Comments on: Searching For Reasons

By: The A Team

The A Team — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:43:36 +0000

It seems like some people just forget what playing the game was like or else weren’t good enough in their playing days to make meaningful conclusions (that wasn’t meant as an insult). In my experience, there are indeed periods when the baseball looks like a beach ball at the plate and times when it’s invisible. This was more or less independent of who I was facing. My point is that an aspect of a player’s game can change subtly for a short period without underlying skill. I thought it was more accurate to say that for whatever reason Ortiz was failing to identify pitches than to say he was over the hill.

By: Tyler Howard

Tyler Howard — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:17:12 +0000

I am not saying that it is right or good….
Actually now that I think about it, I may have placed a reason on something where one is not needed. Oh well.

By: MPC

MPC — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:54:00 +0000

As Occam’s Razor points out, “of several acceptable explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest is preferable.”

By: verd14

verd14 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 13:58:23 +0000

“There are certainly times when looking for a reason makes sense, like with the current performance of Jimmy Rollins, but for the most part doing so is useless.”

That’s a pretty bold statement, seeing how a lot of the analysis done on the site, although insightful, might in fact be useless.

By: Colin Wyers

Colin Wyers — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 04:50:34 +0000

Sure. A lot of things are human nature. It’s human nature for males to be promiscuous. That doesn’t make it right or good.

My deepest wish for baseball analysis is for more people to simply not make that effort. When some guy is hitting well above what a reasonable projection system would spit out after the first few weeks of May, just say, “Well, we’ll have a better idea come June or July if he’s really changed as a hitter or if he’s just having a hot streak.”

The answer to the Ibanez question is: “He’s a very good hitter, and sometimes a very good hitter will hit like a bad hitter, and sometimes a very good hitter will hit like an exceptional hitter, and in the long run it should all come out in the wash.”

The problem is that people view the start of the season as being inherently more meaningful than it is.

By: Christo P. Ney

Christo P. Ney — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:53:40 +0000

And yes, Person B should be roundly criticized for such machinations.

In 2007, from the beginning of August through the end of the season, Ibañez OPSed 1.057 in 55 games.

In 2009, he OPSed 1.062 in 55 games.

That took me about three minutes to locate.

In this baseball world, nobody is above suspicion. I firmly agree. Nobody.

But until people like Person B understand that their typings are now open to the same ridiculous stupidity everybody else is, the weird circus will continue.

Can’t play both sides, folks.

By: don

don — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:49:53 +0000

There’s no reason to think there’s any more wrong with Rollins than there is with Ortiz or any of the other guys. He’s in a really prolonged slump, and sure, he’s not an MVP caliber hitter, but a .218 BABIP is simply ridiculous for a guy with his speed and his peripherals aren’t that different from normal. His ISO is hurting a little, but if bad luck on balls in play robs a triple instead of a single…

By: Tyler Howard

Tyler Howard — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:35:31 +0000

Well isn’t it human nature to find a reason for an event, especially if the event is not a likely occurrence, even if there is no evidence that supports it?

By: Jon

Jon — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:28:48 +0000

There’s a really good book about this very thing. It’s called “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Taleb. It’s geared toward the financial world and how we look for a pattern where there really isn’t one at all. If you have any interest in this article, the book might be worth a read.

By: Chris

Chris — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:25:09 +0000

One Santana-esque 3 hitter with 12 k’s and all this over the hill talk will be over. All his peripherals are fine except for a slightly elevated BB/9 and HR rate. I know he and the Mets aren’t panicking. But if your able to snag him relatively cheap from a panicked owner in your fantasy league, go for it! I was able to trade for Ortiz straight up for Yunil Escobar. Rollins on the other hand….