unanswered:
“Can any of you experts conclusively point out with WAR that Rasmus ACTUALLY generates wins by himself?”
Step aside from your unrelenting arrogance for one minute & simply answer the question.
And, yes, I’ve done my research based on data & observation, Rasmus wouldn’t have made a significant difference during that 4-9 W/L stretch because he was injured & unable to play.
Red Squirrel,
You are correct, I must be arrogant to distrust your expert explanation that Rasmus wouldn’t have had an impact on the Cards going 4-9 when he didn’t start in August, simply because you said so. He was clearly injured enough to go on the DL, and it kept him from pinch hitting. The fact is, his injury appears to be an excuse for TLR to have gotten his way and gotten Rasmus time to “work on his approach,” that TLR doesn’t like.
All these new fangled stats that people follow must be hog wash, because they don’t measure scrappiness, and grit. Can you ACTUALLY point out with facts, that scrappiness, and grit from one individual player result in wins for a team, of course not, you can simply complain about a stat you don’t understand.
The component stats that make up WAR illustrate a players worth, maybe they don’t perfectly measure how many wins a player is worth on their lonesome. The fact is, WAR values defense at premium positions more than defense at non-premium positions, as it should. WAR takes into account getting on base, which while you may view getting on base as simply, “clogging the bases,” it is rather difficult, or should I say impossible, to score runs without hitting a home run or reaching base and ultimately making it around to home plate.
I get it, you’re disgruntled for whatever reason with all these new stats. It’s cool, we are all just a bunch of arrogant baseball nerds surfing fan graphs in your eyes. I am proud to be king of the arrogant on this site in your eyes because I don’t care for your snarky dismissal of WAR. Thanks for yet another worthless post, enjoy the ESPN message boards.
Hi, I love WAR! It keeps me gainfully employed: gouging gullible GMs with huge long term contracts for players with gaudy stats that really aren’t very clutch like Holliday or A-Rod. Just don’t tell them our little secret about WAR over WPA use. I don’t want to lose anymore clients!
Forget about WAR Mr. Boras, I won’t be fooled. I’ll take scrap and fill out my roster with good ol’ fashion baseball players like Jason Kendall, Rick Ankiel, Jose Guillen, Yuniesky Betancourt and Scott Podsednik. Who needs WAR when I can have grit!
Josh Shepardson:
I understand WAR and its components much more than I let on. I also understand its limitations as a practical tool for a field mgr to rely on; especially for defense due to underlying components like UZR are plagued by subjective & inconsistent data collection methods cause the wide yr to yr variances.
Bottomline point, winning is the only currency which matters in MLB.
There are tools on this set which allow for a more contextually meaningful understanding of actual player contribution to winning; not extrapolations on top of averages, on top of more extrapolations.
Extrapolating selective, aggregated statistics out of the context of actual game play and not capturing the inter-relationships between lineup players is the chief point you’re missing with metrics like WAR.
Clutch performance is not luck because your stats you’re using just so happen to not capture that behavior.
Fact remains, Rasmus is a player who’s actual game play doesn’t contribute to his team’s win pct like you suggest based on WAR for the simple fact a mgr doesn’t care about how he performs to league average replacement, but rather how he performs relative to the rest of the team.
His mgr does care how well he performs in executing the game plan within the context of his role within the lineup and game situations as needed.
His stats, used by MLB managers league wide, illustrate that he’s an easy out, doesn’t clutch up when his team is behind or close. But, sure he’ll jack a HR in non-crucial situations every blue moon, while the vast majority of the time he’s striking out or flying out instead of doing constructive team 1st things like advancing a runner or making the 2-strike adjustment to increase his chances of putting the ball in play vs none at all.
Rasmus has struck out nearly 2x more than Pujols while generating 1/2 the HR in less AB’s. Colby has managed to regress this yr from last year even though his underlying toolset is still there & his manager can see that.
He’s what we call in the biz a “floater”: a player who rides on the coat tails of other more productive players, but doesn’t contribute much to actual wins.
Unless he makes adjustments to his batting approach, he will continue to be a .270 BA w/ 25 HRs & 150 strikeout type player which with his tools is a real shame because he’s counted on to be a more cost effective & upgraded replacement to the guy (Ankiel) who was allowed to go F/A for similar reasons.
Final note on this thread, I’ve monitored FG for many, many years. What’s a even bigger shame than Rasmus right now, is how the site apparently has been over-run by a dramatically different authorship & commenters akin to fantasy leaguers vs the early days of SABR who at least made a valid attempt to tie their stat analysis to real world game play.
Good bye, gentlemen – I leave you to your secular world of total abstraction from how real MLB operates.
Would the Rockies offer Car-Go for Rasmus? Would you take it if they did?
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100906&content_id=14353780¬ebook_id=14354316&vkey=notebook_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
Lots of fools on here talking out their butts.
Sounds like Colby is a smack talker and he is apparently a big time daddys boy. He needs to shut his mouth and listen to LaRussa and maybe he will do much better with the team. Colby even managed to piss off Pujols.
Also a side note Colby has the 3rd most stike out % in the league.
I am also a very big Cardinals fan, but I dont like stories of a player being cocky.
I read the article and I don;t see where there’s info about him smack talking or being a daddy’s boy.
There is a report of a trade request, but then the GM says it was never presented to him. Who knows?
It would not be the first time a talented person wanted to go elsewhere after their first encounter with criticism or failure. It’s been my experience in the business world that when someone gets an evaluation that is beloiw their expectation, their first response if never “I’m gonna work harder and improve”, but rather ‘If they don’t want me, I’ll go somewhere else”
I really cannot condemn some of these young guys for being cocky. I know how I was in my early 20s. Had a been the most talented guy on the field everywhere I went, I might have been downright annoying (okay, more annoying). There’s a fine line between confident and cocky, and I’ll take cocky with talent as long as it doesn’;t represent itself as selfish and under-performance.
You gotta play this game with fear and arrogance.
Fear and ignorance.
No, not fear and ignorance you hayseed, fear and arroagance.
I know, I just like seeing you get all worked up.
You know the movie.
IMO, Rasmus’s behavior is simply typical or average for today’s phenoms. When the first time you hear suggestions that you’re anything but great is at the ML level, it’s gotta be tough to take (given their past experiences).
There is no doubt about his talent, but I am thinking the reason he got set down for a while was his attitude. I dont have any proof but when Pujols makes a comment on a player you know Rasmus made a mistake. It is hard to say how the press approached Pujols though so we never know the whole story.
The kid hits .262 with RISP while striking out 40% of those at bats.
For a 23 yr old if I was his doctor, he need a prescription for RISP Viagra!
what’s interesting is that LaRussa’s argument about his swing for the fences might hold some water. Of the three closest NL OPS to Rasmus and two most similar AL OPS (Howard, Hart, Uggla, Swisher, Teixeira), only teixeira has more RBIs off of HRs than non-HRs (52-49). Howard is 50:50, Hart 44 off of HR, 47 not; uggla is 43 off of HR, 51 not; swisher is 39 off HR, 43 not. Rasmus in constrast is 36 off of HR, 26 not. Ignoring for now the fact that he also has significantly fewer RBI total than any of those five guys who are batting in similar line-up spots and have the same OPS, his HR/non-HR split would seem to indicate an inability to produce runs when the ball stays in the park.
Moreover, batting behind Pujols and Holliday (52:52 and 44 off HR:50 not, respectively) Rasmus should see plenty of baserunners to drive in.
Therefore, if LaRussa is trying to make him a more effective ballplayer, I’m not sure why everyone seems to disagree with him.