Samardzija: Not In Command
It seems like every year, a young flamethrowing rookie comes up from the minors and makes a big impact on a playoff team’s bullpen. Joba Chamberlain, Pat Neshek, Francisco Rodriguez… it’s becoming an annual tradition. This year, Jeff Samardzija is being anointed as that guy after coming up and blowing hitters away with his 95 MPH fastball.
There’s one huge difference between Samardzija and the guys who were fall sensations in years past – the ability to throw strikes. His walk rate is okay (3.09 BB/9) for a power reliever, but it’s masking the fact that he’s only thrown 58% of his pitches for strikes. That matches Daniel Cabrera’s career total, for comparison’s sake. After a sparkling debut in his first two appearances, he’s consistently been unable to put the ball over the plate since, putting up a 53% strike percentage in his last six appearances.
That’s just not going to work. You can’t miss the plate half the time and be successful in the major leagues. Hitters will just lay off the pitches that aren’t over the plate until you come over with something they can crush, or wait for you to give them first base. The old cliche about the best pitch in baseball being strike one is true – stuff is important, but command is vital. Right now, Samardzija’s command is walking the line of not being good enough for the major leagues. His stuff gives him a margin of error, but he’s pretty close to the end of that margin.
His big leap forward has been a great story for the Cubs organization, but as they head towards October, they have to be realistic about what he’s going to give them down the stretch. The power arm is always enticing, but radar velocities don’t matter when the ump yells “ball four”. The Cubs need to be helping him get the ball over the plate more often, and until he does, he shouldn’t be counted on as the savior of that bullpen.
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A lot of his breaking balls are out of the zone. But if you watch, a lot of them start in the zone.
As long as he can locate his fastball (which he does, not great, but, certainly pretty well). And 1/2 of the time he’ll get a swinging strike on pitches that would be balls. He may not yet be Joba quality, but, he’ll still provide the K’s to unsuspecting teams in smaller quantities.
Could this perhaps have to do with instructions from Lou Piniella to pitch around some of the better Cardinals hitters? It seems like the Shark has faced very good hitters lately. I think the sample size you’re talking about is pretty small, and may be affected by pitch-around instructions.
Ha, this blog article is a piece of junk. Way to throw the “Samardzija” out there to get some hits on your site. Look at his K/BB ratio and we’ll start to talk. The kid throws 98mph with movement, along with a nasty splitter that drops out of the zone for his strikeout pitch.
Go write about the Olympics.
Evan, did you not read the post?
And Dave–
Tom Glavine’s strike % since 2002 is ~59%. Just sayin’
While I don’t necessarily disagree with the conclusion of this article, I think there’s a lot more useful information in this analysis of the Shark’s performance to date:
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/08/jeff-samardzija-updates-on-pitch-types.html
Unfortunately, it was published before his work versus St. Louis.
Evan HAS to be a total Notre Dame & Cubs homer. Obviously didn’t read the article or only looks at things through his irish/cubbie glasses. Let me guess Evan, Wins are the most important stat for a pitcher and batting average the only thing that matters offensively?
Evan, it’s pretty clear that you have missed the point of this blog. The author is fully aware that Samardzija has a strong k/bb ratio. What he is saying is that unless he improves his control/ strikes thrown percentage, that ratio will inevitably plummet and/or he will get hit much harder. He is just saying that his surface stats are misleading and that his peripheral stats point to a regression unless he changes his approach. Obviously, most frequenters of this website understood what Dave was getting at, but as you seem to have not, hope this clears it up.
Oh, and not understanding an article or point doesn’t make it junk or useless.
The author is fully aware that Samardzija has a strong k/bb ratio. What he is saying is that unless he improves his control/ strikes thrown percentage, that ratio will inevitably plummet and/or he will get hit much harder.
I was just about to come say this, but Isaac said it perfectly. Samardzija’s K/BB is unsustainable unless he starts throwing more strikes.