Sabathia Does Not Throw No Hitter; Yankees Season Over
The worst part about the opening day is the overreactions. Eric covered this in more depth last night, but Derek Lowe is probably not going to maintain a FIP sub-1 for the entire season, Brandon Webb and Aaron Cook are actually good pitchers, and CC Sabathia will not be a puddle of suck for the longevity of his contract.
Despite what Joe Morgan stated, Sabathia’s velocity was fine. Sabathia’s average fastball touched just over 93 miles per hour, and topped out at 95. Over the last three seasons, Sabathia’s average fastball velocities are 93.7, 92.9, and 93.7. Either Morgan was unaware and fabricating excuses for the Yankees’ new ace, or he simply has no idea how hard Sabathia normally throws.
In fact, the only slight difference between Sabathia yesterday and Sabathia of yesteryear was pitch usage; ~59% fastballs (right around average), 28% sliders (a tick above normal), 12% change-ups (a tick below) and one curveball. Oh, and yes, those velocities were all in check as well. Everything moved as it should, and if you don’t want to take my word for it, look below and guess which pitches are from yesterday and which are from Sabathia’s best start last season – as determined by WPA.
Yesterday’s pitches are those in pink. Yes, there are a few straighter than usual fastballs, but otherwise the clusters seem to have a lot of overlap. So, Sabathia’s velocity and pitch movement were nearly identical to last year, but he had some issues with command during his debut in pinstripes and in a sub-60 degree temperature.
Sabathia will be fine, the same cannot be said for those flocking to the nearest bridge.
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Well said, R.J.
I love everything leading up to Opening Day. I love the Opening Day games.
I can’t stand the Monday morning quarterbacking done by analysts and fans alike where they prey on the small sample and extrapolate it over the remaining 161 games. Eric’s article, which you mentioned, hit the nail on the head.
Awesome graph, by the way. Did you make it in Excel? I can’t for the life of me figure out how to get the Y-axis into the center.
Yessir on the graph. What you have to do is right click on the x-axis and hit “format axis”. Next simply put “Value Y-axis crosses at” as 0, and that should do the trick.
A graph is worth a thousand words. Love it.
After watching the Braves-Phillies game and most other Sunday Night Games on ESPN, I’m convinced Morgan doesn’t realize what he’s saying.
Bill, to get the Y-axis in the center, click on the X-axis, go to Format>Selected Axis and make the scale from -[10] to [10] and the Value (Y) axis Crosses at = 0. Then repeat for the Y-axis.
What why would I believe you, a blogger who lives in his mother’s basement, over Joe Morgan, a hall of famer? You can use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true. Seriously though, great post.. The Orioles radio guys were saying the same thing about CC’s fastball, so I was going to look it up. I’m glad I checked here first.
So question then: were the Orioles just that much better at handling The Big Shot, or was there something off with his pitch location (or pitch choice?) during the game?
I can buy that his stuff didn’t fall of a cliff or anything, but while i didn’t watch the Yanks game yesterday at all, i can’t imagine that he pitched to the same caliber of his incredible run last year.
His command looked a bit off. Given the circumstances I’m not surprised.
I was at the game. How about instead of saying that the Yankees were not quite on their full game, why is it so hard for the United States to admit that the Orioles are basically the 2009 version of the 2008 Rangers? They are a dangerous hitting team.
The Orioles offense surely had something to do with this performance, but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. An elite pitcher shouldn’t have 5 walks and no stikeouts against an all-star team.
My guess is it was just cold. And if you watched the game the umpire was calling a pretty tight zone. CC just couldn’t find it yesterday- he’ll be fine, and so will the O’s offense.
man leave Joe Morgan alone. If you nitpick what every announcer/analyst says he will of course say a few dumb things a game. During the Mets game Gary Cohen said that Felipe Lopez began his career in Cincinnati, when he really started it in Toronto. I would hardly consider him a horrible announcer just because of that. Harold Reynolds and Al Leiter both agreed during MLB Tonight that CC Sabathia’s velocity was down a bit. Clearly they were wrong too. Someone else mentioned that the Orioles announcers said the same thing. I’m not saying that they are right, but singling out Joe Morgan doesn’t make sense.
Joe Morgan was calling the feed I watched, hence the reference.
Singling out Joe Morgan makes a ton of sense. He is absolutely terrible at his job.
Actually, Jim Palmer on the O’s broadcast was right on (perhaps the O’s radio callers were off and that was what the earlier commenter was refering to?). Palmer kept stating that Sabathia’s velocity was just fine, exactly what it always is. Palmer pointed out that CC’s location was his problem.
Good one!
I just can’t understand this line of rationale. Opening day is when absolutely everyone is focused on what players do. To not pull through with a great performance is a lack clutch ability on their part. To sit here and say that it doesn’t mean anything is just asinine.
Totally right, I’m going to email the Yankees right now and tell them to trade CC.
yeah players always play their best baseball in 50 degree rainy weather
It wasn’t raining in Baltimore at any point during the game.
“I just can’t understand this line of rationale. Opening day is when absolutely everyone is focused on what players do.”
But it’s not indicative of where a team will end up 161 games later, or how a particular player will perform in the future, which I think is part of the point he’s making when he mentions “overreactions” in the first section.
“To not pull through with a great performance is a lack clutch ability on their part. To sit here and say that it doesn’t mean anything is just asinine.”
See, right there? That’s an overreaction. Read the first paragraph again. Better yet, just read the whole article again until you understand it, get the point, the gist, the context, etc.
Pretty sure this was sarcasm
ON THE INTERNET?!?!?!
If it was, it was pitch-perfect. If it wasn’t….
Aaron Cook: So good, he doesn’t need to be linked.
According to my homebrewed formulas, Teixeira will not get a single hit this season. Worst 180 mill EVER
He is already choking in big situations like a veteran Yankee!
Your American League MVP, ADAM JONES!!!
Could actually happen one day (Probably not)
Crap! You mean I should of held onto CC instead of dumping him for Kevin Millwood?
Excellent work R.J. This shows (to all of the Cardinals fans that booed Motte yesterday) that anyone can struggle at the start of a season.
Nice post, RJ. Much better than the NY tabloids declaring doom for Yankees everywhere. People seem to forget that Sabathia got off to just as bad a start last season, only to rebound and be the most dominant starter in the Majors.
I hate to be the one defending Joe Morgan, but the ESPN radar gun actually had Sabathia at 89-90 for much of the game . . .
I would trust gameday more
CC Sabathia is a major fatass. I mean his gut alone probably weighs as much as Ichiro Suzuki. People who get paid that much to play a sport shouldn’t be allowed to be that fat.
I couldn’t disagree more – and I imagine you are probably being a bit tounge-in-cheek to begin with. I love seeing players of all shapes and sizes playing baseball. Just yet another aspect of the game that makes it so superior to other sports.
Can you belive he once dated Serena Williams?
Seriously. This was Sabathia in 2000
http://www.checkoutmycards.com/CardImages/Cards/062/301/02F.jpg
This is Sabathia now
http://blog.nj.com/yankees_main/2009/03/large_cc327.jpg
Seriously, how many deep fried twinkies can you eat? If I were the Yankee’s I’d be getting on him about that. I’m worried he’s going to take up 2 SP slots on my fantasy baseball team pretty soon.
Seriously, there’s a tidal wave of arm fat on his elbow in that second pic.
A cool day in April against a team with Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Brian Roberts, and Melvin Mora, and CC struggles?
ZOMG SEASON OVA, CC IS A BUST, SMALL SAMPLE SIZE INDUCED PANIC AHOY.
Not sure… but of course they wont win with or without a no-hitter….. yankees might go playoffs only because of there high powered offense no defence requried? of couse its required…. not sure about there bullpin.. rivera cant pitch for more than 4 innings…. but out of marky im feeling over 30 bombs…
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