Further, I’m not cherry picking anything, there are two pitchers on the team that have rates above 10–Mitsh and Hennessey, who are both over 15%. For SP that threw more than 1000 pitches these are the HR/FB numbers: 5.7, 8.4, 7.7, 6.8, & 6.8. In 2007 here are the rates: 5.5, 6.9, 8.1, 8.2, & 9.6.

A2 & A3 are different arguments. A2 is stating that Matt Cain gives up fly balls independently from playing in AT&T Park. A3 is stating that Matt Cain’s numbers are only good because of pitching in AT&T Park, and thus he is lucky. Neither is true or saying the same thing, because it is equally logical to say that Matt Cain giving up fly balls is not independent from playing in AT&T Park, but instead a conscious decision. In A3 the argument is fallacious because he has nearly as good road numbers as home. I do like typing words, but I’m not sure what else I should type.

A2: Correct, building a team tailored to its home stadium is good team construction, not luck. He is, to some extent, lucky that the NL west as a whole is light on sluggers (since that’s something neither he nor the Giants can control).

A3: A2 restated, because you like typing words.

What happened to him in the WBC compounded that generalization, and I also think that’s a big reason why Lou chose Gregg to close.

This is a fallacious argument that does not stand up to reason. Last year Tim Lincecum gave up a HR on 5.7% of his fly balls and Barry Zito gave up a HR on 6.8% of his fly balls. Matt Cain also gave up a HR on 6.8%. 2007 had similar result with low HR %’s for Giant’s pitchers. It then seems that Matt Cain is not lucky, per se, as it seems likely that Giant pitchers can expect to have low HR-to-FB ratios. Which brings us to:

A2
AT&T Park has large dimensions.
Matt Cain gives up fly balls.
Therefore, Matt Cain is lucky.

Again neither logical nor reason dictates this to be true. It seems to hold that Giant pitchers do not need to worry as much as Cole Hamels does about fly balls reaching the stands. There exists statistical evidence that they give up less HR’s to fly balls. It is then possible to assume that Giant’s pitching will be more willing to challenge hitters with pitchers that will induce fly balls, which would be a proper and sound strategy. This would, however, not make a pitcher with a low HR/FB ratio lucky.

Which brings to:
A3
Matt Cain’s home park allows him to give up fly balls.
Matt Cain has high fly ball rates.
Matt Cain is luck to pitch in AT&T Park.

Again, a poorly constructed argument as Matt Cain has good home/away splits. Opposing batters had a .723 OPS against him at home and a .724 OPS on the road. He walked fewer on the road. Gave up similar HR per AB numbers.

I don’t have home/away splits for HR/FB, which would be interesting to see. Does anyone know where to find them? It seems that Cain tries to strike people out more on the road, which could indicate a change of approach.

The projection systems on this site also believe that Cain will continue to be a very solid pitcher, its always interesting to me that people will alternatively use these as biblical verse and totally ignore them when they contradict their opinion (though thinking of the metaphor, it does make sense…).

Last season Cain had a .304 BABIP, which is neither ‘lucky’ nor ‘unlucky’. His ERA at home was 3.67 and on the road 3.88. Cain has also now pitched over 100 major league games, yet if you want to believe that Cain has maintained some degree of continuous luck over the past three years, be my guess. It just seems that for a crowd of people who claim to employee logic, statistical analysis, and objectivity it is a silly term to throw around so loosely.