Roberts Remains An Oriole
Well, after countless rumors over the last few offseasons involving a potential Brian Roberts trade, the second baseman has agreed to a 4-yr extension with the Baltimore Orioles. He stated that his decision centered around a desire to remain with the same team for his entire career as well as how the Orioles are going to shape up as players in the AL East sweepstakes throughout the duration of this extension.
Well… there’s that, or the fact that, if this offseason is any indication, a 31-yr old second baseman who would likely garner the Type A status is simply not going to get anything near this deal from anyone other than the Yankees.
The extension runs from 2010-2013 and will pay Roberts $10 mil/season for a grand total of $40 mil. Since 2003, Roberts has been a very productive second baseman. Dave wrote this afternoon about Orlando Hudson‘s productivity, averaging +2.5 wins over the last four seasons. From 2003-08, the lowest win value posted by Roberts was +2.3, in 2004. All told, he has averaged +3.9 wins/season over the last six seasons.
Most people know of Roberts thanks to his gaudy 2005 campaign, in which he produced +6.3 wins on the heels of a .314/.387/.515 line, a .389 wOBA, and +5 run defense at the keystone. Following that career year, Roberts halved his productivity to +3.1 wins. +3.1 wins from a second baseman is very impressive but the mark paled in comparison to the previous season and many considered Roberts a bust. His critics were largely silenced over the last two seasons when he posted win values of +4.4 and +4.5.
Roberts’ fielding has declined since 2006, and does not shape up to get any better. CHONE sees Roberts at around a .360 wOBA worth +17 runs. Roberts is also a good bet to play over 150 games and amass 650+ PA. With that in mind, his 2009 win value components break down like this: +17 batting, -2 fielding, +23 replacement, +2.4 positional. Put together, Roberts looks like a +3.6 win player. In a normal market, that production commands $16.2 mil. If he declines by a half-win each season, and the average annual dollars/win stayed $4.5 mil, with a 10% discount for the contractual guarantee, the four-year deal would be valued at $46 mil.
Initially the deal looks better for Roberts, as he simply was not going to get this much elsewhere. Normally, it might favor the Orioles as they would have a hard time bringing in as productive of a player for $10 mil or below. If Roberts had been a free agent this season we would have a better idea of what he could have commanded but, as of now, I’m comfortable saying that the deal favors Roberts over the Orioles but that the Orioles are still getting a very productive player at a seemingly below market price.
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Dont we need to add hte minumum salary to the dollars under the value section?
I think Roberts will be as productive at 36 years old as Melvin Mora was in 2008 at 36 years old, if not more so. If that’s what we can expect from a guy who plays second base, I can be okay with that. He’s a fan favorite and no health issues. While some people question his future production and contract amount, most people in Baltimore love this extension.
Seems like a good deal to me, too. It’s just interesting given that he would have gotten nowhere near this money/yrs elsewhere.
I’m not sure about that. He would have been a free agent after next year and if he had put up another line similar to this years, than he would be highly sought after. Especially when you consider the FA class of second basemen next year:
Ronnie Belliard (35)
Jamey Carroll (36)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Mark DeRosa (35)
David Eckstein (35)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Orlando Hudson (32)
Akinori Iwamura (31) – $4.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Adam Kennedy (34)
Felipe Lopez (30)
Mark Loretta (38)
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Placido Polanco (34)
Freddy Sanchez (32) – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout
Juan Uribe (31)
Per MLBtraderumors.com. Roberts would clearly be the class of the FA market. Teams like the Cubs or the Mets would jump all over him. He might not get the years but I would venture to say that the AAV would be around 15 million, especially if the economy gets better (please?).
There is ABSOLUTELY, and I mean ABSOLUTELY no way that Roberts would receive $15 mil/yr as a 32 yr old second baseman with Type A when Orlando Hudson struggled to make $5 mil…unless the economy makes a VAST turnaround. End of story.
Roberts is a far better player than Hudson. He has been heavily pursued by the Cubs, who if given a shot to sign him would definitely pay that amount to get him. Anyways, I AM assuming that the economy would turn around by next year. If it didn’t we wouldn’t be talking so much about baseball.
Nobody is debating he is a better player, but he is not 5 times better in terms of salary. If Roberts were a free agent next year, in a slightly improved economy, I could potentially see 4/42 as the max he would get, but something more along the lines of 3/30. It isn’t necessarily the AAV I think is out of reach as much as the years combined with the AAV.
If he signed a 1-yr deal I could see a team giving him $14 mil if he puts up a +4.5 win season this year. But to go to four years just isn’t going to happen, at that fee, unless the economy makes a sharp turnaround.