Reasons to Be Wary of Carlos Pena
While there are still some intriguing pitchers left on the free agent market — Roy Oswalt chief among them — the free agent pool for hitters is rapidly drying up. Prince Fielder is still on the market, but outside of him, there is little offense to be found outside of a trade. Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Brad Hawpe — all these guys have some sort of offensive upside, but not much.
As a result of this dearth of offense, one player is beginning to get some attention on the rumor mill: Carlos Pena. Pena looks like the best remaining free agent option for teams looking to add offense (again, in the non-Prince-Fielder crowd), as he hit 28 home runs and posted a .354 wOBA last season with the Cubs. He may be getting older, but there’s still plenty of pop in his bat.
There was wide speculation that the Yankees could sign Pena to fill their hole at DH, but according to a recent report from Jon Heyman, it seems as though they may not have the payroll space to sign him. But there is still a wide number of teams interested in Pena: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Indians, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, and Rays (according to MLBTR, at least).
Despite Pena being the best remaining hitter on the market, though, there are some reasons teams should be wary about guaranteeing him too much money: his BABIP, power production, and platoon splits.
Don’t expect BABIP regression. If you glance at Pena’s player profile, it’s easy to make the assumption that he’s been the victim of some bad bounces these past few seasons. His batting average has hovered around .225 in two of the last three seasons (and it was below .200 in the third season), due in large part to his high strikeout rate (27-28%) and low batting average on balls in play. His .267 BABIP in 2011 was actually his best BABIP since 2008, and the three projections listed on his page have him ranging anywhere from a .266 to .283 BABIP in 2012.
Considering that Pena’s career BABIP is .278, it seems reasonable to expect him to finally regress and to post a better batting average as a result. That’s forgetting one thing, though: Pena’s BABIP and average tanked right after teams started to heavily shift on him. He posted a .298 BABIP in his first two seasons with the Rays, but then Joe Maddon’s unconventional use of the shift received national attention during the 2008 playoffs. Many American League teams responded the next season by heavily shifting against Pena, and his BABIP has never been the same since. His .267 BABIP last season was probably the most we should expect from him these days.
In many ways, Pena has become a three outcome guy: he either hits a deep flyball, strikes out, or grounds into the teeth of the shift. He’s most successful when he hits a low amount of ground balls, but that’s easier said than done.
Don’t forget Wrigley’s park factors. Considering that Pena was 33 years old last season — around the time when many power hitters begin to decline — it was encouraging to see his power production remain so strong. He hit 28 home runs, exactly as many as he hit the previous year in Tampa Bay, and he had 58 total extra base hits and a .237 ISO. Pena derives much of his offensive production from his power and plate discipline, so his 2011 performance shows that he still has plenty in the tank.
When you take Wrigley Field’s park factors into account, though, things look slightly less rosy for Pena. It’s well known that Wrigley is a hitter’s park, and that is doubly true for left-handed hitters; it increases left-handed homerun production by 19%, and it also provides a 6% boost in doubles as well. Considering that Tropicana Field is the exact opposite — it decreases left-handed home run power by 11% — Pena’s 28 home runs as a Cub looks a little bit less impressive.
Going forward, Pena’s true talent power production is likely lower than it was last season (.237 ISO), but higher than it was with the Rays in 2010 (.211 ISO). That’s still a respectable amount of power, but it does mean that Pena’s no longer among the most powerful hitters in the league. He’s now more of a Corey Hart or Logan Morrison type power hitter, good for 25 homeruns and maybe a bit more.
Platoon issues? Pena used to be fairly effective against both hands, but in recent years, his performance against left-handed pitchers has dramatically declined. Just check out his wOBA splits:
| vs. L | vs. R | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 0.295 | 0.419 |
| 2009 | 0.352 | 0.389 |
| 2010 | 0.305 | 0.334 |
| 2011 | 0.266 | 0.383 |
In three of the last four seasons, Pena has been at best a .300 wOBA hitter against left-handed pitchers. In 2011, he was just as effective against right-handed hitters as he was back when he was successful in Tampa Bay, but his performance against left-handed pitchers dropped off a cliff. So the question is: how much of this was a small sample size fluke, and how much of this was talent related? How much regression should we expect?
Depending on the roster construction of the team acquiring him, it might be ideal to platoon Pena and only play him against right-handed pitchers. The Rays could conceivably do something along these lines, but if this is their plan, they would likely not want to pay him like a full-time player.
So despite being the best non-Prince-Fielder hitter still on the free agent market, there are plenty of questions and concerns about Carlos Pena. He’s not the offensive juggernaut that he was back in 2008-2009, and with some BABIP and ISO regression, his 2.6 WAR from last season look like an optimistic, high-end projection for him. And if a team acquires him to be a DH, his WAR total would take a bit of a tumble.
Pena likely won’t get much on the free agent market, and teams are justified if they don’t want to pay him as much as he received last season with the Cubs ($10 million). He’s a good extra part for teams looking to supplement their existing offense, but if a team is looking at Pena as a solution to their offensive woes, they likely aren’t going to be happy with what they receive.
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Based on your argument it seems like his value would be maximized if the Yankees signed him. The park factor, and the fact that they would platoon him, would get the most utility out of his bat. I guess the DH would hurt him, but would the Yankees even care?
I believe a platoon of Andruw Jones and Pena is worth to the Yankees the 2 million already committed to Jones plus say 8 million for Pena. But they would lose the flexibility in the DH spot, I don’t think they will sign him
Vlad. He’d likely take another paycut because he “only” hit .290, people think he totally sucked just cause relative to the rest of his career .290 is bad, but compared to these .225 hitters mentioned he’s still effective.
Plus he’s made it clear he wants a shot at 500HRs so, give him 3 mil, promise him ABs and he also gets a shot at a ring…everyone wins.
How do you read this article (or maybe you didn’t) and drop batting average in the comments? Guerrero had a .318 wOBA and 95 wRC+ last year. No one wants that.
Thing is, no one knows how anyone will improve or not. Chemistry matters. Pena goes for money maybe, but if he wants a longer career then NYY or Baltimore look like his best bets. After all, one can’t predict how the team around a guy will play if you have no idea what that team is. Who knew Berkman would play like that, or Pie would be so horrible, or Colon so decent? Pena should sign for a short-porch RF team, IMO, but what does he want?
I like this guy, I’d give him a short term deal for my team.
ok, im going to be the guy who responds to this comment, even though 99% of the readers of this site wouldn’t bother to waste their time……you do realize that he hit “only .290″ but his on base percentage was “only .317″, right? with 13 HR in 590 PA’s. Vlad’s walk rate has been decreasing every year from 2008, and was a lowly 2.9% this season. compared to those .225 hitters, he’s really quite terrible. now, he could rebound a small amount in 2012, and for a team that can afford to risk a little money on him, they just might get some reward. but for most teams mentioned in this article, they simply can’t afford to waste any money on players, especially 37 yr old DH’s.
With hitting being so bad last year, a few teams could use Vlad. I’m sure he’ll do better this year, and has bounced back before from injuries et al. He may only have 1 good year left, who knows? But he isn’t injury prone, a steroid junkie, a jerk, a quitter, lazy….
Guerrero is almost 37. In last year’s “down” offensive environment, he was worth 0.0 WAR.
He doesn’t really put butts in seats anymore and, by definition, he is basically a replacement-level player. No MLB team should be signing a 37 year old DH who profiles at replacement-level. Every team should have a younger, replacement-level (or, hopefully, someone better) to plug in to their DH slot for under $500K.
As a transplanted Jersey guy living in Chitown the past few years, this is what I saw of Pena. Great teammate and stand up guy in a clubhouse full of entitled losers who couldn’t be bothered with addressing their or their team’s short comings. Big plus there. Always helped the kids too. Huge holes in his swing, so bad that he looked overmatched in many at bats. However, saw him lose many homers and shots off the wall because of the North Wind blowing in off the lake. Fields well. Maybe our ( Yankee ) hitting coach can fix or reduce the size of his mechanical flaws and get him to take advantage of the jet stream out to right center, which is his power. For three million.
I think signing Pena to be a DH would be a huge waste, not as bad as putting Crawford out in the tiny area in front of the Green Monster at Fenway, but still not a good use of his abilities. Pena is a pretty solid three outcome hitter who will hit a lot of home runs no matter where he plays, strike out a ton and get some walks. He is also a pretty good first baseman (although probably not a Gold Glover notwithstanding 2008). He is a leader on the field and a great teammate, and using him as a DH would limit his value.
Pena should go to a team that needs a first baseman and that has a manager who will maximize Pena’s effectiveness by picking good spots to rest him against tough lefties that present match-up problems. It would also help Pena to be in a lineup with guys in front of him who get on base and put pressure on the defense by stealing lots of bases, making it tougher to get away with a huge shift every at bat. Pena brings a great attitude and veteran leadership that will help any clubhouse, especially one with lots of younger players who could use a veteran position player to look up to. Hopefully there is a team out there that needs these skills and is a good fit to maximize his talents (cough- Rays- cough).
In short: Mr. Pena, we love you here in Tampa and really miss having you on the team. I know you miss us too. It is currently 70 degrees and sunny, and a run on Bayshore or around DI with BJ beats the heck out of training in some gym in New York or Chicago. Please, please come back! I know you can probably make more money elsewhere, but we have no income tax and really cheap real estate right now which will make your money go a lot farther than it will in other cities. Plus, if you come back I will happily take you out for grouper anywhere you want to go once a month.
Check out Pena’s split stats from last year. At the end of April he had accumulated a .159 avg, 2 runs, 5 rbis, and 0 HR. For the rest of the year, he was a solid source of power and did hit for a much better avg, probably closer to .240. I think to say that he does not have 30+ HR power would be incorrect. If he gets off to a decent start to the season, I would be shocked to see him hit less than the 28 HR he put up last year, that is assuming he is getting close to full playing time.
Pena would be welcome back to Tampa. We loved him and hated to see him leave. If he goes to the Yankees it will be a loss.