Scott Rolen
Roy Halladay is the hottest name on the trade market; making Toronto the center of the trade universe is the addition of Scott Rolen. The Jays have made Rolen available with a season and a half left on Rolen’s contract – one that includes a no-trade clause that Rolen would presumably waive to join a contender – Cots lists an “additional $4M bonus due to Rolen in 2010”, which raises the amount owed to 20 million. That’s a steep financial price to pay for a 34/35-year-old averaging 123 games the past three years.
Rolen is experiencing an inflated BABIP, raising his wOBA to .369 on the season. ZiPS suggests that’ll come back to Earth, but that he’s still an above average hitter moving forward. Gone are the days where Rolen would accumulate 15-20 runs on defense, but he’s still very much above average. So far his UZR/150 is 5.2, last year it was 8.5, and the year before 17.9.
Rolen should be an okay gamble for an additional season, but only for teams that can run the risk of a collapse. The Red Sox and Giants make the most sense. Boston has Mike Lowell eventually coming back, but in the meanwhile could maximize their roster by shifting Youkilis back to first and throwing Rolen in at third. You have some issues as to who plays when once Lowell returns, but I think that’s a problem Theo Epstein and Terry Francona wouldn’t mind. The Giants could shift Pablo Sandoval to first and upgrade their defense and offense at once.
Rolen’s not quite the catch he was in 2002 – when the Cardinals sent Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, and Mike Timlin to acquire him – but for a team in need of a third baseman with capable bat and glove in tow, he’s probably the best option remaining.
Print This Post
“Cots lists an “additional $4M bonus due to Rolen in 2010”, which raises the amount owed to 20 million.”
You have to keep reading. Below that, Cots says the following:
“acquired by Toronto in trade from St. Louis 1/14/08, with Toronto paying St. Louis $1.8M and the Cardinals responsible for $4M bonus due in 2010”
Any team acquiring Rolen would be responsible for the $11 million he is due next year and the remaining portion of of his $11 million salary this year, or about $15.5 million.
I know Rolen’s BABIP seems inflated, but the guy has a LD% of 26.5% right now, and if we just use the simple rule of thumb of adding .120 to that, his BABIP would be at .385. With that LD%, a BABIP of .345 is not that out-of-this-world.
Pat- given Rolen’s career (or at least since 2002) LD rate of 22.0%, it’s unlikely that he will be able to continue such a high LD rate. Also, it’s been shown that using that method is a poor predictor of BABIP:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/whats-the-best-babip-estimator/
You would be better off just using Rolen’s BABIP in previous years as an estimate of his true BABIP. In that case, given Rolen’s career .314 mark and the fact that it’s been under .300 in 3 of his previous 4 years, it’s very unlikely that he will be able to continue his current BABIP.
Thanks, Nick. I didn’t mean to imply that he has the ability to maintain a LD% of 26.5%. I meant to say that for a guy with a LD rate as high as he has, a BABIP of .345 is not outrageous. But I agree that we should expect a decrease in his LD% and BABIP going forward for the reasons you (and R.J.) mentioned.
Using Rolen’s career BABIP would be a highly flawed way to evaluate his current BABIP. Rolen is no longer the power hitter he was earlier in his career, and he’s realised this. The injuries he had the last few years basically made him throw out his old swing and develop a new one, along with a new batting philosophy. He doesn’t try to muscle the ball out of the park, and is content to slap the ball into the outfield with his high LD rate.
His LD rates in his three previous seasons (all of which mostly devoid of power) were significantly lower than his career marks.
Rolen made significant changes to his swing in august 2008 resulting in more line drives, as stated above. Previous power outages do not reflect this new approach, the were the catalysts for it.
And you know this how?
Which is why he developed a new approach and swing – his old approach hurt his shoulder, and he couldn’t prodcue power with it anymore. The new approach still doesn’t produce much power, but has seemingly improved his hit rates. He was actually fine last year aside from one prolonged and horrid slump (13/80 in July 2008), which was followed by being out for three weeks. This year he is being given constant rest as the season goes on, and it does seem to be working.
Rolen has made a transition more associated with pitchers – from power to finesse, essentially. It’s an interesting case – can Rolen re-invent himself as a hitter into the Ichiro mold?
I love how you guys are assuming that Rolen’s insanely high line drive rate is a product of him changing his swing, rather than just random variation.
Give me once ounce of proof (an article, swing analysis, quote) that he has actually done this and I will concede the argument.
http://www.kelowna.com/2009/07/03/keep-on-rolen-after-changing-his-swing-to-avoid-injury-last-year-the-jays-scott-rolen-is-a-complete-player-again/
I like the Red Sox picking up Rolen. Lowell was once an above average defender, but since his injury he has been awful in the field (-7.9 UZR thus far). When he does return, Lowell could occationally DH against lefties to spell Papi or play 3B to spell Rolen. At the end of the season, the Sox could trade one or both players for prospects, especially if they eat some of the money owed.
I think Jed Lowrie’s return is the main reason to think they would not do this. With Lowrie back, I think the Sox will play him at SS and move Nick Green to 3B until Lowell’s return. Improving the defense but weaken the hitting some.
In the last month of play Nick Green is hitting .182/.299/.288. He’s probably better than that, but he’s not any kind of solution at third base, long term or short term. There is no way the Red Sox go into the second half of the season with him as anything more than a third or fourth option.
Nick Green is terrible.
jed lowrie is also terrible
Probably the biggest problem the Red Sox would have trying to add Rolen is, Lowell isn’t expected back eventually, he’s expected back in 2 or 3 days, So, unless Lowell winds up back on the DL, I don’t see a way to squeeze 2 guys who only play 3B onto that roster until September that wouldn’t leave them with absolutely no OF depth. And I don’t just mean that they’d only be able to keep 4 OFers on the major league roster, I mean they’d also be left with nobody worth calling up from AAA if Ellsbury or Drew got injured.
re: Nick’s questions for proof. I can’t speak for all Torontonians, but listening to the games on the radio and reading about the team on site’s like batter’s box the change in swing has been talked about frequently since last season. I’m pretty sure it was when Cito Gaston took over with his cadre of hitting coaches that a suggestion was made. For followers of the team the conscious switch in approach has been accepted knowledge for some time. As for a newspaper article – I don’t have time to search, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s out there.
Some stuff on Rolen’s new swing:
http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/08/rolen_returns_with_new_swing.html
http://www.bluejayshome.com/news/rolen-finding-his-swing.php
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/486171
one more
http://www.kelowna.com/2009/07/03/keep-on-rolen-after-changing-his-swing-to-avoid-injury-last-year-the-jays-scott-rolen-is-a-complete-player-again/
Also, you can look at video of Rolen from 2009 and Rolen from 2007:
2009: http://mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200907085485165&c_id=tor
2007: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w=2007/open/tp/archive05/052907_slncol_rolen_hr_tp_350.wmv&pid=mlb_tp&gid=2007/05/29/slnmlb-colmlb-1&mid=200705301993907&cid=mlb&fid=mlb_tp400&v=2&id=574807
Definitely a less powerful swing, more apt for line drives than for long flies.
If my calculations using .15 * FB + *.24 GB + .73 * LD are correct, Rolen’s expected BABIP is .333. That’s pretty much right where he’s at. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he kept his BABIP relatively high.
If the Giants are getting Rolen they’re probably giving up Sandoval. The Jays acquired Glaus, then flipped him for Rolen when the turf hurt the former’s foot, because they didn’t have a 3B prospect, and with Ahrens and Fuenmayor sucking in the low minors they still don’t.
There’s no chance Sandoval is flipped for Rolen.
Well unless the Giants have another ML ready 3B prospect sitting around, that means they won’t get Rolen.
I remember Bud Smith throwing a no hitter against the Padres, what ever happened to him?
stopped injecting