Scutaro Joins Boston
If one were to create a list of towns in which they would least want to regress from a career peak in fear of fan disapproval, Boston would likely rank pretty high. If that same one were a shortstop, Boston would be the top choice nowadays. Marco Scutaro dared the odds last night by agreeing to a two-year deal. This would seemingly dash any chances of Dustin Pedroia moving to shortstop and it also leaves the Sox losing their first round pick – but remember, they just picked one up thanks to Billy Wagner. Whether this pick goes to Toronto or … say, St. Louis, will be determined as the off-season progresses.
Dave Allen penned a masterful breakdown of Scutaro’s game here, and there’s not much to add. He is 34 years old and coming off what appears to be an anomalous performance. His 2010 wOBA will probably land somewhere below league average and his defense is a mixed bag. We know that if Scutaro fails in Boston, he will be battered with talk about how he couldn’t handle playing for a contender or how his effort slipped after signing (by his standards) a big deal. We know this because Boston has done it to a pair of other shortstops in recent years: Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria. Here are some quick slash line comparisons at various stages of these players’ careers.
Season prior to joining Red Sox
Scutaro: .282/.379/.409
Lugo: .278/..341/.421
Renteria: .287/.327/.401
Three seasons prior to joining Red Sox
Scutaro: .272/.355/.379
Lugo: .284/.348/.405
Renteria: .308/.362/.440
Boston career
Lugo: .251/.319/.346
Renteria: .276/.335/.385
This isn’t to say something absurd – like shortstops simply cannot hit once they put on the emblem of Boston – but the coincidence will be the talk of the town when the inevitable occurs. Heck, it may not even take so long as spring training for people to write him off as a failure. Watch for the citing of his 100 career at-bats at Fenway in which he holds a .721 OPS and nine extra base hits or how his career batting average against the Yankees is .242 and an even worse .235 versus the Rays.
Scutaro swung the bat a smaller percentage of times and made contact more than he had previously done in his career. Will there be some retention in those areas? Probably. The safe bet seems to a wOBA around .325, which is coincidentally close to what the Fans and Bill James have projected. Scutaro’s defense is tougher to get a read on. Throughout his career he’s been a predominantly poor shortstop but the markings of improvement are there:
Season UZR/150
2009: 1.0 (1,252.2 innings)
2008: 20.3 (472.1)
2007: 2.6 (348)
The sample sizes from 2007-8 are uninspiring, meanwhile Dewan’s Plus/Minus has him worth 12, 9, and 1 runs saved during the same time period. Those numbers aren’t prorated and projected over 150 games though, so a direct comparison is more appropriate with the raw UZR figures of 0.9, 7.6, and 0.6. That just makes everything even murkier. The Fans Scouting Report held Scutaro in very high regard this season, placing him above Yunel Escobar and only three slots below Omar Vizquel. Just to be safe, project him at something like -5 < x < 5.
Without the financial terms, it’s hard to label this deal as worthwhile, a steal, or a blunder, but it would seem safe to assume Scutaro will catch some grief for simply playing like he always has.
0
I for one can’t wait for the inevitable arguments you mentioned. That seems like a safer projection than figuring out how well players are going to do.
Maybe he’ll get off to a hot start so his season averages won’t look too bad. I don’t wish him the ill of a Boston media looking for someone to attack.
Don’t expect a hot start to curtail Boston media. J.D. Drew started off on a tear here and people are STILL calling him a bum over a less than stellar 2007, despite being one of the game’s top right fielders the last two seasons.
As a Sox fan, this is infuriating. Epstein went out of his way to say that the mistake of the Lugo contract was paying for past performance, not future. The talk of Pedroia moving to short immediately opened an avenue for many solutions that were not necessarily in high demand. There should be no reason to expect Scutaro’s magical swing-at-nothing approach or flukish defense will end well. In this contract, I don’t see Lugo or Renteria. I see Craig Grebeck.
yes, but we now know that “Pedroia to SS” was little more than posturing to negotiate with Scutaro.
it was obviously never a serious consideration.
if it were, they would have done it. too many good 2B around for a similar price to conclude otherwise.
But then the Phillies immediately signed Polanco to a 3 year deal to play 3B, which both set the market for FA IFers and removed an alternative without subtracting a team from FA market for 2B.
Not sure I understand. Scutaro signed essentially the same deal as Polanco, except the 3rd year was in option form instead of guaranteed.
If Polanco set the market, then the Sox could theoretically get Orlando Hudson for that market price , and move Pedroia over.
Which, before Scutaro was signed, everyone seemed to think made the team better overall.
You are essentially arguing my point. It was never really going to happen.
While I think Pedroia COULD play SS, the Red Sox probably aren’t too high on shuffling around one of their best players to accomidate a FA market and minor league talent pool.
I’m not in love with Scutaro, but I’m trying to figure out what about Hudson makes him so much more appealing. He hits better, but his glove has become sub-par at an easier position than Scutaro plays. And we would probably pay the same $.
OK, I went back and actually read Dave’s piece on moving Pedroia. His argument was that Hudson and Polanco would be CHEAPER than signing Scutaro, so it might make sense.
I stand by my assertion that I don’t think the Sox were ever seriously considering this move, but I also understand what you are saying Judy. I apologize. I misremembered the argument.
So say a bad case scenario is Scutaro is around 2 WAR.
Why is that a bad deal? If he got about the same money as Polanco, then odds are he’ll perform at a good level.
His defense has been all around the map since 2002, but even a worst ever tie (-8.4) would leave him slightly under 2 WAR assuming he hits. We went safe rather than move around Pedroia (especially since he’d be right back to 2B in 2012). I’m fine with this.
This signing isn’t that bad guys. He is a middle infielder who can take walks and can play decent defensively. Doesn’t that have some value? He doesn’t have to be a starter everyday for the next 2 years, he is quite versatile which helps if/when an opportunity comes along to upgrade. Not to mention the fact that he will probably be competing with Jed Lowrie. Who knows maybe Lowrie comes back his injury and continues at his 2008 pace pushing Scutaro to a super utility role.
R.J. I hate to bring up the past but remember when you said, before the season started, that Tim Lincecum probably wouldn’t repeat his 2008 numbers ever again? Just wondering what you thought now, have you jumped on the Lincecum bandwagon? Trust me dude it’s a killer ride (marijuana optional)!
I don’t know, if you overpay for a utility IFer and call him your starting SS, does that make him a starting SS, or is he still just a utility IFer? Maybe it’s just me, but you can get to a point where a combintation of “doesn’t throw the ball into the dugout” and “OBPs over .300″ starts to look awfully good.
no idea what this means. Marco Scutaro is the Red Sox starting SS.
he’s ok. it’s nothing to celebrate OR cry about. which is frustrating on the internet. what else is there?
It means that he’s still Marco Scutaro. I’m just one Red Sox fan, but my own expectations are low and even my hopes are not very lofty.
Yeah, I really do not get the prissiness going on in here
First off, if Red Sox fans expect a repeat of Scutaro’s 2009, it’s because the media talked him up.
What will he earn, somewhere between $5 and $7 million a year? That’s fine.
And J.D. Drew got the shitty Boston treatment and has proceeded to do fine since.
Scutaro’s OBP the past four years is .352, which would have been better last year than all but a few AL shortstops. He has average power for a shortstop. Any reasonable review of defensive metrics suggest that he is an average fielding shortstop. So even if he regresses to his norm of the past four years, he’s a better than average shortstop.
Scutaro has been a starting shortstop for two years. His first year he was above average in the field and average at the plate. His second year he was average in the field and above average at the plate.
As for the guy who barely tops an OBP of .300 and doesn’t throw the ball into the dugout, I’m not sure who you mean. Alex Gonzalez fits the second part but not the first, since his OBP is below .300.
Barring injury, he will give Boston a 2-2.5 WAR. And, that could be conservative. Either way, this is not a bad deal. I would be hesitant about the 2nd year, but the money is probably pretty light. There is nothing wrong with a league average SS.
Especially with Iglesias waiting in the wings, and probably ready by 2012.
2 years 12.5MM. sounds pretty reasonable to me.
Pretty much a league average player contract (I guess you can add in a $5.5 mil opportunity cost due to Type A status). Even if we do call it a $18MM overall cost, it’s still basically asking for a slightly above average MLB caliber player. The only question is whether Boston put too much stock into the last two seasons and not enough in the previous ones.
Also for note, while Scutaro is unlikely to repeat 2009, his BABIP of .304 wasn’t too outrageous compared to his career mark of .289. At that BABIP, he would have had 7 less hits.
So let’s say 7 extra bleeders than expected went for singles and instead call them outs, and his 2009 line is:
155 H, 228 TB, 574 AB:
.270/.369/.397
Average SS in 2009 went .271/.328/.393. Essentially, Scutaro hits like an average SS, but walks more. His OPS+ (normal BABIP adjusted line listed above) puts him at 114 among SS, and his real tOPS+ here is 120. So I see the risk here, but it’s nothing compared to what many members of Red Sox nation would like to do, which is pay 34 year old version of Jason Bay like 18 million a year.
2 years at $12.5mn seems way to high for Scutaro. If he regresses anywhere near his normal performance, the Sox have a made another error at SS.
Also, in addition to the $6mn+ salary, Boston is losing a first round pick. Just because they are getting one from Atlanta doesn’t mean they had to throw their own one away. Furthermore, it is very possible that Atlanta could sign a FA who is rated higher than Wagner, meaning Boston will be without a first rounder.
I think the Sox had better options. Why not just return Alex Gonzalez? Boston is not only paying $10mn for an extra year, but giving a draft pick for that honor.
Alex Gonzalez + 1 year/$2.5mn + 1st round draft pick >> Marco Scutaro + 2 year/$12.5mn.
Wait, isn’t this the same Alex Gonzalez who we ran out just 3 years ago for hitting liek a blind person? Sorry if I’m not chomping at the bit for the 33 year old version of a .247/.294/.395 career hitter that’s prone to massive BABIP-induced fluctuations.
And I don’t get it, Scutaro’s “normal performance” in his career is pretty much the definition of an average SS. In the FA market, even after losing the first round compensation, his contract doesn’t look that bad. And if he performs to his projections, it’s a good contract.
Right, the same guy who is 2 years younger, $10mn cheaper, doesn’t cost a draft pick and did have an OPS+ of 95 and UZR/150 of 10.5 with Boston last year.
If you think it makes sense for Boston to pay $6mn + a draft pick for an average offensive/below average defensive SS then I guess the Red Sox are setting the bar low. I was under the assumption that Boston was trying to compete with the better teams in the league, which kind of means you need to aim a little higher than average, especially at this price.
Of course, that doesn’t even take into account Scutaro’s age and lack of a track record playing entire seasons.
So let’s completely forget Alex Gonzalez’s body of work because he had a good 44 game stretch? He went .210/.258/.296 in 270 PA’s in Cinci in 2009, sound good?
Scutaro probably won’t repeat his 2009, but if you’d bother to look, his ISO and BABIP were not highly deviated from his career marks. Look at his page and tell me what indicates unsustainability. The only real spike is his walk rate, and it was analyzed on here that he had cut down his strike zone, which makes it very reasonable to expect his BB rate to stay at 11% or more.
And great, a -3 UZR/150. Horrifying for a SS.
-2 bat – 3 fielding + 20 replacement + 6 positional = 21 RAR = 2.1 WAR. In ’09, teams paid about $4.5 mil in the FA market per win. So it’s reasonable to calculate an expected utility of Scutaro is worth $9.5 mil / year to the Sox, or $19 mil overall.
$12.5 mil contract + $5.5 mil opportunity cost (lost draft pick_ ~ $18,000,000
So it’s not without risks, but it’s really not a bad contract. Not to mention Mike Lowell and Jacoby Ellsbury both posted worse WAR’s than that in 2009.
So mind me if I’m unsure how much an average player is supposed to get on the market, I guess they’re useless. No need for Mike Cuddyer for any team.
Ah, so we are giving full weight to AGon’s career, but not Scutaro’s? As for what indicates unsustainability? Well, Scutaro has had one productive year with the bat…last year. At age 35, I think it’s a giant leap of faith to think that Scutaro has finally learned how to hit. If that’s what Boston is banking on, well, I guess that might explain why they have had such a problem filling the SS hole.
As for Lowell and Ellsbury not being productive, doesn’t that kind of suggest that the Red Sox can’t afford to settle at another position? Also, Boston has proven unwilling to go over the luxury cap, so giving out $6mn to a Scutaro is not insignificant, especially if it prevents them from going after other players this off season.
Compared to the $15 mil / year we initially offered Jason Bay, we’re moaning over $5 mil to Scutaro in 2010? And yes I will cite Alex Gonzalez’s career, since I’m not the one crucifying a player because he sucked in Oakland in 2005.
And Scutaro has ALWAYS had an aptitude for walking. His career minor league walk rate is almost exactly 10%. His last full year in the minors (2001), he walked 10.8% of the time.
We paid league average money for a guy projected to be slightly above league average to play a position where the Red Sox had a need.
And that isn’t arguing anything, citing a career year without any flukey occurances. No one thinks Scutaro repeats 2009, but it’s more than reasonable to expect a wOBA in the .325-.335 range. What happened in 2009 with Scutaro that is an unexplainable abnormality?
“At age 35, I think it’s a giant leap of faith to think that Scutaro has finally learned how to hit.”
Pretty sure he was 33 last year, but yes, age is relevant here. However, who said he learned how to hit? He actually learned how to stop swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, not necessarily hit.
Not sure what the heartburn is about. I think a lot of people were assuming that Scutaro was going to be looking at at least $20m of guaranteed money this offseason. He’s more valuable as an avg defensive SS than Polanco at 2B and rolling the dice on Pedroia at SS. And relative to Polanco at 3B, this contract is outstanding. Relative to the Gonzalez contract, they probably got rolled, but apparently they were focusing on Bay and AA got the best of them on that one. Could have turned out worse though. I wouldn’t be complaining too much if I was a Sox fan.
But most will anyway.
You’d think most would tell the media to shove it and listen to Theo given the results, but hey, what the media says become truth and gospel.
not for nothing, and I do think Theo does a good job, but is SHORTSTOP really the area where people should just “listen to Theo”?
Not that I think this is a bad move, but his past has been pretty sketchy at this position.
Don’t forget the Sox are still paying $9M for Lugo in 2010.
Touche, but to be fair, most everyone was sold on Lugo to Boston, so that’s all our faults.
Who was looking at that kind of contract for Scutaro? As for Polanco, he is a better hitter than Scutaro and a VERY GOOD defensive 2B. Scutaro, in very limited time, is a below average SS. Polanco is a better player than Scutaro. Both contracts were a big reach (the 3B issue is relevant, but in limited time, Polanco has good numbers there).
Scutaro contract = $1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2010, $5MM in 2011, and a 2012 option with a $6MM club option, $3MM player option, and $1.5MM buyout.
As a Sox fan, I’m certainly not excited about the signing; I mean the guy is league average at best when you look at career production. But in the same sense, to compare this to Rentaria or Lugo signing is silly considering the contract is much different. Two years for $12.5m or three years for $14m is much different than the $40m+ over 4 years that Rentaria and Lugo got. Scutarro doesn’t have the same ceiling as those other guys when signed, but his floor is known…it’s his entire career besides 2009 season. He won’t kill you like Varitek’s bat, but he’s not likely to be very helpful either – solid #9 AL hitter.
Since the Nomar debacle the Sox have hamstrung themselves by signing mid-level SS’s to long contracts at big $$$, then eating money to send them off. This short term deal give them the ability to fill the hole for relatively short money, and bide their time waiting for HanRam or another star SS to become available, or wait for that 19 year old ozzie smith type phenom in the minors to hopefully develop. If an opportunity pops up during Scutaro’s time, his contract $$$ won’t even be a consideration to the Sox, as he’ll likely be very trade-able, and the Sox could also easily afford to keep him as a super utility IF at that price.
As for media and fan scrutiny of Scutaro in Boston, I don’t see it happening. He’s a small contract, bottom of the lineup hitter from whom fans and media alike will have low expectations. Lugo & Rentaria were top of the lineup big contracts, and they were expected to be big players for the sox. Also, I think Scutaro’s
If Scutaro can play even average for his position, the Sox got what they paid for. Jed Lowrie isn’t dead, so they have a fall-back even if Scutaro plays like he did in 2004.
Sox fan here. I’m ok with the deal. I really didn’t like the idea of Pedroia moving to short and this doesn’t appear to be a break the bank deal, so as I see it we get an avg. SS until we get a better assesement as to whether the long term answer is on the farm. I feel pretty comfortable with the combo of Scutaro and Lowrie.
I am much more concered about 3rd base and the catcher position.
As a Jays fan I’m infuriated that Anthopoulos gave as much as he did to Gonzalez and John McDonald when for a few dollars more he could have had Scutaro back.
He’ll make it up to you by actually signing the two draft picks he collected.
The Jays are not going anywhere in 2010, so aren’t the picks more valuable than Scutaro’s 2010?
The Jays could be going somewhere in 2010 if they didn’t have this attitude that they aren’t going anywhere in 2010. Their pythag and WAR say they should have been in the 84 win range last year with 0WAR from CF and RF (either of which could be significantly improved by Mike Cameron), sub-0 WAR from Overbay’s platoonmate Millar, and Marcum on the DL all year. And considering Anthopoulos personally negotiated with Eliopoulos and failed to sign him, let’s not count our chickens before they hatch on the draft front.
If you looked at Marco Scutaro’s career line, you’d swear that he came up and got a cup of coffee in 2002 and 2003 at ages 20 and 21, rather than 26 and 27.
The fans have projected him to play 138 games and hit .273/.353/.374 with league average defence at shortstop, which works out to 2.7 WAR in 2010. The estimate of his durability is probably a bit high given his age, but certainly within the right bounds. And the performance estimate appears to be entirely reasonable. CHONE has him playing 128 games, but at a slightly higher performance level.
It seems to me that it is pretty likely Scutaro to best the surplus value they gave up in the draft pick form. Even if he was a 2 WAR player it would be a wash. IMO to call this a bad deal is pretty insane.
Even if you assume WAR is the definitive evaluator, Scutaro has only been over 2 in two seasons (his last two). In 2008, his defense was an outlier with the rest of his career, while in 2009 his offense was the outlier. Now, maybe Scutaro will outperform again, but at ages 34 and 35, I don’t think that’s a good bet.
Common in these comments has been the idea that Scutaro is an above average defensive SS, but he is actually below average for his career. Also worth noting is he will be moving from artifical turf to what many feel is one of the worst infields in baseball, so it will be interesting to see what impact that has on his fielding.
If Scutaro plays shortstop and has a -5 bat and is -5 in the field he will still be a 2 WAR player.
Comparisons to Lugo show why this is a good deal. Scutaro is more or less the same hitter as Lugo, but he’s a better fielder, and he costs less. If Lugo’s offensive performance had come with league-average or better defense at half the years and 60% of the AAV, that would have been a perfectly good contract. It was the overpay and the deteriorating defense that made it a disaster.
This is a short-term fix: the Sox plugged a gaping hole with an average player at a reasonable price while they see how Iglesias pans out. There’s nothing sexy about that, but nothing wrong with it either.
What makes Scutaro a better fielder? For his career, Lugo’s UZR/150 at SS is 1.5, while Scutaro’s is -2.9. Before coming to Boston, Lugo was actually a pretty solid SS, according to UZR/150, posting figures of 1.9, 17.5 and 4.8 in three full seasons from 2003 to 2007. Again, Lugo moved from turf ro Fenway, so maybe that had something to do with his defensive decline.
Marco Scutaro may have been an average player in 2008-2009, but those years (one on offense and one on defense) are out of line with the rest of his career, which considering his age, doesn’t bode well for 2010-2011. The Red Sox could have and should have done better. Settling on Scutaro will only lead to further problems at SS in the near future.
Comparing career UZRs may be a little misleading, since prior to 2008 most of Scutaro’s innings at SS came in the context of playing as a part-time utility guy. Anybody’s going to get better playing the same position every day–as Scutaro’s 2008 and 2009 showed.
Lugo, meanwhile, was indeed a respectable defensive shortstop once upon a time, but not for the past couple of years. Clearly there has been some kind of physical problem involved, and his range has shrunk drastically. And he never had particularly good hands, arm, or footwork. If Scutaro is a league-average defender that makes him a significant defensive upgrade over the 2008-09 Lugo.
BTW, I don’t understand what you mean by saying that “Settling on Scutaro will only lead to further problems at SS in the near future.” What further problems are you referring to?
Watching Scutaro a lot this year, it seemed to me he grinded out a lot of ABs, fouled off a lot of pitches and worked the count really well which goes well with the Sox overall goal of raising pitch counts to get the starters out early and try to gut the weaker mid-relief guys that most teams have.
If Scoots can be a “tough out” and play average SS, the Sox will most likely be content as he bats in the 9-hole.
I’m guessing Matt Holliday or John Lackey or someone will be signed and it won’t be a 1st rounder given up for Scutaro.
I know, I don’t get why people can’t grasp a player’s ability to adjust their approach and get better as a result.
Say Vlad Guerrero decides at 39 that he’s going to cut down his strike zone after a bad age 38 year, and sees a rise in his numbers. Is that beyond reason? No.
Not to mention Scutaro’s been a plus-walker in the minor leagues.
The only statistic that was a real deviation in 2009 was his walk rate.
Sox transplant in AZ here. Without getting into advanced metric this and advanced metric that, Im thrilled to have a league average SS. No, Scoots not Hanley, but Jeebus H. Crizzle people, we were a 95 win team with high school level production last year. Add 2-3 wins with him plus *hopefully* Holliday in left, and what do you get? 100 or more wins that’s what. Plus with the Spanks 4 or 5 career years last year coming back to reality and we win the East.
yes, luckily there is no chance anyone on the Sox gets injured or does worse than last year.