Rowand Loses Contact, Increases Production?
Aaron Rowand, by all accounts, had a career year last season with the Phillies. In 161 games he boasted a slash line of .309/.374/.515, complete with 27 HR, 89 RBI, and 45 doubles. Playing in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park caused many, myself included, to speculate his performance would drop off the radar when he signed a 5-yr/60 mil deal with the Giants. Going from a career year in a notorious hitter’s park to an equally notorious pitcher’s park would make intuitive bells ring with regards to a regression of sorts.
His numbers at home have not been anywhere near those on the road this year—.777 OPS vs. 1.084 OPS—but those road numbers have been stellar enough to result in an overall slash line of .328/.396/.527.
Rowand has seen his BB%, BABIP, and HR/FB increase each year from 2006 until now, but one number is going in the opposite direction, which is quite puzzling: His percentage of contact has steadily decreased. Not necessarily surprising, this has caused an increase in K%.
His overall statistics have improved from 2006 to today but he is putting his bat on the ball less often; 73.46% of the time as compared to 80.78% in 2006.
2006: 80.78% Contact, .297 BABIP
2007: 78.29% Contact, .348 BABIP
2008: 73.46% Contact, .389 BABIP
This could point towards Rowand fouling the ball off less often; perhaps instead of making noticeably less contact he is either swinging and missing or putting it into play much more often than the past. He might not sustain this level of performance all year long but it is definitely counterintuitive to say that a guy making less contact will increase his production… but I guess that’s why they* call him Aaron “Counterintuitive” Rowand.
*-nobody calls him that.
MrLomez said,
June 6, 2008 @ 5:01 pm
My totally unsupportable theory:
I think Rowand’s approach has changed in 2-strike counts. In Philly and in Chicago, but primarily last year in Philly, Rowand was hitting in a far more productive offense and his role in the 5th or 6th spot, with big bats behind him, often called for him to move runners around, particularly once he got into 2-strike counts. Right or wrong, baseball players are taught this approach at a young age - when there’s 2 strikes, choke up, hit the ball to the right side, and make a “productive out”. Perhaps with the Giants Rowand is hitting in more 2 out situations and with fewer baserunners.
On a related note, Rowand’s overall hitting approach may have changed as well. On the Giants he is one of, if not the primary run producers on the team and is expected to be a slugger. If he doesn’t drive in runs there is no Pat Burrell behind him to clean up. I certainly would not say that the higher k% is a result of Rowand overswinging, but again, perhaps he’s less inclined in this new role to merely swing for contact.
And I’ll add that if it is the case that Rowand is taking bigger two strike hacks and missing, rather than putting the ball on the ground just for the sake of making “productive outs”, his overall production, statistically, would show an improvement.
Eric Seidman said,
June 7, 2008 @ 12:32 am
I think it’s definitely, and likely plausible, that he thinks he needs to be doing more now than before. On the Phillies, he was behind Utley, Howard, Burrell, and Rollins, which means anything he did was more of a bonus than required production for success. Now he seems to be a very key ingredient. As for the last point, what I think you mean is that if he’s swinging hard he’ll either miss it or he’ll crush it for something productive; by not swinging hard he’ll more likely foul it off or put it on the ground, meaning that the statistics may not improve as a direct result of the harder swing but that type of swing gives him a better probability of production.