Scenery Changes
Matt Holliday and Nick Swisher had very different 2008 campaigns, with the former producing his third consecutive season with a wOBA north of .400 and the latter suffering from the BABIP flu, hitting just .219/.332/.410. With only a year remaining on his contract and slim chances that he would resign, the Rockies sent Holliday to the Athletics. Swisher joined the Yankees roster in exchange for Wilson Betemit and two prospects following several verbal bouts with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Entering this season, both players had something to prove: that Swisher’s .251 BABIP leading to a .325 wOBA was a fluke and that Holliday could post solid offensive numbers without the assistance of Coors Field.
Through their first ten games, Swisher became a Yankees legend and confirmation biases reigned supreme with regards to Holliday’s “inability” to hit on the road:
Games 1-10
Swisher: .406/.486/1.000
Holliday: .278/.333/ .444
Then Swisher cooled substantially, bringing his numbers a bit closer to Earth. Meanwhile, Holliday got on base less often and exhibited diminished power:
Games 11-20
Swisher: .211/.362/.368
Holliday: .262/.311/.405
Over their next ten games, Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage resembled Swisher’s in the above span, but he did not get on base nearly as often. Swisher took some walks and, despite not recording an abundance of hits, those that did add to his seasonal total were generally of the extra base variety:
Games 21-30
Swisher: .200/.359/.533
Holliday: .211/.318/.368
As you can imagine, after thirty games, many were convinced that Swisher had found his stroke and that Holliday would prove to be a bust as an Athletic.
Game 31-Present
Swisher: .119/.269/.190
Holliday: .342/.468/.526
In their most recent stretches, Holliday has closely resembled the MVP candidate witnessed in Colorado while Swisher put up Nick Punto-esque numbers (.181/.290/198 in 2009). When all of these stretches are combined, Swisher is hitting .225/.360/.493 while Holliday sits at .264/.350/.421. Ignoring batting average, Swisher is still in the midst of a bounce back season with a .369 wOBA matching his output from 2006, when he launched 35 home runs. Unfortunately, Swisher’s BABIP has not regressed, resting at .256. It will be incredibly difficult to sustain this type of performance with a BABIP so low, but his BA does not paint an accurate performance portrait at all.
Holliday has improved over his last ten or so games, but that seasonal line is still lacking. To date, his closest slash line comp is Skip Schumaker of the Cardinals, certainly not company Holliday is accustomed to keeping. The season still has legs, but even with ZiPS projecting better performance out of the former Rockies star, his poor performance so far has definitely affected his true talent level. Should the ZiPS projections come to fruition, Holliday would finish the season hitting .279/.359/.458, numbers that have consistently garnered employment for Raul Ibanez but not what we have come to expect from Holliday. Then again, Matt could pick up steam, continue this torrid stretch, and make people forget he ever struggled. The change of scenery may have helped Swisher enjoy himself more and potentially start anew, but it has worked in the opposite way for Holliday.
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Weren’t you the guys suggesting that Swisher start over Xavier Nady?
I realize he’s hurt, but his career suggests he could hit at least as good as Swisher is.
Not really. Nady mashes lefties, but aside from last season, he’s been abysmal against righties. I’m not sure if it coincides exactly with the breakdown listed above, but Swisher’s current slide coincides completely with getting hit on the elbow.
Swisher has a .369 wOBA this year. Nady has a career .342 wOBA and only one season over .346. His career year was at .374. Swisher’s the better hitter and better defender.
I enjoy the subtle dig at Ibanez towards the end of the article. I sometimes wonder what is more biased here; the hate for Ibanez or the love for Elijah Dukes.
Hate to break it to you but that isn’t a dig at Ibanez in any way. All that means is that the slash line mentioned is good but not great, and especially not what we expect from Matt Holliday. No Ibanez bias here. I didn’t like the PROCESS of the signing. If the PRODUCT continues to hit at his current pace I would rescind most of my sentiments, but evaluating signings based solely on the product is, for lack of a better word, stupid.
LOL on Ibanez. Eric and others cant let it go because they can not understand the new data. There are some great posts on why Burrell was superior to Ibanez and I was killed defending the move on this website. Maybe it will turn out I was wrong….but not 1/4 of the way into season 1 of 3 of the Ibanez deal.
Eric, you could have picked 100 players with that slash line but chose Ibanez because you cant let it go. Let it go. You’re a Phillies fan and am sure you love and chant Raul all the time.
Some people here argued that things like “character” didn’t matter and thought Milton Bradley was superior to Ibanez. Again, only 1/4 of the season in but Milton Bradley is a cancer and is his production is terrible.
There is room for character and IMO should not be forgotten….
Nah, I was actually looking him up in another Internet window and noticed the odd similarities. Let what go? Of course I root for him. But don’t be blinded by 2 months of an 18 month marriage. I wholeheartedly hope he keeps this up, but the process of the signing bugged me and that is what I wrote about. If he keeps this up, then I’ll of course rescind my stance.
Bradley’s been a cancer this year? Eh, not really. And signing him was dumb because expecting him to hold up playing in the field regularly was dumb. Milton the DH would have been a preferable signing to Raul the DH (although that is obviously not the choice Philly was facing).
If there are 100 players with a similar slash line, then you just made a compelling case as to why the signing of Ibanez was stupid.
I have a question Eric: You state that if the ZiPS projection comes to fruition that Holliday would end the season hitting .279/.359/.458. Which is disappointment for sure, but means that his true talent level is more along the lines of the ZiPS (ROS) projection, though. Correct?
So assuming the ZiPS to be correct, we should expect Holliday to hit more along the lines of .285/.363/.472 to go along with good speed and a solid glove.
Given his past performance and his current production level, we would expect the .285/.363/.472 over the rest of the season, resulting in the .279/.359/.458. Add in the speed and glovework and he is still a valuable player, somewhere in the 3.5-4 win range… he just isn’t near the 6-8 win levels of 2006-08.
Aaah David C—my point is that baseball has been played since the 1870s and there are hundreds, maybe thousands of slashes to point to for reference.
The fact that Eric has Raul’s stats up in another window proves my point. He has Raul on the brain because what Ibanez is doing has been in contrast to what was forecasted. As I (and Eric) said we’re 1/4 of the way into year 1 of 3.
Lets see what happens but if he keeps this up long-term I’m hoping some experts will be man enough to admit it.
People claimed that the signing was terrible for any of the following reasons…..
1) he wasnt an upgrade from burrell
2) he wasnt worth the money compared to what was available and what they signed for (abreu, dunn, bradley, etc)
3) he’s too old
4) he’s one of the worst defensive left fielders in the world
lets revisit at the all star game when the season is 55% over….
Chuck,
The one thing I have to point out, once again, and this might be where I differ from others who panned the signing, is that my criticisms were pointed towards the process, not the product. Sure I was skeptical about the product, but that can be wiped away by even a regressed version of Ibanez right now. The process bothered me because Amaro is a rookie GM and he seemed to jump the gun on this.
Perhaps they saw something scouting-wise not evident in the numbers… or maybe it’s a chicken/egg thing where Ibanez worked crazy hard to improve once he heard all these criticisms. Who knows?
Evaluating moves needs to be part-process and part-product. Otherwise we assign credit for dumb luck. There is no way Amaro saw Ibanez as the monster he is right now, and Amaro has openly admitted that on air, saying he had Raul as a below average defender with a decent bat. Hearing those words tells me that they were using what we use, but incorporating character, etc into the mix. To me, that wasn’t worth 3/30 at the beginning of a depressed market.
So if Ibanez sustains awesome performance for 2-3 yrs, I’ll gladly say that my criticisms of the move were a bit off, but my critiques were on Amaro’s process, not necessarily Ibanez himself.
And your argument was that Ibañez was superior to Burrell despite similar expectations from the two. When Ibañez hits like Hank Aaron and Burrell hits like Tommie Aaron, that argument is out the window. Don’t act like you saw any of this coming.
bootsocks go read my posts on 2/12/09 under ibanez. i clearly said for the phils to improve they needed to swap burrell for ibanez.
pat’s incredibly steaky (like i said in my post) and may go bonkers when he gets off the DL so he’s tommy aaron now but could be hank aaron for a month or two. who knows with burrell? thats the blessing and curse of pat the bat.
no thanks, we’ll go with ibanez. he’s in a smaller park with a killer lineup around him. like i said, lets talk at the all star game.
Eric,
I heard Chris Wheeler ask leading questions to Amaro about Ibanez’s great defense on a telecast earlier this year and I didnt’t hear Amaro concede that Raul was a bad defender. They loved him as a character guy that would make more contact than Pat.
They picked the OF they wanted the most, went after him hard and got him. Maybe they left a few million or so on the table but thats the price you pay for being decisive.
Amaro also admiited that they do not have any statisticans in their employment so I doubt they are in tune with fangraphs. Keep up the great work.
Chuck
Chuck,
I forget which game, but McCarthy and Sarge were announcing and T-Mac asked Amaro what he thought about Ibanez’s glove, and Amaro’s exact quote was – “He’s surprising all of us. We had him as a slightly below average defender but he has certainly proved us wrong so far.”
Eric,
I know the game you’re talking about and just can’t find it. At the time of the signing they conceded Ibanez’s was perhaps a tick below average. They certainly didnt have him as a defensive liability. His fielding ratings are positive on the site and time will tell if he can keep it up.
BTW Eric, that wasn’t sarcastic in my note above. I really do enjoy your write ups and the site.
Take care,
Chuck
I love Raul Ibanez as a player and he seems like a great guy, but I still don’t like the terms of the deal. That pitching staff is terrible after Hamels, and that money was better spent on pitching. Check Jamie Moyer or Joe Blanton’s FIP if you don’t believe me.
It’s funny that Eric references confirmation bias earlier in the post, because that’s all I’ve seen in regards to Ibanez this year. “See, he’s had a great 2 months. That means a 3 year/$30 mil deal to a 37 year old LF was justified.” No, it doesn’t. It means he’s had a great 2 months.
Carl Pavano’s ERA after his first month with the Yankees was 3.10. Do you think the Yankees received a great return on their investment because of that 1 month? No, of course not, because a lot can happen in 3 or 4 years.
The signing doesn’t come down to Ibanez vs. Bradley, or Ibanez vs. Dunn, or Ibanez vs. Burrell. It comes down to Ibanez and Jamie Moyer vs. the various combinations of SPs and LFs that could have put the entire Phillies team in a much better position to repeat as champs this year.