Comments on: Should I Trade Roy Oswalt?

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 09 May 2008 15:43:37 +0000

John,

One of the things I’m planning on looking at is subsequent times through the order. He may have great numbers his first time though but then gets figured out. That’s a pretty drastic jump in BB/9. Could still be small sample issues but if it’s that way in another month, eeeek.

By: John Price

John Price — Fri, 09 May 2008 15:40:45 +0000

Thanks Eric. I remember Dave’s excellent article and look forward to your analysis as well.

Verlander’s control seems to have declined a bit; in 2006 his BB/9 was 2.76, last year 2.99, and so far this year 3.85. It also seems that he gets worse and worse the deeper he gets into the game. Could that plus his earlier velocity issues mean he’s hurt? I’m relatively new to this so I’m interested in what others think.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 09 May 2008 15:23:37 +0000

Tom, I wouldn’t. I think for someone like Brett Myers you’re approach would be somewhat sound because he has been very inconsistent. With Oswalt, though, it’s clear that his high numbers are a result of his three poor games to start the season. Trading him now would be one of those “moves that got away.”

MyMrBig, definitely! If you can convince someone that Oswalt is washed up because of his 5.33 ERA do it. You’ll have to offer something valuable, though, because otherwise they’ll realize you have something up your sleeve. I don’t think anyone would give up Oswalt for Eric Bruntlett.

John, will look at Verlander’s numbers next week. Dave Cameron wrote a good post here a few weeks back looking at his velocity and how it’s gone down, but it seems to have returned as of late.

By: Tom Au

Tom Au — Fri, 09 May 2008 13:39:54 +0000

In evaluating Oswalt, I did what some of our old profs used to do: throw out his worst “grade” (April 11, 8 runs, 4 HRs, 4IP against the Marlins). With what’s left, I get 21 ER in 45 innings, or an ERA of 4.20. Reconstructing his FIP in the same way gives something like 4.62. I’d accept a middling offensive player, a James Loney, Jeff Kent, or Edwin Encarnacion for him.

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Fri, 09 May 2008 13:32:35 +0000

A couple weeks (just after Oswalt’s 3rd start) I basically traded Izzy for Oswalt in an NL-only league. His BABIP was ridiculously high (and largely responsible for many of the hits he allowed his first few starts). He’s also been a better 2nd half pitcher the last few years. It might be too late to get Oswalt on the cheap from an astute fantasy manager, but there are plenty of less-than-astute managers out there!

By: John Price

John Price — Fri, 09 May 2008 13:08:04 +0000

OK, now do Justin Verlander. What the hell is wrong with him?

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 09 May 2008 01:04:32 +0000

Yeah I would definitely agree extended spring training is the best way to put it. ERA can be very deceiving in the early going.

There’s a difference between him underperforming early on and Brett Myers underperforming. Myers has been very inconsistent in the early going, following a good start with a bad start. Oswalt had three poor starts to begin the season but has seemingly turned things around.

By: David Appelman

David Appelman — Fri, 09 May 2008 00:38:30 +0000

I agree. In terms of fantasy, the time is soon coming (if not already here) when you will not be able to get Oswalt on the cheap anymore. Last week or the week before was probably the time to go get him. He’s striking out more batters than last year, walking about the same amount and appears to be “just fine”.

I read somewhere (can’t remember where) that Oswalt sort of took an extended spring training and I think that’s probably the best way to put it.