Scappy, also, with regards to pitching out of the stretch, we wouldn’t just have to look at Sonnanstine’s splits with bases empty vs. runner on 1st/runners on but rather how he differs in that regard from a larger group. For instance, if we find that Sonnanstine has a much higher OPS against with runners on 1st than bases empty, it is interesting but not conclusive until we compare it to a big group. If we find that everyone in the larger group has a much higher OPS with runners on 1st than bases empty, but have not been as “unlucky” as Sonnanstine then we couldn’t really use that as the cause.

For most of the pitchers whose ERAs don’t match their FIP, it has to do with a lower than expected strand rate. I think there could be something to the theory that certain pitchers don’t pitch as well out of the stretch as we would expect them to, and so FIP will overestimate their abilities by normalizing their LOB%.

But I would also caution against drawing any conclusions about guys like Sonnanstine and Belisle based on small samples. Without specific evidence explaining why they are the exception to the rule, it’s best to assume that regression to the mean will kick in. Too often, fans jump to conclusions based on small sample results that are simply not true.

Belisle has decent stuff. He gets a fair amount of strike outs and keeps the walks down. But when he misses the zone, he misses thigh-high over the plate and gets lit up.

I’m beginning to realize that BABIP is not a normal distribution. The distribution actually skews left. However, because pitchers with high natural BABIP don’t have very good results, they don’t tend to stay in the majors long. Thus, the BABIP distribution for major leaguers more closely resembles normal. Unfortuantely, for a guy like Matt Belisle, and perhaps Andy Sonnanstine, FIP simply cannot account for how hard he gets on a regular basis, even when keeping the ball in the yard.