Comments on: Reflecting on Raul

By: Howie

Howie — Thu, 07 May 2009 07:56:18 +0000

We miss you in Seattle Raul!!!! We are watching you kick ass in the National League. keep it up. You are awesome!!!!!!!

By: F.uckTheS.PicMets

F.uckTheS.PicMets — Wed, 06 May 2009 22:37:41 +0000

You guys are all f.aggots. World F.u.cking Champions mother f.uckers. You s.pic loving Met fans.

F.,uck off bi.tches

Accept Satan as your Lord.

By: Brian

Brian — Tue, 05 May 2009 14:19:55 +0000

Just looked at the numbers and Ibanez is coming back to reality with BABIP (0.338 vs. career 0.311) and his LD%/FB%/GB% is inline with history. His IFFB% is WAY down and his HR/FB% is way up.

I was thinking of selling this guy high in a fantasy league but I’m starting to wonder if the increase in HR/FB% might be due to the band box he plays in vs. some statistical anomily…any thoughts/thorough analysis?

By: James K.

James K. — Mon, 04 May 2009 23:08:48 +0000

They must have meant nonconsecutive games. Raul for example did about eighty percent of his damage last year in his top forty games but only about forty percent in his best forty game stretch, so yes, I can see this holding relatively true across most of baseball.

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:21:06 +0000

Interesting point…I’ve heard a fantasy columnist on an unnamed site say “sluggers do 75% of their damage in 25% of their games”. Would be interesting to see if this was statistically accurate…do sluggers produce 75% of their output in 25% of their games (IE the first month for Raul) or is this simply a “stat” thrown out there based on conjection vs. reality.

By: Kevin Herman

Kevin Herman — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:13:08 +0000

Come on now Bob the signing was not “awful”. The Phillies are one of the elite clubs in baseball now and don’t need to make decisions based on 2-3 million here or there or an extra year hear or there. Burrell would have accepted arbitration and got more then Ibanez got for one year. They would have never seen those draft picks. The other so called bargains on the market were not players the Phillies wanted. Bobby Abreu they got rid of once and Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard would have been a whiff factory. The Phillies decided on a number they could live with and signed the guy they wanted.

By: Bob

Bob — Mon, 04 May 2009 15:51:15 +0000

Regarding his defense…I read something in the offseason about how Ibanez played effective defense on shallow balls, and inadequate defense on deep balls, with a positive out differential on shallow balls and a negative one on deep balls. Burrell was the opposite. It’s possible that CBP negates much of the poor defense stat effect of Raul due to it’s short left field porch.

Similarly, while CBP is not as much of a hitter’s park as some make it out to be, it could be that it is a great hitter’s park for certain types of hitters. Raul could be that type. He doesn’t hit monster bombs, but he does hit a lot of deep fly balls. Point is, Ryan Howard will get his dingers anywhere. Raul may pick up 5 to 10 homers in CBP that would have been deep outs at Safeco.

It could also be that the Phillies are using more sophisticated metrics than your typical Park effect analysis, instead looking at where outs are made and how different parks impact that. The best analysis today is undoubtedly being performed behind closed doors with different ballclubs. Perhaps not.

I was opposed to the Ibanez signing then and still am now, though I love what I’ve seen as a phan. I mostly opposed it because the play with Burrell was to offer him arbitration. He accepts, you get him for one motivated year. He declines, you get 2 first rounders to fill a depleted farm system and can still sign Raul or any of the others. That was before the depressed market. After…well, the signing was awful. But maybe not as awful as it first appeared.

By: Joe Trinsey

Joe Trinsey — Sun, 03 May 2009 14:29:18 +0000

Another home run and some more solid defense against the Mets last night. Whether it’s a fluke or not… I’ll take it as long as it keeps up!

By: Top2124

Top2124 — Sun, 03 May 2009 07:17:19 +0000

Safeco plays very neutral to left hand hitters. It was built for Griffey, after all. Right handed hitters are where you see the park effects come in to play.

By: Top2124

Top2124 — Sun, 03 May 2009 02:22:58 +0000

CaR,
Do you read any posts on this site, or do you just post to disagree with Dave Cameron. If you’ve looked at anything on here in the last 1-2 years, you’ll know what most believe is the best way to value defense. Yes, even the creators of these statistics know they’re flawed, and can be affected by noise, but it’s undoubtedly probably the best we have. Seeing you don’t have a link tied to your name where you’ve done something better, I’m going to have to side more with the Fangraphs guys and Litchman here. Until you can show why the difference between Ichiro and Ibanez’s defense isn’t worth that much with analysis rather than just saying “I see” and “I think”, you’re not going to get many thumbs up on your posts from around here.

You can walk into a college professor’s room and dispute his teachings if you use sound logic and real proof of your ideas, but you can’t just walk in and say this is right because I say so and not look a little silly. Put together something a little tangible, read up on some of the defensive metrics, even make up your own and you can construct a better argument. Until then I’ll blindly follow the guys who’ve put years of knowledge into these numbers, graphs, and this great website.