Rebuilding in the Nation’s Capital
At 343-466, the revival of baseball in Washington D.C. has not gone as planned since the relocation of the Montreal Expos in 2005. Two straight 59 win seasons certainly signal a rebuilding era ahead for a team that in 2005 held a playoff spot for 38 games in June and July and was within 4.5 games in August.
Former GM Jim Bowden didn’t put the Nationals in a position to win, as acquisitions such as Lastings Milledge (which was not necessarily a bad deal, but a poor result), Austin Kearns, Emilio Bonifacio, and Wily Mo Pena combined with poor prospect development (outside of Ryan Zimmerman, of course) to result in some very poor teams on the field in the nation’s capital.
The quality of the new leadership in Washington, captained by Mike Rizzo, remains to be seen. One thing is for sure. Come 2011, he will not be able to make the excuse that he was hamstrung by the signings of the previous regime.
The Washington Nationals should be expected to field a payroll of approximately 60 million dollars once again, after actually increasing their payroll 6 million dollars over the 2008 team. This offseason, $14.35 million will come off the books in the form of Dmitri Young, Nick Johnson, Joe Beimel (who was traded to the Rockies at the deadline), Wil Ledezma, Josh Bard, and Julian Tavarez.
Certainly, that is not enough to allow the Nationals to spend their way into contention. In 2010, however, a veritable flurry of contracts will expire. In fact, the only non-arbitration, non-minimum contract dollars the Nationals have committed in 2011 are to Ryan Zimmerman. This time, it’s 22.5 million dollars, via Adam Dunn, Cristian Guzman, Austin Kearns, and Willie Harris.
By 2011, the Nationals will be free of all the moves made in the Jim Bowden era. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper (we assume) will be in the organization and possibly even in the majors. Jordan Zimmermann showed potential before his injury and Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best players in the majors. Nyjer Morgan is a tremendous fielder, and Ian Desmond is a bright spot as a SS prospect. Now what remains to be seen is if Mike Rizzo can put a competitive team around these core players.
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Kearns will also be bought out this year, so that’s more money off the books in 2010.
Maybe they should hire Steve Phillips as an adviser, I hear he’s available.
I know it’s becoming a joke that you can trade anything to GMDM, but don’t Guzman and Harris seem pieces that the Royals would (wrongly) covet? Worth a try at least.
Would Nats dare take Meche off KC’s books with a Guzman/Harris package? I know Nats need more financial flexibility but, back issues aside, Meche always struck me as someone who would do very well in the NL. Just a thought.
There is certain room for optimism among Nationals fans. I think if a compelling offer comes along for Dunn at the deadline next year, it might be wise to take it. Chris Marrero, while some distance away, hopefully will be able to take the 1B job in ’11 (although lack of pop in AA was a little concerning). Derek Norris has shown flashes of talent, although it’s a shame he will miss the fall league. Flores isn’t a liability with the bat or glove (granted sss), although it is tough to ignore injuries that have slowed him down. The front office would be wise to follow the lead of the Zimmerman deal and secure some of their young contributing position players for less money and more time now than dole out overpriced contracts to the likes of Guzman, Kearns, Pena, et. al. to band-aid a bullet wound.
If Detwiler can become a reliable #4 or #5 I’d be satisfied with what the organization gets out of him for his cost. However, it’s clear this team lacks a major-league impact starting pitcher at the front end of the rotation (pardon me for pessimism regarding Strasburg until he has demonstrated his ability on the field). Even more glaring is the revolving door of the bullpen.
With the new administration getting all of the front office and clubhouse positions in place, I think fans will have some leeway vis a vis expected success. However, given the franchises’ abysmal record cited above, it won’t be very much.
If Detwiler can become a reliable #4 or #5
If 4s and 5s were reliable, wouldn’t they be 2s and 3s? Given the inherent variation in pitching, especially mediocre pitching, you aren’t going to get much consistency out of them.
Yes, I’m being a little snarky, but this is something that’s bugged me for a while.
I’m probably off with equating reliability to league average performance. The truth is, I be very pleased to get league average performance out of him for the duration of his contract into his arb. years (eligible in ’11). The expectation is that Strasburg-Zimmermann-Lannan (ugh. I wonder when his peripherals are going to catch up to him) will lead the way in ’11.
Is hoping for too much? Entirely likely, especially when the Savior hasn’t pitched one meaningful inning, JZ is coming off Tommy John and Lannan is outpitching his FIP by a run. No snarkiness taken, but Detwiler’s performance so far did not merit inclusion in a prospective top 3 on the basis of talent and performance of the names mentioned above. Again, this is altogether different from saying “it’s certain to be a solid rotation”, but I don’t think it is horrible either, especially in light of how the rotation has been in the past few years.
I’m probably off with equating reliability to league average performance. The truth is, I be very pleased to get league average performance out of him for the duration of his contract into his arb. years (eligible in ’11). The expectation is that Strasburg-Zimmermann-Lannan (ugh. I wonder when his peripherals are going to catch up to him) will lead the way in ’11.
Is it hoping for too much? Entirely likely, especially when the Savior hasn’t pitched one meaningful inning, JZ is coming off Tommy John and Lannan is outpitching his FIP by a run. No snarkiness taken, but Detwiler’s performance so far did not merit inclusion in a prospective top 3 on the basis of talent and performance displayed by the names mentioned above. Again, this is altogether different from saying “it’s certain to be a solid rotation”, but I don’t think it is horrible either, especially in light of how the rotation has been in the past few years.
To me, in this case reliable refers to the skill set not necessarily the game by game result. In which case a pitcher with not enough top end talent can consistently give you enough innings of decent baseball to be considered a reliable 4 or 5. I think there are probably plenty of inconsistent 2s and 3s although I have never really cared much for the numbering talent system beyond a secondary description of prospect upside.
The funny thing is, Big Oil, Detwiler (v. Lannan) is the one with the run better FIP and the positive value fastball. Walks too many, but has a BABIP that looks flukey high. I’ve been high on him, so it would not surprise me if he ends up your #3 and Lannan #4, eventually.
JCA: Agreed on that. I thought the relationship was interesting as well. I suppose Lannan’s placement at “#3″ (although we’d both probably agree that as far as the designation is concerned, it isn’t really significant) was my weighting quantity of innings pitched more heavily over raw quality subconsciously. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them flip-flop at all on the WAR total as Detwiler becomes a regular.
I’m going to nitpick a little bit with this statement:
“One thing is for sure. Come 2011, he will not be able to make the excuse that he was hamstrung by the signings of the previous regime.”
Being left with virtually no quality players is not being hamstrung? Yes, it is better to have no players than have a roster filled with crappy players, but it would be better yet to have at least a few quality players left behind. Basically, they’ll have Zimmerman and a bunch of minor-leaguers. It’ll be years before they are a .500 team.
That said, the basic point, that they will have a clean slate to start over, is fair enough. I do tend to think though that DC baseball is just cursed…
Look, what the dearth of long-term contracts should mean to the Nats is that they can really make an impact through free agency if they decide to act like the top-10 market they are. Their payroll has been in or near the bottom five in baseball for a while, while they turn one of the largest profits in the game. It’s always said that you can’t just buy your way into contention, but the Nats could sure try if they upped the payroll to the $90 mil range. D.C.’s a frontrunning town, and they’ll sell out the stadium for a contender.
the nyjer morgan trade was a huge step in the right direction. They could probably get a decent haul for Adam Dunn, especially if he goes to the AL. They have a lot of offensive wild cards like Jesus Flores, Elijah Dukes, Justin Maxwell, and Ian Desmond. Who knows maybe all these guys play to their potential next year and support some of the mainstays in the lineup.
The big problem is pitching, there isn’t really a solution in sight. Maybe the could try to do something like the Mariners did and field a bunch of gold glove players to help out the pitching staff.
Does anyone else see Adam Dunn as a match for the Yankees? Maybe they could get a Phil Hughes/Brad Suttle combo for him.
I am big on JMax. I know his sample is very small, but the dude was very good when he played this year .357 wOBA and +25.3 UZR/150 in the OF. I am really hoping he takes RF away from Dukes in the spring, or at least makes Dukes get waaaay better to keep it (.312 wOBA and UZR/150 of -5.8 in RF).
As for the pitching, you guys are giving up on the young arms of the NATS way to quickly. Go and look at the career stats of Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson in their early 20s. They both really stunk, and i am sure they are not alone. Both had ERAs and likely FIPS over 5. Guys like Martis (104 innings MLB caree,r 2008 AAA FIP 3.10 2.5 K/BB), Detwiler (73.2 innings MLB career, AAA FIP 3.24), Stammen (105 innings MLB career, AA FIP in 2008 2.78), Martin (77 innings MLB career, AAA Fip 2.77 and a 6/1 K/BB) all have a solid shot at being average to above major league starters for years if quality defenders are put behind them. All their MLB samples are way to small to right them off at all. I would use 2010 to find these guys out!
@nats fan
you can use the same argument you used for you as a way against you. No team wants to enter a season with so many question marks. A lot of things need to go right for the Nationals next year.
Well I am not expecting them to win 90 games for sure. But I think the young arms could easly pitch them to 75 wins (without Strassburg and Zimmermann) if the defense and bullpen are both significantly improved (big ifs). And those same arms could win 85-90 in 2010 with Strassburg and Zimmermann with some solid luck.
I watched them all pitch allot this season and if the defense had been much better and the bullpen could hold runners more often the results for all 4 of these guys could have been much better!
I would be very happy with 75 wins after the three year long nightmare I’ve had to watch.