And, to take things a bit further, he is basically a 2 pitch pitcher, FB/CB, and since his FB is fringy and VERY hittable, he relies heavily on this CB which I mentioned was a true “plus-plus” pitch. But, he will fall in love with his CB and I have seen him throw the pitch as many as 5 times in a row to the same hitter. Eventually, the hitters in the AL figured this out and would take his curveball and sit on the FB and knock him around. Even if he would be successful the first time through the lineup, by the 2nd time through the lineup, the hitters have seen everything he has and he has a very hard time making it through the lineup again.

I know that it is always fun to dream about his true potential and it is understandable, he K’s a good amount of hitters even though he has terrible command and a mediocre FB which really shows how strong his CB truly is, but unless he comes up with a QUALITY 3rd pitch, he is nothing more than a situational lefty which I believe he could be.

Note- He apparently used to have a pretty decent slider back when he was successful with the Cubs, which he benefited from tremendously, but in 09 with the O’s the pitch was never seen. He may have been scared to throw it because when he did pitch in 09, he already had a torn labrum(it was witheld from the public until the end of the year) and sliders put a ton of stress on the arm. But, you would assume that he would have atleast tried to throw the pitch after getting hammered time after time and continued to start….

My points were …

[1] Even then it’s pretty close.
[2] It’s doesn’t matter, b/c you don’t take the 2 best hitters out of a lineup, and then make a comparison.

As far as I know, no one has ever said (with a straight face) “You know if you take Jordan and Pippen out of the lineup, the Knicks have the better offense.”

IMO, the rror the poster is making is likely thinking of each player’s best year as a marker for what type of hitter they are. If you take each player’s best year, then the Cubs probably are the better offensive team … but that’s not realizing that Soto, Fuku, Fontenot, Riot, etc have ALL likely had their career years already (and have had just a few years into their careers), and are now just a % of their former selves.

The explanation for this is that he gets RHPs to pound the zone with movement that breaks lat and down or late and in (either Stew’s forkball or Supp’s and Pineiro’s 2-seamer or sinker.

The only pitch that a lefty can throw that moves late and in (away from the barrel of the bat) to a RHB is a cutter. I don’t know that Hill is able to produce the velocity and consistency with a pitch like that to ne as effective as the other pitchers mentioned . My guess would be ‘No’ and StL is likely to use a revolving 5th starter to survive by changing the looks other teams get. By playoff time, the 5th starter won’t matter.

Erm, what about Brad Penny? To be perfectly honest, I’m not sure there’ll be much separating Penny (coming off an ugly post-injury season when he put up 2.5 WAR) and Pineiro (coming off an unsustainable career year when he put up 4.5 WAR) by the end of next year, and Todd Wellemeyer is definitely addition by subtraction.

You’re right, however, that Carpenter and Wainwright are unlikely to be as good.

1) Pujols and Holliday are awesome, but Ludwick is nothing of his 2008 mold (nor perhaps his 2009 showing). Outside of these 3, however, the rest of the team’s offense is terrible.

This comment kinda strikes me as funny. It basically says “Outisde of the projected 14.1 WAR of StL’s Big 3, their offense is horrible.”

Okay, never mind that 2 of the 3 are putting up ~5 and ~7 WAR seasons, which takes the Cubs best 4 players to equal (CHONE projections).

Here are the 8 starters and their ’10 projected WARs (I don;t like looking at ONLY offense, because that’s a dumb thing to do … especially when much of the Cards success is pitching and defense).

C — Molina (3.6); Soto (3.2)
1B — Pujols (7.2); DLee (3.0)
2B — Schu (1.6); F’NOT (1.4)
3B — Freese (1.8); ARam (3.3)
SS — Ryan (2.8); Riot (2.2)
LF — Holliday (4.8); Soriano (1.8)
CF — Rasmus (3.0); Byrd (2.4)
RF — Ludwick (2.1); Fukudome (2.2)

Total — StL 26.9; CHC 19.5

Would you like to look at Pitching staffs? (Fans Proj, no CHONE listed)

SP1 — Wain (5.4); Big Z (3.4)
SP2 — Carp (4.7); Lilly (3.0)
SP3 — Lohse (2.3); Dempster (3.5)
SP4 — Penny (2.1); Wells (2.6)
SP5 — Wellemeyer (-0.3); Gorz (0.7)

Total — StL 14.2; CHC 13.2

Batting (Starting 8) + Pitching (Starting 5)
—————–

StL 41.1 v. CHC 32.7

So, unless you’re using a better or more accurate metric, I would say YES, StL is the favorite above CHC. I would also say that MIL is likely #2 ahead of CHC, and CIN may be also ahead of CHC.

I don’t know if Wellemeyer will be the #5 or not, but even with him, it’s an overall better rotation than CHC.

The point could be made that Carp and Wain may not repeat their performances from 09, but I’d make the same point about Wells and Lilly.

Injuries, like always, will probably be a major determining factor. But as far as projections go, your question got answered.

Let’ break this down.
1) Pujols and Holliday are awesome, but Ludwick is nothing of his 2008 mold (nor perhaps his 2009 showing). Outside of these 3, however, the rest of the team’s offense is terrible.
2) The pitching>> out goes a great season by pinero, in comes….nothing. Wainwright is awesome, but will he be that good this year? FIP says not. Carpenter also going to pitch that well? Will he be healthy?

on the other hand, the cubs were a +500 team, only 7.5 Wins out of it last year
1) That includes being only second to the Mets in DL stints (4/5 SP’s went on the DL last year, Aramis missed 1/2 the season, Soriano was injured and playing then just missed time, soto had an arm injury that never healed, etc)
2) Of the players that remained, only DLee performed up to standards. The BABIPs on the rest of the crew were incredibly low

I say it’s a very close call b/w the cubs and cards with the cubs getting the edge here b/c the team has more balance through the lineup and field