Comments on: Silva’s Pitch Selection

By: pozycjonowanie stron Warszawa

pozycjonowanie stron Warszawa — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 01:15:52 +0000

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By: David

David — Mon, 04 May 2009 09:31:51 +0000

If pounding the zone with 88 mph fastballs were the reason that his BABIP was up and not bad luck then wouldn’t we expect to see a change in K and GB rate. I’m trying to imagine how he might be getting hit harder so increasing his BABIP but not reducing his K/GB rate.

By: Sal Paradise

Sal Paradise — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 23:18:33 +0000

To make your graphs look nicer, please take a look at this page:
http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/2008/11/06/ten-chart-design-principles-guest-post/

Otherwise, wonderful work as always.

By: Josh2

Josh2 — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 05:53:48 +0000

Just to clarify, it looks like there are two Joshes here.

The one in response to Jeff’s comment is me. I’ll try to think of another moniker, unless Josh2 sticks.

By: Eric Cioe

Eric Cioe — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 05:36:34 +0000

What is a cutter other than a short, hard slider? It’s easy to see why they could be confused. Same thing with a splitter and a changeup. Tim Lincecum grips his “change” like a split, but you could never tell from the movement. It’s easy to see how some of these similar pitches get confused.

By: CaR

CaR — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 03:53:01 +0000

If one has to count on an embarrassingly inaccurate pitch identification system to tell what a guy is throwing, then he should probably stick to complaining about why guys don’t start every game throwing every pitch they have.

Sinking fb’s are not 2 seamers by rule, arm angle has more to do with action then how its gripped ever will.

Very few guys consistently throw cutters by choice, if its confused with a slider, why use the system? This “system” has been the basis for perhaps the most over rated “analysis” ever done on a pitcher, last year. Wrong then, and goofy-er now, throw it away.

By: Josh

Josh — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 00:26:05 +0000

I personally think that while is FIP accurate for most pitchers, it doesn’t handle the extremes well; it overrates strike throwers (like Silva) who leave a lot of fat pitches to hit over the plate, and underrate nibblers (like Matsuzaka) who pitch away from contact and avoid hard hit balls. Is it really bad luck if you keep pounding the zone with 88mph fastballs and wind up with a .350BABIP? I don’t think so.

By: Josh

Josh — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:05:42 +0000

Jeff,

The consideration is probably done that way because the ratio of GB/FB is used, rather than GB/(FB+LD). His career ratio is 1.52. However, 1.00 isn’t exactly neutral; it’s probably more like ~1.20.

Or, you could just consider that he’s a groundball pitcher relative to his peers. Over the last three years, his 1.33 ratio was 17th of 56 qualifying starting pitchers.

For example, if we require a greater than 50% GB rate to be considered a groundball pitcher, then only 11 out of 56 qualifying starters would reach that distinction.

Anyway, he’s practically neutral. If you grouped between flyball, neutral, and groundball pitchers, he’d probably be somewhere in the middle section (based on the last three years), right near the border of the groundball group.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 13:35:41 +0000

One thing that always bugged me about the analysis of Silva in particular, is that he really is not a ground ball pitcher. His first two seasons as a full time starter had him at about a 50% GB rate, and he’s been around 45% in the three seasons since. How can you give up more flyballs than groundballs, and be called a ground-ball pitcher?

Maybe all those fastballs are really sinkers, but how much “sink” can they really have.

By: Rich

Rich — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 13:18:04 +0000

Is there any indication that the reason that he is overly reliant on his fastball is an injury or arm pain, making it the only pitch that he can throw pain-free?