Comments on: Travis Snider’s Strikeouts http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 16:35:30 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: exxrox http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-99407 exxrox Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:58:53 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-99407 Snider is young. His swing is very fluid and quick, and happens in one motion. As he matures, it is obvious that his recognition of major league pitches will improve. His issue at this point is identifying the breaking ball and adjusting to the fastball; the result is a lot of hacks on high fastballs and breaking balls out of the zone. There is no denying the talent or his swing. I see him as a high power/high average upside. Even with a big K rate, as he establishes himself he will walk far more often, making him very dangerous. As a fielder, as someone mentioned, I think he is also underrated...his arm and general skillset fits the RF mold quite well. Lefty Carlos Lee? We'll see. Snider is young. His swing is very fluid and quick, and happens in one motion. As he matures, it is obvious that his recognition of major league pitches will improve. His issue at this point is identifying the breaking ball and adjusting to the fastball; the result is a lot of hacks on high fastballs and breaking balls out of the zone. There is no denying the talent or his swing.

I see him as a high power/high average upside. Even with a big K rate, as he establishes himself he will walk far more often, making him very dangerous.

As a fielder, as someone mentioned, I think he is also underrated…his arm and general skillset fits the RF mold quite well. Lefty Carlos Lee? We’ll see.

]]> By: Matt B. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-99155 Matt B. Thu, 24 Sep 2009 01:22:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-99155 Adam Dunn might be a stretch but maybe a poor man's Jason Bay? Adam Dunn might be a stretch but maybe a poor man’s Jason Bay?

]]> By: Torgen http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-99025 Torgen Wed, 23 Sep 2009 17:44:03 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-99025 Lind stopped being a prospect when he lost rookie eligibility, which was a long time ago. Lind stopped being a prospect when he lost rookie eligibility, which was a long time ago.

]]> By: Bert http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98997 Bert Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:39:18 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98997 For Snider gettin all the press as a can't miss prospect, everyone's over looked Adam LInd. He's more the real deal. For Snider gettin all the press as a can’t miss prospect, everyone’s over looked Adam LInd. He’s more the real deal.

]]> By: Neil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98969 Neil Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:26:44 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98969 I'm not understanding how much value to put in the contact rate stat. One would think that generally, high contact guys would hit for high averages and low contact guys would strike out more and hit for lower averages. But if you look at the lowest 21 contact rates this year you see: Hawpe Bay (next to Dunn) Ibanez Kemp (next to Uggla) Votto and other strange names Without even crunching the numbers, one would not consider any of the above a batting average liability and Kemp and Votto are career .300 hitters. I know the components of batting average are: BABIP (which involves a batted ball profile plus a player's speed) HR (or power to hit the ball with authority) K% but how much value should we assign to contact rates and K% when Bay, Hawpe, Votto and Kemp are in the same class as low average guys like Uggla and Dunn? When I need AVG help, I look for great contact and line drive rates, but that doesn't always work. James Loney is hitting about the same as Dunn, but with a 11% K%, 23% LD% and 89% contact rate (compared to Dunn's 33%, 21%, 73%). And at one point early this season, Justin Upton and Jack Cust had the same K%, batted ball profile and contact rates, but Upton was hitting about fifty points higher. AVG is such a frustrating thing to project....... I’m not understanding how much value to put in the contact rate stat. One would think that generally, high contact guys would hit for high averages and low contact guys would strike out more and hit for lower averages. But if you look at the lowest 21 contact rates this year you see:

Hawpe
Bay (next to Dunn)
Ibanez
Kemp (next to Uggla)
Votto

and other strange names

Without even crunching the numbers, one would not consider any of the above a batting average liability and Kemp and Votto are career .300 hitters.

I know the components of batting average are:

BABIP (which involves a batted ball profile plus a player’s speed)
HR (or power to hit the ball with authority)
K%

but how much value should we assign to contact rates and K% when Bay, Hawpe, Votto and Kemp are in the same class as low average guys like Uggla and Dunn?

When I need AVG help, I look for great contact and line drive rates, but that doesn’t always work. James Loney is hitting about the same as Dunn, but with a 11% K%, 23% LD% and 89% contact rate (compared to Dunn’s 33%, 21%, 73%).

And at one point early this season, Justin Upton and Jack Cust had the same K%, batted ball profile and contact rates, but Upton was hitting about fifty points higher.

AVG is such a frustrating thing to project…….

]]> By: Tom Au http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98957 Tom Au Wed, 23 Sep 2009 13:42:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98957 Travis Snider has power, but his lack of consistency makes him a replacement level player at best (according to FanGraphs). Statistics for rookies are like that of fighter pilots; equating one full year to one combat mission, one in five doesn't survive the first one; barely more than half survive the fifth one. Travis Snider has power, but his lack of consistency makes him a replacement level player at best (according to FanGraphs).

Statistics for rookies are like that of fighter pilots; equating one full year to one combat mission, one in five doesn’t survive the first one; barely more than half survive the fifth one.

]]> By: joe http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98874 joe Wed, 23 Sep 2009 07:40:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98874 Oh, you mean that lucky bounce on a routine groundball, and a groundball that snuck through the infield. Even a hitter cheating on pitches and just hacking away will get lucky sometimes. Oh, you mean that lucky bounce on a routine groundball, and a groundball that snuck through the infield. Even a hitter cheating on pitches and just hacking away will get lucky sometimes.

]]> By: Pete http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98868 Pete Wed, 23 Sep 2009 06:43:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98868 There must be a lot of house leaguers playing in AAA then. There must be a lot of house leaguers playing in AAA then.

]]> By: Renegade http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98857 Renegade Wed, 23 Sep 2009 06:13:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98857 Which is why he got two singles today on 95mph fastballs each... wah wah wah. Which is why he got two singles today on 95mph fastballs each… wah wah wah.

]]> By: joe http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/snider-swings-and-misse/#comment-98832 joe Wed, 23 Sep 2009 03:39:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9619#comment-98832 More like high 80's actually, everything over 90 he can't catch up to. More like high 80′s actually, everything over 90 he can’t catch up to.

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