Some Opening Day Musings
As the season begins, here are some of the areas that I think I differ on from the generally agreed upon consensus, for better or worse.
Teams I Like More Than Consensus
Baltimore – the pitching is better than people think and Wieters is on the way.
Atlanta – There are more strengths than weaknesses, and this is a roster with upside.
Seattle – Good defense and a couple of top notch arms make up for some other problems.
Teams I Like Less Than Consensus
Minnesota – A ~.500ish club when Mauer is healthy, and he’s not.
Philadelphia – Too many areas for expected regression. Long shots to repeat as champs.
LAnaheim – A ton of health problems and not as much depth as in past years.
Units I Like More Than Consensus:
Indians Rotation – Even if the experiments flop, there’s depth ready to step in.
Yankees Bullpen – Good arms, even if you haven’t heard of most of them.
Mets Offense – Could challenge the Cubs for the highest run scoring line-up in NL.
Units I Like Less Than Consensus
A’s Defense – Supposed to bail out the rotation, but I’m underwhelmed.
Red Sox Offense – Lowell’s back? Ellsbury’s bat? Varitek’s starting? Too many questions.
Cubs Bullpen – No relief aces in sight, which Lou will yell about frequently.
Players I Like More Than Consensus
Kosuke Fukodome – He’ll play a decent center field and hit enough to be useful.
Yunel Escobar – The Braves should be thrilled the Padres didn’t take him.
Josh Hamilton – It’s become cool to call him overrated. He’s not even at his upside yet.
Players I Like Less Than Consensus
Dustin Pedroia – Had a really good 2008. I doubt we ever see a repeat.
Matt Cain – When HR/FB rate regresses, people are going to wonder what’s wrong.
Jake Peavy – Padres should have sold high when they had the chance.
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I’m a Red Sox fan, so I love Dustin Pedroia, but even I’ll admit that when he had to leave the WBC, my first thought was that Team USA just lost the AL MVP, and replaced him with an upgrade.
Could not agree more on Escobar and Peavy. Cain is the one that caught me by surprise, but I guess he’s more of a 3 than a weak 1/strong 2 that he’s generally pegged as. Gotta get those walks down.
Weren’t the Mets second in RS in the NL last year? Does the consensus have them regressing? They may make a run against the Cubs but probably because the Cubs won’t score over 850 runs this year.
Along with Pedroia I don’t see Youkillis repeating last year
How in the world is Carlos Marmol not a relief ace???
HR issues is probably his rationale, but I’m personally discounting his expected contributions by assuming his elbow literally explodes by June.
didn’t the phillies offense actually regress last year? no one really had a career year last year. the offense was much better in 2007 than 2008.
the bullpen won’t be much worse and the SP will probably be about even. especially if myers doesn’t end up in the minors again.
If you compare the Phillies regulars’ BABIP last year with the xBABIP from the hardball times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/) every regular but Werth had bad luck on balls in play. Or perhaps the stadium played funny, and that’s why their defense had the #1 UZR, and both their offensive BABIP and defense will regress towards ‘expected’.
The main arguments I see against the Phillies would be that
1) Hamels isn’t likely to pitch 230 innings this year
2) Moyer isn’t likely to repeat his performance from last year (probably true, but Moyer is already in the twilight zone)
3) The bullpen won’t be so clutch (but their hitters last year were almost as anti-clutch as the pitchers were clutch)
4) The core isn’t getting any younger
5) Burrell > Ibanez
They gave 50 starts, and 250+ essentially replacement level innings to Kendrick and Eaton last year. If they get anything at all from Blanton/Happ/Carrasco/Park, that helps offset losses from the #1 and #3. Myers doesn’t exactly have to set the world on fire to match his line from last year.
I think the Phillies are being underrated by the stat community partly as a reaction to the fact that they’re being overrated by the mainstream media, personally. Barring crazy luck they’re not going to run away with the East, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them end up with the wild card, either.
zomg Mariners bias!!11!!
(sorry- I won’t do that again)
while many of the pundits have been focusing on how the A’s and Angels match up, I’m more excited about how any of the 4 AL West teams could go on 1 or 2 hot streaks and find themselves division leaders.
It seems that the Mariners continue to make poor decisions, yet they keep getting the benefit of the doubt on this site.
It’d be nice rather then just make a “continue to make poor decisions” you’d actually substantiate that claim by providing and example/commentary of a poor decision by the M’s
I’d guess we’re talking about sending Clement to the minors and letting Brandon Morrow dictate what role he’s going to play. Obviously, most of us felt that Clement should have been allowed to continue developing at the big-league level, but it’s certainly possible (probable, even) that the Mariner’s brain trust knows something we don’t. As for Morrow, if this is a health-based issue, then fine; if he went to the bullpen on a whim, not so fine.
Why should the M’s get any kind of benefit of the doubt, though? What has the Mariner’s brain trust done to warrant us believing that they know something we don’t know.
Jeff Clement is 25 at this point. He has 1200 PA in the minors, 1000 of them at AAA. Catchers don’t necessarily have the longest shelf lives.
Morrow has the stuff to be an above average/good starter down the road. There have been half a dozen articles saying this here over the past two weeks. It would be redundant to say that above average starters>95% of relief pitchers, but I just said it. Still the conclusion reached is that the Mariners must know something that is beyond our collective understanding. Why?
Now the Phillies, whom nearly everyone on this site are selling short this year, had a somewhat similar position last year. They could have left Brett Myers be a very good closer (most likely) or they could move him to the rotation, where he would be an above average starter. They choose the latter, and took a risk on Lidge as closer. This turned out to be a fairly good decision and I believe things turned out fairly well.
Somehow the M’s can make logically poor decisions, and yet writers on this site will go on and on about how solid this franchise is moving forward. They have one of the worst farm systems (in article on this site the author says that he believes they are “most likely to improve” out of the bottom ten farm systems–though offers no reasoning). They have a poor major league roster that is old. Is it really making the team better in the long term to have Griffey taking major league at bats from Clement?
If you had to pick an out of nowhere team for this year I think it would be the Mariners. The early returns clearly are not favorable though.
I’d say The Reds, good core with: Bruce, Votto, Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Phillips…not to mention nice role players like Alex Gonzalez and Edwin Encarnacion with a solid bullpen.
Guys I have a question about WPA
In the 2nd inning of the Mets/Reds game
Ramon Hernandez lined out to right (Fliner (Liner)). credited with .026 WPA???
Encarnacion ran himself into a doubleplay but why did Ramon get that much WPA for getting a useless out?
The Mets game had some issues because the outs were not updated correctly. Generally we’re working through issues with the live feed right now and hope to have them completely resolved later this week.
The feeds we use for the live games are not the same we use for the game after data. The game after data is checked and corrected and will not exhibit the same problems, so I would not use the live feeds for any serious analysis.
I (a former Pittsburgher) think that the Pirates will surprise. Not to say that they will make the playoffs or World Series like the Tampa Bay Rays last year. But they could finish fourth, or even third, in the division.
This is the year that the pitching will right itself (to league average levels). Then it will be up to the hitting to see if the team ends up over, or under, .500. It would have been a much better team in this regard with Jason Bay and even Jose Bautista. But the Bucs will have to work with what they have.
I think the Pirates are going to surprise…you. Joe Kerrigan isn’t that good.
I think either them or the Astros are the worst team in MLB
This is the year the Pirates break the Phillies record for most sub-.500 seasons, right?
I’m glad they’re keeping it in state. Go Pennsylvania!
You must be a Yankee fan. Ellsbury led the AL in steals w/ 50 & you can probally count on a number better than that this year. Lowell is just fine so you should expect .280/15/90
The Sox have deeper starting pitching & a better bullpen than the Yanks. The way CC pitched today against Baltimore,ouch! Not to mention AROID is out for 4-6. Suddenly the Yankees don’t look so scary. The Yankees could find themselves quickly in a hole behind Tampa & Boston.
I like my chances Yankee Fan.
As a Red Sox fan myself, let me point out the problems with your assertations. It doesn’t matter how many bases Ellsbury stole last year. He is the Sox’ leadoff hitter and as long as he is getting on-base at a below average rate, his production is a problem. As for Lowell, he’s a 35 year-old third baseman coming off of extensive hip surgery. Even if he is fine (and I don’t know how you can possibly know for a fact that he is fine,) it is extremely unlikely that he will continue to be the defensive force at third that he has always been. So even if he does bat near his career averages, it’s likely that his overall value will take a major hit.
I agree that the bullpen is better, though not by much. Part of the problem is Tito’s managing though. He’s managed to turn his second best reliever (Delcarmen) into a sixth-inning guy and is going to get burned if he keeps letting Masterson face tough lefties. And both rotations are deep. The Sox and Yankees are both strong 1 through 5, with good depth in the minors. And that is, of course, ignoring that the Rays just might have the best rotation of the three (especially if Kazmir is healthy and finally gets his control reigned in a bit better.)
Oh, and Dave is a Mariners fan. You should probably check out USSMariner if you don’t believe me.
Yes, everyone in the world is either a Yankee Fan or Red Sox fan, and if they don’t think that the Red Sox could have beat UNC for the NCAA championship, then they must be a “Yanks fan”.
I like your writing less than consensus.
I already changed from Matt to Matt H. Now there is another one, crap.
Pedroia is no Utley, that’s not a secret, but you don’t see him EVER repeating last year? I mean, he might never 20 HR, but he’s never gonna put up an OBP better than .376? He won’t win MVP again, but I’m sure that’s not what you meant. I just think it’s funny when people use the term “career year” (and I know you didn’t specifically) when referring to a guy’s second year in the big leagues.
Good point. Pedroia most likely won’t match his 17 HR output, but there isn’t any reason to believe he can’t continue to grow as far as BA and OPB is concerned. His BABIP remained constant his first two years and he “seems” like the type of player that would have a higher than average BABIP, so there is no reason to believe that he can’t put up BA above .330. His OBP could increase with a little extra patience. He’s already shown a lot of skill on the base paths and if he maintains or improves upon last years glove work, the guy solidifies his position has second best second baseman (which is an awkward sounding sentence).
Also. Fenway has got to help a lot.
And he will always have solid bats around him.
What part of the Orioles pitching is better than people think? I’m very curious
No matter how incrementally better Mr. Cameron thinks the O’s pitching is better than consensus, their division is not going to do them any favors.
I would love to hear his logic though…
But, then again, he thinks that the M’s defense and “a couple of top notch arms” (Felix and Bedard…for 1/2 a season…I guess?) are going to surprise people.
Matt Cain isn’t even 25 years old yet, give him a break.
As for the Yankees Bullpen I’m guessing your considering Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Phil Coke, and Brian Bruney the nnames we never heard of. Well I have heard of them and I don’t think they are anywhere near the Red Sox or Rays and in reality that’s the only bullpens they need to be compared to.
I almost always love your Articles Dave, but I’m not so sure about this one.
Cain’s age isn’t necessarily a big deal. Pitchers don’t have a standard aging curve and Cain has basically been the same pitcher since his arrival, just picking up a few more innings per season. On the internet he’s still widely viewed as the unlucky ace screwed over by his run support, while xFIP pegs him as a borderline #3 starter enjoying the benefits of a very spacious park.
His numbers last year on the road were similar to his home numbers.
Hooray for him. He still benefited from his home park, and luck in general.
AT&T Park has been a hitter’s park for the past three years, according to B-R.
Hooray for him indeed. I love when people throw around the term luck. Its about the most unscientific thing possible. It should be assumed that “luck” is evenly distributed, not that some players are “lucky”. You might as well as say Cain benefited for the benevolence of God last season.
Last season Cain had a .304 BABIP, which is neither ‘lucky’ nor ‘unlucky’. His ERA at home was 3.67 and on the road 3.88. Cain has also now pitched over 100 major league games, yet if you want to believe that Cain has maintained some degree of continuous luck over the past three years, be my guess. It just seems that for a crowd of people who claim to employee logic, statistical analysis, and objectivity it is a silly term to throw around so loosely.
6.4% of Cain’s fly balls, for his career, have left the park. That’s really low. There’s only 13 starters under 9% over the last 3 years, and he’s under it by nearly a third. Is it repeatable? Maybe. Probably not. He’s a flyball pitcher, so if he has a season where it’s a more typical 10% or so, his ERA will suffer greatly.
A1
Most pitchers allow one home run for every 10 fly balls.
Matt Cain allows one home run for every 15 fly balls.
Therefore, Matt Cain is lucky.
This is a fallacious argument that does not stand up to reason. Last year Tim Lincecum gave up a HR on 5.7% of his fly balls and Barry Zito gave up a HR on 6.8% of his fly balls. Matt Cain also gave up a HR on 6.8%. 2007 had similar result with low HR %’s for Giant’s pitchers. It then seems that Matt Cain is not lucky, per se, as it seems likely that Giant pitchers can expect to have low HR-to-FB ratios. Which brings us to:
A2
AT&T Park has large dimensions.
Matt Cain gives up fly balls.
Therefore, Matt Cain is lucky.
Again neither logical nor reason dictates this to be true. It seems to hold that Giant pitchers do not need to worry as much as Cole Hamels does about fly balls reaching the stands. There exists statistical evidence that they give up less HR’s to fly balls. It is then possible to assume that Giant’s pitching will be more willing to challenge hitters with pitchers that will induce fly balls, which would be a proper and sound strategy. This would, however, not make a pitcher with a low HR/FB ratio lucky.
Which brings to:
A3
Matt Cain’s home park allows him to give up fly balls.
Matt Cain has high fly ball rates.
Matt Cain is luck to pitch in AT&T Park.
Again, a poorly constructed argument as Matt Cain has good home/away splits. Opposing batters had a .723 OPS against him at home and a .724 OPS on the road. He walked fewer on the road. Gave up similar HR per AB numbers.
I don’t have home/away splits for HR/FB, which would be interesting to see. Does anyone know where to find them? It seems that Cain tries to strike people out more on the road, which could indicate a change of approach.
The projection systems on this site also believe that Cain will continue to be a very solid pitcher, its always interesting to me that people will alternatively use these as biblical verse and totally ignore them when they contradict their opinion (though thinking of the metaphor, it does make sense…).
What David C Eisen said.
A1: rather than cherry picking the three luckiest Giants pitchers, you could have gone with – the Giants as a team had an 8.8% HR/FB rate. Cain is still well below it. Is this repeatable? Maybe. Probably not. He’s most likely still somewhat lucky. His K/BB ratio hovers around 2. Not bad, but nothing to write home about, especially for a flyball pitcher.
A2: Correct, building a team tailored to its home stadium is good team construction, not luck. He is, to some extent, lucky that the NL west as a whole is light on sluggers (since that’s something neither he nor the Giants can control).
A3: A2 restated, because you like typing words.
Last year Giant starters had a 7.7% HR/FB; in 2007 they had a 7.7% rate as well. In 2008 they had the lowest rate, in 2007 they had the second lowest rate. Unless you are saying that Giant pitching has benefited from enormous luck over a two year span, you have no argument.
Further, I’m not cherry picking anything, there are two pitchers on the team that have rates above 10–Mitsh and Hennessey, who are both over 15%. For SP that threw more than 1000 pitches these are the HR/FB numbers: 5.7, 8.4, 7.7, 6.8, & 6.8. In 2007 here are the rates: 5.5, 6.9, 8.1, 8.2, & 9.6.
A2 & A3 are different arguments. A2 is stating that Matt Cain gives up fly balls independently from playing in AT&T Park. A3 is stating that Matt Cain’s numbers are only good because of pitching in AT&T Park, and thus he is lucky. Neither is true or saying the same thing, because it is equally logical to say that Matt Cain giving up fly balls is not independent from playing in AT&T Park, but instead a conscious decision. In A3 the argument is fallacious because he has nearly as good road numbers as home. I do like typing words, but I’m not sure what else I should type.
I’d like to see what the Yankees pen can do with competent management, and a strong rotation so they’re not overused all the time.
No mention of the Royals? That division has no clear cut winner. Everyone’s point at their staff – they don’t have the most elite staff but they’re at least mediocre with an excellent back end bullpen.
farnsworth. lol.
Last night is an example of what I mean. The Pirates won’t have a huge Pythagorean percentage based on runs scored versus runs allowed, but will win a lot of “close” games (as they have in the past), meaning that their actual won-loss percentage will exceed their sabermetrics.
that doesn’t make any sense. Do the Pirates have some magical “win close game” ability that I don’t know about?
Winning close games is just not a skill. Sorry.
Really, you’re not impressed by the A’s defense? Suzuki, Ellis and Cabrera make up a pretty good defensive infield no matter who’s at 3rd or 1st. And if Chavez is healthy (yes, yes, big IF), he should remain at least above average at 3rd. Holliday is an above average LFer and Sweeney has too small of a sample size in CF to make much a of a conclusion. The tools are there though, so I don’t think he’ll be any worse than average. Then, if Buck starts most nights in RF, RF will be above average as well. That only leaves 1st base a sure fire below average defensive positions for the A’s. With questions at 3rd and RF based on health and playing time issues.
I have to second the “career year” from Pedroia objection. 2008 might be his upside, but the chances he at least comes darn close to matching his 2008 season at some point in the next 5 years seem pretty close to 1.
I’m with you on the Angels. I couldn’t believe my ears last night when who ever that was on ESPN said he expects the Angels to win the division by double digits again this year. I’d love to take that bet. I then proceeded to watch the game on mute.
WRT:
Mets Offense – Could challenge the Cubs for the highest run scoring line-up in NL.
Could be, but they’re in a new park and early (and obviously not-yet-trustworthy) impressions are that it plays “big” especially for RH hitters. That will hurt Wright the most, but playing in a more pitcher-friendly home park would make it more difficult for them to challenge the Cubs in offensive production (though it may help them overall).
I don’t understand the Matt Cain regression statement. Last season, he regressed from the 5.5% HR/FB rate he put up in 2007…
The issue with Marmol is that many think he doesn’t have a closer’s makeup. Not as far as talent cause the kid can flat out pitch, but more the mental side, especially on how he’d handle things if he has a few blown saves in a row.
What happened to him in the WBC compounded that generalization, and I also think that’s a big reason why Lou chose Gregg to close.
Pedroia, 2008 might be his upside, but the chances he at least comes close to matching his 2008 season at some point in the next 5 years seem to be 100 percent. If you look at the age curves for infielders this seems pretty darn clear. If you look at Boston’s development program and fan support I don’t see any reason Pedroia would be slowing down. Pedroia is the reigning MVP and has something to prove and the numbers say he is capable of proving it again and again.