Taking the Next Step: Peter Bourjos
Last week my colleague Bryan Smith got an interesting conversation started in a post he titled The Next Step. In a nutshell, his question was “what does sabermetric prospect analysis look like?” That question got a lot of good dialogue going, and I’m sure it’s something you might be seeing more of here at FanGraphs in the coming days and months.
Today I’m just going to approach it in the most back-of-a-napkin method as possible with a prospect who I feel is a tad undersold, and that’s Peter Bourjos, a center fielder in the Angels’ system. If you listened to the corresponding podcast we did about taking the next step in prospect analysis, you know that Peter Bourjos gets me all tingly for some reason. I think it’s probably because I’m the sort of person who likes to see players who fly a bit under the radar succeed, and I like players who I suppose you can call throwback types who may not hit for power, but can run and play good defense.
First, I dug up my trusty 2010 Baseball America Handbook, the 2010 Minor League Analyst and then surfed the web for different scouting reports. I even looked at some video on YouTube. (Remember, this is nothing really scientific). From there I got enough info for me to put together this scouting report, based on the 20-80 scale.
Categories Grades Hitting 55 Power 30 Discipline 40? Speed 70 Field 70
A quick rundown on each tool: Bourjos has some holes in his swing, but should make enough contact to hit about .275-.280 per season. He has gap power, but is very unlikely to crack more than 10 homers in a season. His selectivity at the plate improved, as shown by a 9.7% BB%, a rise of 6.2% from the season earlier. I put a question mark next to the grade because I don’t feel confident that he won’t walk more than 7% in the majors.
Bourjos’ speed and defense is his claim to fame, as I mentioned before. He steals a lot of bases in an organization that encourages being aggressive on the basepaths. He could improve upon his success rate, however. His speed helps him to range almost effortlessly to balls that most outfielders would have to dive for. According to his Total Zone numbers found on MinorLeagueSplits.com, Bourjos has been worth 76 runs in just 363 games in the minors. That’s pretty freaking fantastic. CHONE projects he’d be good for 14 runs above average on defense now.
Putting this all together and assuming all goes well…
600 plate appearances, 42 walks, 117 singles, 26 doubles, 7 triples, 5 homers, 30 steals, 10 caught stealing = .318 wOBA.
- Batting wins above average (.318 wOBA, league .335): -9 runs
- Defensive wins above average: +14 runs
- CF Positional Adjustment: +2.5 runs
- Replacement: +20 runs
Total: 2.8 WAR.
That to me would represent pretty close to a perfect world scenario of what Bourjos becomes while under team control. I think Angel fans would gladly take that. Well, they would if Bourjos had a place to play, as center field is currently occupied by Torii Hunter. His downside would be something like a right-handed version of Endy Chavez. How is that for hedging my bets? There’s no shame in that considering Chavez has been worth about a win per year coming off the bench.
Anyway, this is HIGHLY subjective and I know opinions on prospects can greatly differ, so don’t stone me if you think I’m being too optimistic or pessimistic. This is just meant as more of a fun, quick-and-dirty way that you can use to get a glimpse of a prospect’s potential in terms of wins above replacement from information you can glean from their scouting reports.
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Bourjos really improved drastically last season. Before last year I thought he would be nothing more than a bench player at best but this year I ended up ranking him 7th among all CF prospects, I think Angels fans are allowed to get excited about him now…. http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-top-prospects-pt-7-center-fielders.html
I got to watch him play all year, it was really cool. I think he’s got a shot at that ceiling, he’d go through these stretches were while he wasn’t necessarily taking more pitches, but he was jumping on his pitch. Keep in mind too, that while he’s no means a power guy, Dickey Stevens Stadium is death on power in all its forms. His MLB park might not be much better, but I’d still be suprised if his slg didn’t rise a tick or too as I think the park masked an increase in power (from minimal to not embarrassing).
I haven’t seen him, but it does seem likely that Bourjos would be a significantly above-average baserunner which would be worth something in the WAR calculation. What about his arm?
Bourjos took a big step forward in plate control last year. He really needs to take another step forward at age 23. It’s possible. Brett Butler had a similar skill profile and was in the low minors at age 22.
I hadn’t thought of the Brett Butler comparison. I don’t know if Bourjous can chuck a baseball like Butler did in his early career (His popgun reputation came later in his career. He had 19 assists one season, and that says something about his arm back then), but the skill set seems right on. The thing to remember about Butler is that he came into the pros with an amazing eye. Want to know what won him a jump from high A to AAA/MLB in a single year? Try a .513 (!) OBP in 46 games in high A (and a “paltry” .445 OBP in A ball over 76 games). I do think Bourjous has more power potential, but it isn’t enough to suggest he can have a career like Butler. Indeed, I think Reggie Willits is a better comparison to Butler, and he only got a shot one year.
His speed alone should increase that average potential of .275-.280 to .290-.300.
Let’s see how he does this year, though. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, if he plateaus at this level and ends up as a 4th outfielder or if he continues to improve and ends up as the leadoff man of the 2012 Angels.
I think a lot of these projections don’t necessarily take into account the growth of a player. Last season was the first in which the Angels as an organization stressed patience at the plate. This was reinforced at the top level by the signing of Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui and the loss of free swingers like Vlad Guerrero.
I believe Bourjos’ walk rate will improve, as will his OBP and his SB. He will be in AAA this year and I can’t imagine Bourjos starting in the Angels OF for another 2 years, until Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera’s contracts end and Hunter would have one year left. So this will give him two full seasons to develop in AAA.
Ultimately, I believe Bourjos will be a .280 BA 30 DB 7 TR 10 HR 40 SB .340 OBP type of player once he has finished developing. Anyone who has seen this kid play knows only a couple things for sure though. The first, he can FLY, the second, he’s really good in CF.
I think you’re overrating his “average.”
“Average” is not just “average.” “Average” is a component of strike outs, home runs, and BABIP.
You really need to do strike outs and BABIP when doing this kind of exercise.
If we assume he strikes out 20% of his PA (17% in his MILB career and this certainly goes up from the jump), that gives him 120 strike outs in 600 PA. That gives him a whopping .346 BABIP in your line. For the record, his MILB park and league adjusted BABIP is .319 in his career (not including short season leagues). His highest is .328.
If we assume a more likely .310 BABIP, your proposed wOBA of .312 (I don’t include SB in wOBA but rather a separate “base running” identity, basing it just off his SB gives +2 runs from linear weights but I think doing a projected EqBRR type deal would be better) drops all the way down to .289, -24 runs. Then taking on that +2 from SB, we got -22 runs. So a -13 run difference. That lowers your projected WAR of 2.8 to just 1.5. For the record, this would drop his average from .278 to .249
I do think you’re underselling his power though. He has a career rate of 9.1 per 600 PA and .ISO of .145 (both park/league adjusted). If we give him 9 home runs, 25 doubles, and 10 triples in 600 PA, that gives us a .128 ISO and raises his .wOBA to .299. That’s now -16 runs, include SB for -14 runs, and we now get a +2.2 WAR.
So I agree he is underrated. You will see this is very common when doing WAR projections for players with very good defense, as well as 2b’s and 3b’s (and especially for 2b’s and 3b’s who play very good defense, i.e. Matt Dominguez).
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