Comments on: Rebuilding in the Nation’s Capital http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: gnomez http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103390 gnomez Thu, 22 Oct 2009 03:29:30 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103390 Does anyone else see Adam Dunn as a match for the Yankees? Maybe they could get a Phil Hughes/Brad Suttle combo for him. Does anyone else see Adam Dunn as a match for the Yankees? Maybe they could get a Phil Hughes/Brad Suttle combo for him.

]]> By: Nats Fan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103346 Nats Fan Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:58:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103346 I would be very happy with 75 wins after the three year long nightmare I've had to watch. I would be very happy with 75 wins after the three year long nightmare I’ve had to watch.

]]> By: Nats Fan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103344 Nats Fan Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:49:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103344 Well I am not expecting them to win 90 games for sure. But I think the young arms could easly pitch them to 75 wins (without Strassburg and Zimmermann) if the defense and bullpen are both significantly improved (big ifs). And those same arms could win 85-90 in 2010 with Strassburg and Zimmermann with some solid luck. I watched them all pitch allot this season and if the defense had been much better and the bullpen could hold runners more often the results for all 4 of these guys could have been much better! Well I am not expecting them to win 90 games for sure. But I think the young arms could easly pitch them to 75 wins (without Strassburg and Zimmermann) if the defense and bullpen are both significantly improved (big ifs). And those same arms could win 85-90 in 2010 with Strassburg and Zimmermann with some solid luck.

I watched them all pitch allot this season and if the defense had been much better and the bullpen could hold runners more often the results for all 4 of these guys could have been much better!

]]> By: Brian Recca http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103340 Brian Recca Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:30:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103340 @nats fan you can use the same argument you used for you as a way against you. No team wants to enter a season with so many question marks. A lot of things need to go right for the Nationals next year. @nats fan

you can use the same argument you used for you as a way against you. No team wants to enter a season with so many question marks. A lot of things need to go right for the Nationals next year.

]]> By: Nats Fan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103337 Nats Fan Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:19:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103337 I am big on JMax. I know his sample is very small, but the dude was very good when he played this year .357 wOBA and +25.3 UZR/150 in the OF. I am really hoping he takes RF away from Dukes in the spring, or at least makes Dukes get waaaay better to keep it (.312 wOBA and UZR/150 of -5.8 in RF). As for the pitching, you guys are giving up on the young arms of the NATS way to quickly. Go and look at the career stats of Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson in their early 20s. They both really stunk, and i am sure they are not alone. Both had ERAs and likely FIPS over 5. Guys like Martis (104 innings MLB caree,r 2008 AAA FIP 3.10 2.5 K/BB), Detwiler (73.2 innings MLB career, AAA FIP 3.24), Stammen (105 innings MLB career, AA FIP in 2008 2.78), Martin (77 innings MLB career, AAA Fip 2.77 and a 6/1 K/BB) all have a solid shot at being average to above major league starters for years if quality defenders are put behind them. All their MLB samples are way to small to right them off at all. I would use 2010 to find these guys out! I am big on JMax. I know his sample is very small, but the dude was very good when he played this year .357 wOBA and +25.3 UZR/150 in the OF. I am really hoping he takes RF away from Dukes in the spring, or at least makes Dukes get waaaay better to keep it (.312 wOBA and UZR/150 of -5.8 in RF).

As for the pitching, you guys are giving up on the young arms of the NATS way to quickly. Go and look at the career stats of Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson in their early 20s. They both really stunk, and i am sure they are not alone. Both had ERAs and likely FIPS over 5. Guys like Martis (104 innings MLB caree,r 2008 AAA FIP 3.10 2.5 K/BB), Detwiler (73.2 innings MLB career, AAA FIP 3.24), Stammen (105 innings MLB career, AA FIP in 2008 2.78), Martin (77 innings MLB career, AAA Fip 2.77 and a 6/1 K/BB) all have a solid shot at being average to above major league starters for years if quality defenders are put behind them. All their MLB samples are way to small to right them off at all. I would use 2010 to find these guys out!

]]> By: Big Oil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103332 Big Oil Wed, 21 Oct 2009 20:53:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103332 JCA: Agreed on that. I thought the relationship was interesting as well. I suppose Lannan's placement at "#3" (although we'd both probably agree that as far as the designation is concerned, it isn't really significant) was my weighting quantity of innings pitched more heavily over raw quality subconsciously. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them flip-flop at all on the WAR total as Detwiler becomes a regular. JCA: Agreed on that. I thought the relationship was interesting as well. I suppose Lannan’s placement at “#3″ (although we’d both probably agree that as far as the designation is concerned, it isn’t really significant) was my weighting quantity of innings pitched more heavily over raw quality subconsciously. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them flip-flop at all on the WAR total as Detwiler becomes a regular.

]]> By: JCA http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103302 JCA Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:55:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103302 The funny thing is, Big Oil, Detwiler (v. Lannan) is the one with the run better FIP and the positive value fastball. Walks too many, but has a BABIP that looks flukey high. I've been high on him, so it would not surprise me if he ends up your #3 and Lannan #4, eventually. The funny thing is, Big Oil, Detwiler (v. Lannan) is the one with the run better FIP and the positive value fastball. Walks too many, but has a BABIP that looks flukey high. I’ve been high on him, so it would not surprise me if he ends up your #3 and Lannan #4, eventually.

]]> By: Brian Recca http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103295 Brian Recca Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:05:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103295 the nyjer morgan trade was a huge step in the right direction. They could probably get a decent haul for Adam Dunn, especially if he goes to the AL. They have a lot of offensive wild cards like Jesus Flores, Elijah Dukes, Justin Maxwell, and Ian Desmond. Who knows maybe all these guys play to their potential next year and support some of the mainstays in the lineup. The big problem is pitching, there isn't really a solution in sight. Maybe the could try to do something like the Mariners did and field a bunch of gold glove players to help out the pitching staff. the nyjer morgan trade was a huge step in the right direction. They could probably get a decent haul for Adam Dunn, especially if he goes to the AL. They have a lot of offensive wild cards like Jesus Flores, Elijah Dukes, Justin Maxwell, and Ian Desmond. Who knows maybe all these guys play to their potential next year and support some of the mainstays in the lineup.

The big problem is pitching, there isn’t really a solution in sight. Maybe the could try to do something like the Mariners did and field a bunch of gold glove players to help out the pitching staff.

]]> By: Neil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103292 Neil Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:47:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103292 Look, what the dearth of long-term contracts should mean to the Nats is that they can really make an impact through free agency if they decide to act like the top-10 market they are. Their payroll has been in or near the bottom five in baseball for a while, while they turn one of the largest profits in the game. It's always said that you can't just buy your way into contention, but the Nats could sure try if they upped the payroll to the $90 mil range. D.C.'s a frontrunning town, and they'll sell out the stadium for a contender. Look, what the dearth of long-term contracts should mean to the Nats is that they can really make an impact through free agency if they decide to act like the top-10 market they are. Their payroll has been in or near the bottom five in baseball for a while, while they turn one of the largest profits in the game. It’s always said that you can’t just buy your way into contention, but the Nats could sure try if they upped the payroll to the $90 mil range. D.C.’s a frontrunning town, and they’ll sell out the stadium for a contender.

]]> By: Gabriel http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rebuilding-in-the-nations-capital/#comment-103259 Gabriel Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:04:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10541#comment-103259 I'm going to nitpick a little bit with this statement: "One thing is for sure. Come 2011, he will not be able to make the excuse that he was hamstrung by the signings of the previous regime." Being left with virtually no quality players is not being hamstrung? Yes, it is better to have no players than have a roster filled with crappy players, but it would be better yet to have at least a few quality players left behind. Basically, they'll have Zimmerman and a bunch of minor-leaguers. It'll be years before they are a .500 team. That said, the basic point, that they will have a clean slate to start over, is fair enough. I do tend to think though that DC baseball is just cursed... I’m going to nitpick a little bit with this statement:
“One thing is for sure. Come 2011, he will not be able to make the excuse that he was hamstrung by the signings of the previous regime.”

Being left with virtually no quality players is not being hamstrung? Yes, it is better to have no players than have a roster filled with crappy players, but it would be better yet to have at least a few quality players left behind. Basically, they’ll have Zimmerman and a bunch of minor-leaguers. It’ll be years before they are a .500 team.

That said, the basic point, that they will have a clean slate to start over, is fair enough. I do tend to think though that DC baseball is just cursed…

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