Comments on: Season in Review: New York Yankees http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: John http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-47237 John Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:53:26 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-47237 Dear Joe and Ray, 1. I ran a correlation analysis between all players w/ at least 300 AB in both '06 and '07 with their WPAs, WPA/LIs, and a "Clutch" score of (WPA-WPA/LI). Results: WPA, r = .4674, WPA/LI, r = .5844, CLUTCH, r = .0191 Clutch is not a retainable skill for ANYONE, let alone a talent 2. Using Bill James's clutch definition, binomial standard deviation theory, and A-Rod's BAs (havent gotten around to other stats yet), A-Rod is not, as Ray said "repeatedly bad in the clutch." He has had some bad years: 6th personal percentile in '06, 8th pp in '08. He has had some great years: 93rd pp in '07, 78th pp in '08. Since 2002, A-Rod is .283 (in 468 AB) of clutch and .302 overall. Given this, 5 in every 27 hitters would be .283 or worse in clutch. He is getting a little unlucky overall, with a lot of up-and-down movement. 3. Note: Despite his BA being 19 pts lower, his OBP is actually 3 pts higher, indicating he's not changing; the pitches he's getting are! Sincerely, A Sabermetrician Dear Joe and Ray,

1. I ran a correlation analysis between all players w/ at least 300 AB in both ’06 and ’07 with their WPAs, WPA/LIs, and a “Clutch” score of (WPA-WPA/LI).

Results: WPA, r = .4674, WPA/LI, r = .5844, CLUTCH, r = .0191

Clutch is not a retainable skill for ANYONE, let alone a talent

2. Using Bill James’s clutch definition, binomial standard deviation theory, and A-Rod’s BAs (havent gotten around to other stats yet), A-Rod is not, as Ray said “repeatedly bad in the clutch.” He has had some bad years: 6th personal percentile in ’06, 8th pp in ’08. He has had some great years: 93rd pp in ’07, 78th pp in ’08. Since 2002, A-Rod is .283 (in 468 AB) of clutch and .302 overall. Given this, 5 in every 27 hitters would be .283 or worse in clutch. He is getting a little unlucky overall, with a lot of up-and-down movement.

3. Note: Despite his BA being 19 pts lower, his OBP is actually 3 pts higher, indicating he’s not changing; the pitches he’s getting are!

Sincerely,
A Sabermetrician

]]> By: Joe Simas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45893 Joe Simas Mon, 06 Oct 2008 02:52:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45893 Practiced eyes and a commitment to watching the Yankees play at least 95% of regular and postseason games since A-Rod's arrival in '04 reveals a power-hitter unmatched, and, alas, a power swing that slips in and out of action with alarming regularity. Alex has his long swing which leads to his high K total--his high leg kick gets out of synch with his stroke resulting in off-balance hacks. His compact swing is a thing of beauty and mind-boggling fluid power. He gets his foot down and fires the bat effortlessly often driving the ball out of sight. Unfortunately, repeatability (as Double06 wrote), is sporadic to the point that it is, arguably, not a one of his consistently applied skills. As to arguing "clutchness", I really can't provide anything but anecdotal evidence based on nearly 40 yrs coaching baseball--without looking at stats, I knew who I wanted at the plate in a tight game...and who I didn't want with a bat in his hand coming out of the opposing dugout. Joe Practiced eyes and a commitment to watching the Yankees play at least 95% of regular and postseason games since A-Rod’s arrival in ’04 reveals a power-hitter unmatched, and, alas, a power swing that slips in and out of action with alarming regularity. Alex has his long swing which leads to his high K total–his high leg kick gets out of synch with his stroke resulting in off-balance hacks. His compact swing is a thing of beauty and mind-boggling fluid power. He gets his foot down and fires the bat effortlessly often driving the ball out of sight. Unfortunately, repeatability (as Double06 wrote), is sporadic to the point that it is, arguably, not a one of his consistently applied skills.

As to arguing “clutchness”, I really can’t provide anything but anecdotal evidence based on nearly 40 yrs coaching baseball–without looking at stats, I knew who I wanted at the plate in a tight game…and who I didn’t want with a bat in his hand coming out of the opposing dugout.

Joe

]]> By: Jonmo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45802 Jonmo Sun, 05 Oct 2008 09:33:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45802 I should clarify that I believe it's an exercise in futility because clutchness is an attribute that is quantified (via stats) to some, but qualified (via what they've seen or heard) to others. I put the WPA numbers out there to hopefully spark discussion over the quality of this quantity pertaining to clutchness. I should clarify that I believe it’s an exercise in futility because clutchness is an attribute that is quantified (via stats) to some, but qualified (via what they’ve seen or heard) to others. I put the WPA numbers out there to hopefully spark discussion over the quality of this quantity pertaining to clutchness.

]]> By: Jonmo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45801 Jonmo Sun, 05 Oct 2008 09:29:30 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45801 However if you want to compare the "clutchness" of A-Rod vs. Jeter, which in my opinion is an exercise in futility, wouldn't you first look at the WPA that each hitter totaled since it takes into account leverage? (A-Rod 0.47, Jeter -0.03) However if you want to compare the “clutchness” of A-Rod vs. Jeter, which in my opinion is an exercise in futility, wouldn’t you first look at the WPA that each hitter totaled since it takes into account leverage? (A-Rod 0.47, Jeter -0.03)

]]> By: Ray Cartagena http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45693 Ray Cartagena Sat, 04 Oct 2008 17:45:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45693 Rodriguez *is* repeatedly bad in the clutch. Not usually this bad, and rarely bad enough to waste time writing about (except in the playoffs, and even then only as a Yankee), so needless to say nowhere near as bad as the press would have you believe, but that's a matter of value vs. ability. If we're talking ability, A-Rod tops the list. If we're talking value...not so much. At least not this year. Rodriguez *is* repeatedly bad in the clutch. Not usually this bad, and rarely bad enough to waste time writing about (except in the playoffs, and even then only as a Yankee), so needless to say nowhere near as bad as the press would have you believe, but that’s a matter of value vs. ability. If we’re talking ability, A-Rod tops the list. If we’re talking value…not so much. At least not this year.

]]> By: Double06 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45687 Double06 Sat, 04 Oct 2008 16:54:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45687 Repeatable skills, Joe. Repeatable skills. Repeatable skills, Joe. Repeatable skills.

]]> By: Joe Simas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45619 Joe Simas Sat, 04 Oct 2008 06:10:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/season-in-review-new-york-yankees/#comment-45619 Mr. Carruth was clearly sleeping when he wrote this piece...he believes in what? Certainly not his eyes...not even very good on his beloved stats. A-Rod failed to deliver time and again when he was needed. Closing to within about 3 games heading into August, he banged into 11 DPs, many of which came in the midst of a rally...some ended games. A-Rod's absence for much of May was nicely covered by Jeter who smacked the ball around hitting over .350 during Alex' time on DL. Even in a bad season (I'll give him that), he drove in nearly twice as many runs hitting in the 2-hole Close & Late than the guy Carruth hailed as the best overall hitter in the AL this season. Did he fall asleep at end of regular season in '07? He had to be snoozing when Carmona fanned him twice in G2 of the ALDS with the game on the line. Set his alarm. Joe Mr. Carruth was clearly sleeping when he wrote this piece…he believes in what? Certainly not his eyes…not even very good on his beloved stats. A-Rod failed to deliver time and again when he was needed. Closing to within about 3 games heading into August, he banged into 11 DPs, many of which came in the midst of a rally…some ended games.

A-Rod’s absence for much of May was nicely covered by Jeter who smacked the ball around hitting over .350 during Alex’ time on DL. Even in a bad season (I’ll give him that), he drove in nearly twice as many runs hitting in the 2-hole Close & Late than the guy Carruth hailed as the best overall hitter in the AL this season. Did he fall asleep at end of regular season in ’07? He had to be snoozing when Carmona fanned him twice in G2 of the ALDS with the game on the line. Set his alarm.

Joe

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