Scott Hairston’s FanGraphs’ Legend Just Keeps Growing
You know, if teams would stop making transactions involving Scott Hairston, maybe we wouldn’t do so many posts about him…
Hairston, who knows the way from San Diego-to-Oakland-and-back quite well, recently settled with the Padres for $2.45 million dollars, avoiding arbitration. Hairston was traded by the Padres to Oakland during the 2009 season, then was traded back to the Padres a few weeks ago along with outfielder Aaron Cunningham. A player in his second year of arbitration is generally expected to get 60 percent of his open market value. Assuming a $3.5 million dollar current market value of a marginal win, Hairston, who will turn 30 in May, is getting paid as if he’s a bit more than a 1 WAR player.
Offensively, Hairston makes up for his below average walk rate and contact skills with good power. CHONE projects Hairston for .254/.315/.448 in San Diego, or two runs above average per 150 games in context-neutral linear weights. Defensively, Hairston has been above average in both center and left according to UZR. I have Hairston as a +2/150 position-neutral outfielder — that is, average as a center fielder, +10/150 on the corners.
Per 150 games Hairston projects as a 2.4 WAR player (+2 offense +2 fielding +20 replacement). However, Hairston has had problems staying healthy, never having played more than the 116 games he appeared in during 2009. The Fans notice this, and project him for 115 games in 2009. At that rate, he’s about a 1.8 WAR player. So this is a good deal for the Padres, depending on how they use him.
Hairston is a useful player at a price the rebuilding Padres can afford. Yet one wonders how long he’ll be in San Diego. The Padres are clearly at the beginning of a rebuilding process. At 30, Hairston is likely declining. Moreover, the Padres have a group of younger outfielders with more upside and years of team control: Tony Gwynn (27), Kyle Blanks (23), and Cunningham (24). (Will Venable (27) and Chad Huffman (25) might be in the conversation, but I’ll leave that to the prospect mavens.) Having Hairston around as a 4th OF or insurance in case, e.g., Cunningham isn’t ready, isn’t a terrible idea, but it’s not as if that is going to be the difference between the Padres and the playoffs this year. With his team-friendly contract, Hairston has more value to San Diego is a trade chip who wouldn’t be missed by the Padres (other than maybe his brother Jerry) as the Padres look ahead.
Hairston’s handedness also makes a difference. It’s easy to see a number of teams who could use a right-handed-hitting outfielder. I don’t want to exaggerate platoon issues, but teams with designs on contention such as the Yankees, Mariners, and A’s have been (or should be) looking for a right-handed bat for the outfield. Of course, the Yankees and Mariners have sort of addressed those needs with Randy Winn (although he’s a switch-hitter) and Ryan Garko (although he’s a 1B/DH). The A’s, of course, traded Hairston in the first place to address their hole at third base (in many ways, Kevin Kouzmanoff is a third base version of Hairston). Those are just a few examples. Given the distribution of handedness among outfielder/infielders, along with Hairston’s abilities and contact, it’s not hard to see him being part of a trade that helps both a trade partner’s present and the Padres’ future.
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*Shrek Hairston’s Fangraph Legend Just Keeps Growing
I don’t understand why the teams you mentioned “with designs on contention” weren’t knocking down Hairston’s door. I just read an article about how poorly Winn fares against lefties and I feel like there were other more viable options to throw in a platoon. I guess Hairston will just continue to be undervalued and unappreciated…
It’s what happens when your family name becomes synonymous with mediocre journeymen.
“other than maybe his brother Jerry”
After the family backlash from lil’ href, the Hairston family decided to stop letting computers name their children.
Goddamn html tags ruining my html tag jokes. THEY HAVE NO SENSE OF HUMOUR.
Since when are 30 year old players going into decline?
Probably just about forever, but at least since 1957:
see
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/basic_aging_curve_for_hitters_1957_2006/
and
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkimQBCeCjbijMtCKQ7ZgEg
and
http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt
for some basic starters
But JC says that peak age is actually thirty. And he has a PHD in economics, so you can go #### yourself blogger!
This guy stinks. His value is a myth.
Deep thought. Im convinced!
Good gawd…
Someone please tell me how 27-yo TGwynn Jr has “more upside” than 30-yo Scott Hairston, other than perhaps defensively…?
Hairston has two issues: 1) durability and 2) playing in PETCO
One is tempted to simply type “27″ and “30″ here, but since you’re obviously someone who appreciates the nuances…
1) the comment was about the others “as a group”
2) durability is an issue when discussing value
3) I account for park issues by using CHONE’s context-neutral linear weights
4) at 27, Gwynn is likely in his prime, whereas at 30, Hairston is likely declining
5) Hairston is offensively superior, but the difference (about 9 runs per 150 games that Hairston will never be able to play in a season) is pretty much exactly made up by Gwynn’s superior defense. the age difference means that Gwynn will retain his skills for longer than Hairston. So if they’re about equal right now (assuming Hairston could play as many games as Gwynn), Hairston is likely to be less valuable in the near future and that without dealing with…
6) Salary: “upside” aside (ahem), I also mention cost-control. Hairston is in his second year of arbitration, while Gwynn is still pre-arb for at least 2010. So if they’re both of equal value per game now, Gwynn is likely to be to be more valuable per game in the future, likely to play more games, and is cheaper. Given that, whom would you rather have?
Again, Hairston’s a decent player at a team-favorable salary. I just don’t think there’s much point in the Padres’ keeping him around if they can move him for a prospect or some other younger player. His value (both in skill and surplus contract value) makes that possible.
Also: one is 27, one is 30.
In 382 PA, Hairston has put up big numbers at Petco Park.
“The Padres are clearly at the beginning of a rebuilding process.”
The beginning? God damn. What took them so long?
The idea that Hairston may be traded at some point this season is interesting. Outside of the three teams mentioned above, what other teams are potential destinations?
I want to make clear that I’m not saying I know that that’s the Padres’ plan, or whether or not teams have an interest in Hairston, I’m just saying it makes sense…
The Yankees and Mariners seem to have “filled” their spots for now, although we’ll see as the season goes along.
Here’s some ideas — teams that might find themselves in contention this season and could use OF help that Hairston could provide. Again, I’m just throwing it out there; I don’t know everything about every team (too lazy to go back through all the depth charts).
Milwaukee might contend, and while Carlos Gomez is a good defender, if he’s totally bombing with the bat, Hairston might make sense. Don’t know whatother options they might have for CF… oh yeah, Jody Gerut, Hairston’s old platoon partner. Hmm… maybe not.
Don’t know of SDN will trade in division, but they seem to be trying to win now a bit, and their patience with Chris YOung might be running out. Also, Conor Jackson’s a decent player, but Hairston’s just as good with the bat and better defensively.
CHONE really likes Delmon Young’s bat, but with MIN looking like a playoff team but not putting ht division away, if Delmon starts to bomb yet again, Hairston is a better option than putting KUbel out in the field. They need a backup CF, too… frankly, Denard Span is the only decent OF defender they currently have.
The White Sox, who should have signed Thome, could use Hairston over Juan Pierre. Hairston would be good there, and could also back up Rios in CF.
I dunno… what do you think?
Scott Hairston sucks! Booooooooo Scott Hairston.
(Giants fans know what I’m talking about)