Teixeira Trade
Well, that was nice - I laid out four scenarios this morning for the relative value of adding Mark Teixeira, and the Angels go and make a deal that makes the entire post irrelevant a few hours later, trading him for Casey Kotchman and Steven Marek.
So, now that we know the particulars of the deal, I figured I’ll look at it from a slightly different angle. The wins added for the rest of the year is pretty much the same with Kotchman being replaced instead of Rivera, and in reality, those extra runs don’t matter, because the Angels have already made the playoffs. Maybe not officially, but they have a double digit lead on the rest of their division, and Texas is the only other AL West team that isn’t selling off players. The Angels are winning their division with Kotchman, Teixeira, or Carrot Top playing first base. In terms of playoff odds, this trade doesn’t matter.
Instead, the Angels made this trade to try to do better in the playoffs. So, let’s take a look at how much better they’ll be on a per-game basis in October with Teixeira playing first base instead of Casey Kotchman. For this, I turned to Baseball Musing’s Line-Up Analysis Tool, plugging in the Marcel projection for Teixeira in place of Kotchman (and in turn, movie Kendrick up to #2 in the order).
With Teixeira, the Angels offense projects out to 5.023 runs per game.
With Kotchman, the Angels offense projects out to 4.828 runs per game.
Teixeira makes the Angels better, though just like this morning, the moral of the story is that one player simply doesn’t make as big a difference as is commonly believed. Punching the new runs scored/allowed numbers into the pythagorean formula, the Angels with Teixeira are a .591 club and with Kotchman they’re a .569 club. In reality, they’re not quite as good as either of those numbers, as we’ve held their run prevention static, while they’re over-performing by a decent amount in that area.
So, in reality, it’s probably more like they’re a .570 club with Teixeira and a .550 club with Kotchman. They move from good to very good, but overall, it doesn’t move their odds of winning the world series by more than a few points.
In the end, this is the kind of move that the Angels felt they had to make in order to show their fans and the players on the field that they were serious about going for it. As a P.R. move, it will work wonders. As a trade to dramatically improve the teams’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the world series, it’s really a very small step.
Old Man Duggan said,
July 29, 2008 @ 9:48 pm
I don’t know that Carrot Top at first would be a bad thing. I don’t know how he handles the leather, but he’s scary strong. Weirdly so.
DCFan said,
July 30, 2008 @ 12:30 am
Dave - I have to disagree with you a bit on this. Just looking at plain stats does not do justice to this trade.
I think:
1) Teixeira will have the same kind of impact as Carlos Beltran had to the Astros during their postseason run after they traded for him from the Royals
2) If (and thats a big IF) Angels succeed in signing him to an extension, the AL West is theirs for the next 5 years. Hands down. They already signed Tori Hunter in the offseaon to protect Vlad in the lineup - and now with Teixeira also, that lineup is loaded. With their good pitching, bullpen and a loaded farm system, I dont think there is a chance for anyone else in the AL West.
This is one heck of a trade for the Angles, especially if they are able to get Teixeira to sign an extension (I think they will, fingers crossed)
Dave Cameron said,
July 30, 2008 @ 12:58 am
The Beltran comparison doesn’t really work for me. The Astros acquired him on June 24th of ‘04, and he played 90 games for them the rest of the way, replacing the enemic Richard Hidalgo (who was hitting .256/.309/.412). By allowing them to move Biggio to left and replace a huge hole in the line-up for more than half the season, Beltran provided a 25 to 30 run upgrade for Houston that year, surging them into an improbable playoff run.
Teixeira provides about a 10 run upgrade over Kotchman over the rest of the year, and those 10 runs don’t mean anything to the Angels. They were already in the playoffs. The regular season difference between the two is moot.
So, the Angels really gave up 3 years of having Casey Kotchman under club control for the sole purpose of having Teixeira instead of Kotchman in October, when the games matter to them again. But no matter how hard you want to try to make it true, one player simply doesn’t make that big of a difference over any 19 game stretch, especially when he’s replacing someone that’s already good in their own right.
The Angels didn’t fill a hole. They made an incremental improvement from average to good, and it will probably net them a run or two in the playoffs. But this isn’t some huge improvement - the Angels aren’t that much better than they were yesterday. They’d have gotten a similar improvement from acquiring an average left fielder to replace Garret Anderson, but no one would be cheering them on for acquiring an average left fielder.
As for the division being theirs for the next five years, that’s just hyperbole. Vlad is headed into his decline, and Hunter’s not far behind. Even with Teixeira, the offense is still just average, and while the pitching is solid, the LA core would still be extremely vulnerable to both Oakland and Texas.
I’m not saying this is a horrible trade for the Angels. If they re-sign Teixeira to a not-ridiculous deal, it helps, and if they don’t, they get draft picks. I’m just saying that this deal didn’t make the Angels that much better, and for all the hype that they’re going to get for making “the big move”, we should realize that their odds of winning it all are barely better with Teixeira than they were with Kotchman.
Bill B. said,
July 30, 2008 @ 1:03 am
DCFan, I don’t think there’s any basis for your claim in #1. I think it’s disingenuous to just hand them the division for the next five years based on one player. If you were just talking about 2009, that’s fine, but otherwise, you’re completely ignoring the genius of Beane and the progression of the Rangers. If the Rangers could ever get some pitching in their hitter-friendly ballpark, they’d be tough customers.
Don’t forget, Vladimir Guerrero is only signed through the end of this season with a club option for 2009 worth $14.5 million. Can the Angels juggle that AND sign Teixeira to an extension? I’d be surprised.
Torii Hunter costs $17.5 million next season and gets progressively more expensive (10:$18M, 11:$18M, 12:$18M).
Gary Matthews Jr. costs $10M next season (10:$11M, 11:$12M).
Garrett Anderson has a club option for ‘09 worth $14 million.
John Lackey has a club option for ‘09 worth $9 million.
Kelvim Escobar earns $9.5 million next season.
Francisco Rodriguez and Jon Garland are free agents after the season.
The team you see right now is A) expensive in 2009 and B) will not look anything like it will in 2010. The Angels are a well-run organization but I find it hard to believe that they will sign Teixeira to an extension considering their expenses in 2009 and beyond. And there’s no way they’re AL West favorites five years from now. They could be, but it’s disingenuous to call it now.
Donovan said,
July 30, 2008 @ 1:24 am
Dave,
Thought provoking as always. I’ve often seen trade analysis based on how it improves a team’s chances of making it to the post-season, but to evaluate a trade on how it likely helps the team once it’s in the post-season is new to me.
At first glance, I would guess that a team would go much further toward improving its post-season performance by acquiring a top-flight starter, rather than a top-flight bat. Simply put, acquiring a #1 playoff starter to displace your team’s #3 (or #4) starter would do wonders for one’s playoff performance, one would think.
Any chance you could, for comparison’s sake, evaluate how the Sabathia or Harden acquisition would improve the Brewers or Cubs’ chances in the playoffs? It’d be interesting to compare to the Teixeira acquisition.
Cheers,
Donovan
Jeremy Wilson said,
July 30, 2008 @ 1:53 am
IMO, terrible trade for the Angels, with Boras as his agent and the yanks needing a 1st baseman, this is a terrible trade. He will demand a mint, also Kotchman had 3 more, cheap years for the Angels. The Braves are doing back flips. Furthermore, the Mets and Yanks are gonna drive his price sky high, dumb trade Halos, but if they win it all, its all good, but dont see it. Tex is gonna be in NY, either way
Simmy said,
July 30, 2008 @ 10:01 am
I love this trade for the Braves. Kotchman is young (25 for the rest of the year) and improving with above average production the past 2 years, even factoring in that he’s a first baseman. He is also a very good defensive player (like Teixeira) and he won’t be a FA until after the 2011 season if I am correct.
Honestly I started reading this site a couple of weeks ago and its little articles like this that keep me coming back. All of you guys do a tremendous job and I couldn’t agree more with the consensus that while this trade improves the Angels incrementally in 2008, it puts them at a major disadvantage for 2009 (unless it somehow increases their chances of landing Teixeira as a FA to have him on the team now). I am a Yankee fan and I would be shocked if Cashman didn’t heavily pursue Teixeira, the leader of next year’s class, to a major long term deal considering all of the money that is coming off of the Yankees books (Giambi, Abreu, probably one of Mussina or Pettitte, etc).
Of course if they win it all this year it (like any other move) is totally justifiable.
Simmy said,
July 30, 2008 @ 10:04 am
Their offense was bad enough this year pre-Teixeira as it is. Can you imagine next year if they don’t sign Teixeira, and are Kotchmanless? Instead of Kotchman’s plus production at ~$2 million they will have to suffer with an offense inferior to pre-Teix 2008, or overspend for a declining guy like Giambi or Delgado (which might not be a bad thing for a 1 year deal then grab some draft picks).
Larry said,
July 30, 2008 @ 2:31 pm
probably another marginal difference, but what value is there in ensuring/improving by enough wins to have home field througout the playoffs?
Scappy said,
July 30, 2008 @ 3:55 pm
The angels are currently the best in baseball and the best road team in baseball as well. The Yankees are the only other team in the AL with a road winning percentage over 500. I don’t think home field advantage is much of a concern for the ALCS.