Comments on: Reevaluating the Nationals Offense http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:07:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ken http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-81166 Ken Thu, 18 Jun 2009 14:01:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-81166 I'd say Hernandez, whoever they play in CF any given night, any C not named Flores, and Willingham. Not sure how Willingham makes your obvious list. The guy is at best a righty bat off the bench. He was shuffled from one awful team to another, and if it weren't for Milledge totally crapping out he wouldn't even be rostered by a team with 16 wins. I’d say Hernandez, whoever they play in CF any given night, any C not named Flores, and Willingham. Not sure how Willingham makes your obvious list. The guy is at best a righty bat off the bench. He was shuffled from one awful team to another, and if it weren’t for Milledge totally crapping out he wouldn’t even be rostered by a team with 16 wins.

]]> By: pm http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80939 pm Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:18:21 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80939 like who? I agree that Bard would not be another roster, but Wil Nives might be on another roster as a backup. Obviously would be taken on another team: Guzman Johnson Zimm Dunn Dukes Willingham Maybe: Anderson Hernandez Willie Harris Wil Nieves Wouldn't be: Bard Kearns Beliiard Bard,Kearns, and Belliard occasionally spot start and are not really starters. like who? I agree that Bard would not be another roster, but Wil Nives might be on another roster as a backup.

Obviously would be taken on another team:
Guzman
Johnson
Zimm
Dunn
Dukes
Willingham

Maybe:
Anderson Hernandez
Willie Harris
Wil Nieves

Wouldn’t be:
Bard
Kearns
Beliiard

Bard,Kearns, and Belliard occasionally spot start and are not really starters.

]]> By: Ken http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80928 Ken Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:03:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80928 The Nats do seem to have fallen off the last few weeks, and the splits prove it. They are 5th from the bottom in the NL in wOBA for the month of June, but they really started slipping at the end of May. Zimmerman is a solid hitter, but was way above his head during the streak. Note he only has one HR and has seen his OPS drop over 100 points since May 22. Without him on base as much, Dunn isn't seeing as many pitches and has seen a similar dowturn in his numbers. I think they have a decent lineup, but they are starting 3-4 players who might not even be rostered by another team in baseball. The Nats do seem to have fallen off the last few weeks, and the splits prove it. They are 5th from the bottom in the NL in wOBA for the month of June, but they really started slipping at the end of May.

Zimmerman is a solid hitter, but was way above his head during the streak. Note he only has one HR and has seen his OPS drop over 100 points since May 22. Without him on base as much, Dunn isn’t seeing as many pitches and has seen a similar dowturn in his numbers.

I think they have a decent lineup, but they are starting 3-4 players who might not even be rostered by another team in baseball.

]]> By: R M http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80915 R M Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:10:41 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80915 There's always Lastings Milledge...he will be back with plenty of the season left, and he would definitely be a better defensive option than Willingham in Left Field... There’s always Lastings Milledge…he will be back with plenty of the season left, and he would definitely be a better defensive option than Willingham in Left Field…

]]> By: Big Oil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80913 Big Oil Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:53:24 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80913 Interestingly enough, I can buy that too -- although Villone has had a couple ugly outings recently. Interestingly enough, I can buy that too — although Villone has had a couple ugly outings recently.

]]> By: WallyBall http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80911 WallyBall Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:41:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80911 I am surprised that their O is still ranked as high as it is. The last three weeks or so, they have really fallen (or so it seems). It also appears that they are seeing less pitches per at bat too, but I haven't checked any numbers. I agree that Dukes is better in the 5 hole. His power potential is still developing, and his baserunning is immature, at best. Guzman really is the guy to hit there, but they just have no other lead off options. Willingham has also hit well over the last 30 games or so. I'll bet his stats trend into the upper half of #6 hitters in the league. I doubt, however, if he or NJ will bring much in a trade. Believe it or not, I think that they are more likely to trade from their somewhat settled down bullpen, particularly Beimel and Villone. I am surprised that their O is still ranked as high as it is. The last three weeks or so, they have really fallen (or so it seems). It also appears that they are seeing less pitches per at bat too, but I haven’t checked any numbers.

I agree that Dukes is better in the 5 hole. His power potential is still developing, and his baserunning is immature, at best. Guzman really is the guy to hit there, but they just have no other lead off options. Willingham has also hit well over the last 30 games or so. I’ll bet his stats trend into the upper half of #6 hitters in the league. I doubt, however, if he or NJ will bring much in a trade. Believe it or not, I think that they are more likely to trade from their somewhat settled down bullpen, particularly Beimel and Villone.

]]> By: Big Oil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80904 Big Oil Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:02:37 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80904 Well, thinking about it, no real qualms. I saw it like this: 1. Guze 2. Willie 3. Zim 4. Dunn 5. Dukes 6. Willingham 7. Hernandez/Belliard (platoon? would need to look at #s more) 8. Nieves/Bard So you figure maybe Harris plays average offensively and is able to correct the CF defense back to his old form (-42 this year? as discussed in an earlier post, I don't think that will hold). Dukes, batting behind Dunn, gives the team a chance to produce when Dunn registers one of his three true outcomes (the walk). Look, Willingham isn't unbelievable protection, but it is the best they have. My person feeling was that Dukes' value was maximized in the 5 slot vis a vis producing runs. Well, thinking about it, no real qualms. I saw it like this:

1. Guze
2. Willie
3. Zim
4. Dunn
5. Dukes
6. Willingham
7. Hernandez/Belliard (platoon? would need to look at #s more)
8. Nieves/Bard

So you figure maybe Harris plays average offensively and is able to correct the CF defense back to his old form (-42 this year? as discussed in an earlier post, I don’t think that will hold). Dukes, batting behind Dunn, gives the team a chance to produce when Dunn registers one of his three true outcomes (the walk). Look, Willingham isn’t unbelievable protection, but it is the best they have. My person feeling was that Dukes’ value was maximized in the 5 slot vis a vis producing runs.

]]> By: kris http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80892 kris Tue, 16 Jun 2009 15:48:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80892 You don't think Dukes can step in? I see no reason why he doesn't get his OBP back to around his projected mark, if not last year's mark. 350 OBP? 360? It's not Johnson's 400, but it's not awful.. You don’t think Dukes can step in? I see no reason why he doesn’t get his OBP back to around his projected mark, if not last year’s mark.

350 OBP? 360? It’s not Johnson’s 400, but it’s not awful..

]]> By: Big Oil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reevaluating-the-nationals-offense/#comment-80884 Big Oil Tue, 16 Jun 2009 15:02:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5541#comment-80884 Scuttlebutt (and some degree of conventional wisdom) has the Natinals moving Nick the Stick and transitioning Dunn to 1B. I'm not sure this will really help the team any in the short run, as Willingham seems the most likely candidate to assume the LF position. Defensively, this posture is still pretty bad and leaves the team without a high OBP second place hitter for Zim/Dunn to drive in (unless Willie Harris suddenly finds the ability to reach around/over 40% of the time, something I'm not counting on). However, the season is practically done anyway, and depending on the return on Johnson (what would Boston pay even if they were seriously interested?), Rizzo may just say F it. In that way, even moving tradeable pieces around doesn't appear to cure one of the two major Nationals ills (the other being forming a reliable bullpen). Scuttlebutt (and some degree of conventional wisdom) has the Natinals moving Nick the Stick and transitioning Dunn to 1B. I’m not sure this will really help the team any in the short run, as Willingham seems the most likely candidate to assume the LF position. Defensively, this posture is still pretty bad and leaves the team without a high OBP second place hitter for Zim/Dunn to drive in (unless Willie Harris suddenly finds the ability to reach around/over 40% of the time, something I’m not counting on). However, the season is practically done anyway, and depending on the return on Johnson (what would Boston pay even if they were seriously interested?), Rizzo may just say F it. In that way, even moving tradeable pieces around doesn’t appear to cure one of the two major Nationals ills (the other being forming a reliable bullpen).

]]>