Comments on: Spread In Talent

By: Guy

Guy — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 14:45:32 +0000

We can see that the spread of fielding talent is nothing like 50 runs just by comparing CFs to corner OFs. CFs are 10 runs better, according to Tango’s position-switching analysis. And basically, CFs are the top third of the defensive talent pool, while CRs make up the bottom two-thirds. So, the 84th percentile (the mean CF) is 10 runs better than the 33rd percentile (mean CR). So 10 runs = 1.5 SD, 1 SD = 6.7 runs, consistent with MGL’s estimate. The difference between a good and weak defensive OF is about 13-14 runs, or 20 runs if you want to use 3 SD.

By: rk

rk — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 01:08:16 +0000

Maybe I’m just a moron, but can someone explain this graph to me. What is the x-axis? Are the points correlated (I’m guessing no because I wouldn’t expect hitting, range, and arm to necessarily related). So this is just showing the range of values dissociated from the player? I can see the value in that, I suppose. (love the site, sorry for my confusion, just getting into these stats)

By: MGL

MGL — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 18:44:09 +0000

Yes, if those numbers are for 2008, then Guy is right in that the actual spread in “talent” is much more narrow. Probably half of those “spreads” are mere fluctuation.

In another thread, I think I said that one SD of range (errors and range actually) and in arm is about 5-7 runs per season and 2 runs per season respectively, which, if we use 3 SD to represent all players, is around 18 and 6. 30 and 10, which the graph seems to show, is way too high, as you would expect if you are using one year totals.

One thing to add. We know that these distributions are not normal and symmetrical since major league talent represents the far end of a normal distribution (however, if you incorporate playing time and selection, you actually end up with something close to a normal distribution). Therefore you would expect to see more talent at the negative end, at least in terms of the number of players (again, if you multiply the number of players by playing time, the distribution gets more symmetrical) .

By: Guy

Guy — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 02:23:06 +0000

Nice presentation of the data. One quibble: wouldn’t it be more accurate to say “This graph represents the spread in PERFORMANCE among major league outfielders for 2008 for three different metrics?” The spread in talent is more narrow, and converting this to talent will narrow defensive talent much more than offensive talent. You say there aren’t many +30 offense OFs — true — but I suspect there are zero +30 defenders.

Good field/no hit OFs may be slightly undervalued today, but I think it’s only on the margins, not a major market failure.

By: Nathan

Nathan — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 02:14:36 +0000

I second that.

By: Justin

Justin — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 20:18:18 +0000

Also, how much would it matter depending on the three OF spots?? Is it more imp. to have a good arm in which part of the field? Or does it matter in the slightest?

By: razor

razor — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 20:00:07 +0000

Love the analysis…Anyway to see this broken down by position (LF, CF, RF)???

By: obsessivegiantscompulsive

obsessivegiantscompulsive — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:21:21 +0000

Great graph, great analysis!

I would be interested in seeing an x-y axis plot graph where offense is on the x-axis and the sum of the defense is on the y-axis and we can see how many players are in the various groupings of good-good, bad-bad and in-between.

Baseball Analysts has such a graph on pitchers in a recent post, it would be good to see if how things break out for the outfielders with your stats and see how the groupings work out.

By: Erich

Erich — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 17:36:26 +0000

Graphing and establishing context. I love it!
Thanks!

By: Excalabur

Excalabur — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 17:22:59 +0000

Can you add total runs to the graph? It’d be nice to see if outlier status for offence is usually mitigated or exacerbated by defensive contributions at a glance.