Teixeira’s Value
Yesterday, the Braves decided to throw in the towel for 2008, officially putting Mark Teixeira on the trade block in an effort to recoup some of the prospects they gave up to get him a year ago. Teixeira’s a fine player, and would immediately improve any team he’s on, but there isn’t an obvious fit among the teams rumored to be interested. Using Sal Baxamusa’s Quick-N-Dirty Marcel tool and converting the difference to linear weights win values, we can estimate just how much of an impact Teixeira would have on each of the four teams rumored to be in the hunt.
Marcel thinks Teixeira is good for a .289/.382/.524 mark in 248 PA’s the rest of the way, which translates to about nine runs above a replacement level first baseman. His Fielding Bible +/- has him at +12 plays made so far this year, so we’d estimate him at about +5 the rest of the year if that was his true talent level. +5 plays at first base is close to 4 runs, so overall, our projection for Teixeira’s value the rest of the year is about +13 runs, or 1.3 wins, above a replacement level player.
Arizona Diamondbacks – replacing Chad Tracy
Marcel thinks Tracy will hit .284/.348/.472 the rest of the way, and he’s average defensively at first base, which makes him +5 runs over replacement. Teixeira would be an improvement of about 8 runs, or a little bit less than one win.
Boston Red Sox – replacing I Have No Idea
With David Ortiz at DH, Kevin Youkilis at first base, and Mike Lowell at third base, the Teixeira-to-Boston rumors don’t make any sense. No matter which of those three we replaced with Teixeira, the projected difference the rest of the year is a run or two at most. Boston’s not dumb enough to give up a lot of talent for no reason.
Tampa Bay Rays – replacing Cliff Floyd
This would be a little more complicated, as we have to assume Teixeira would play first base, Carlos Pena would move to DH, and Floyd would move into a platoon with Eric Hinske in RF. So, it’s not an even swap, but we can estimate the improvement as the upgrade over Floyd’s bat (sorta) and Pena’s glove. Marcel has Floyd at .257/.339/.430 the rest of the year, and when combined with the minor improvement in defense (Pena’s a good 1B too), the upgrade for Tampa would be about ten runs.
Los Angeles Angels – replacing Juan Rivera
Again, it’s not quite this simple. Rivera would likely still play some, taking time from Garret Anderson and Casey Kotchman, but this is just an estimate, and the results will still be similar, so we’re just going to swap Teixeira into Rivera’s spot. Marcel likes Rivera, thinking he’s good for a .278/.334/.461 mark the rest of the way, and since Kotchman is a good defensive 1B as well, the defensive upgrade is minimal. All told, Teixeira would add about nine runs to the Angels total.
Boston gets eliminated from the race for a lack of an upgrade, and overall, the other three teams would all seemingly benefit about the same amount. The problem, though, is that amount just isn’t that large. Yes, one win may be the difference between a playoff spot and sitting at home in October, so if the price isn’t exorbitant, it should be considered, but these teams don’t have gaping wounds at first base, and the upgrade T-Rex provided wouldn’t be as large as you might think, given his abilities.
It’s not worth mortgaging the farm for. Perhaps there’s a deal out there that makes sense for both Atlanta and a potential buyer, but there’s not a team that Teixeira is goiing to be the difference maker for.
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Does Marcel take into account the fact that Teixeira always hits better in the second half? Tex is a career .296/.382/.566 hitter post-All-Star Break. The Marcel projections seem a little low, although I don’t know that the difference would translate to much of a difference in WARP.
The idea I’ve seen pushed for Boston is to acquire Teixeira and somehow unload Manny Ramirez, then shift Youkilis to LF (He’s played there before). I think Boston would also insist on a 72-hour window to sign Teixeira to a long-term contract. But I don’t believe that will happen; I think Teixeira will end up in Arizona.
I think part of the 2nd-half boost that Teix gets is due to having been in Texas. When it gets hotter, the air gets thinner and balls travel farther. Of course this happens everywhere, but it always seemed hotter in Arlington so that would lead me to believe the effect is a little greater there.
Bart, the Marcel in-season projections do not factor in any type of split-halves results. They use the true talent level of the player to estimate what he should do over a given remainder. So, based on Teixeira’s (no idea if that’s spelled correctly.. between him and Franceour they have a hard-to-spell team) numbers from 2005-2007 as well as his numbers up to the point Dave wrote this article, from here on out he is expected to produce the numbers in this post.
Tex is one of the most overrated players in all of baseball. He’s what I call a regular October golfer. I can’t wait to see what foolish GM signs him to a ridiculous contract this offseason. His real market value is about 11-12M a year on a non-contending team.
Bart – Its funny that you mention that scenario because I thought that my Cardinals would fit that three way trade scenario…
Cards get:
ManRam
Jed Lowrie
Red Sox get:
Tex
Bryan Anderson (Cards 21yr old C at AAA)
Braves get:
Justin Masterston (from Sox)
Jon Jay
Mitchell Boggs
Shane Robinson
Daryl Jones
Nick, that’s not even vaguely fair. Manny and Tex are both free agents after the season, and I would say their expected production aren’t that different from each other.
So basically, that means the Sox give up a terrific young arm in Masterson and a very promising middle infielder in Lowrie, both of whom are helping their major league team right now (both would have been included in the Johan Santana deal if it had gone through), and they get… a AAA catcher? So they thin their bullpen for this year and their rotation for 5 years more, plus trade their SS/3B of the future (and play Alex Cora full-time, apparently), in exchange for someone who MIGHT help the club next year?
Dave, this is the second time in a couple weeks you and I have had the same idea. The other one was your article on K-Rod, only that time I hadn’t posted my article yet.
Great minds think alike, I guess.
Good rundown, I see the D-Backs as the only ones seriously contending for Tex. I think the Dodgers are content with Loney and the Rays aren’t going to want to part with a couple top prospects and add more than $4 million to their payroll.
Mike, Teixeira utterly destroyed the ball last season after he was traded to Atlanta (317/.404/.615, 17 HR in 208 AB)
Eric, I had the same problem with Tex for a long time. But he was on my fantasy team the whole season last year, and that much exposure to his name pretty much forces you to learn how to spell it!
I just don’t think Tex’s splits can be ignored. The Marcel numbers aren’t far off from his overall career numbers, which suggests average expectations based on a full season. But it can’t be denied that Tex is consistently better in the second half (a career .071 points higher OPS, same number of HR in 350 fewer AB after the AS break).
That something has been true in the past does not mean that it will be true in the future. It is accurate to say that Teixeira has a history of strong second halves – it is not accurate to follow that with a conclusion that he is likely to continue this trend.
There is very little evidence that suggests that kind of trend analysis has any real predictive power. Likely, it’s a statistical outlier, and without reason to think otherwise, we’re best served by evaluating his true talent levels, and not by attempting to project his future performances based on that kind of outlier performance.
Bart – I figured the Sox would re-up Texeira after this year. Secondly, Lowrie is helping you now but he is ultimately blocked by Pedroai (sp?) and Lugo’s awful contract. Maybe throwing in Masterson is a bit much. Another way to even out the deal would be to have the Braves throw in Mike Gonzalez to help the Sox pen.
I was kind of spitballing ways to make the deal work. Ultimately it comes down to Tex replacing Manny’s production for the Sox and the Braves getting young players (and the Sox getting somone to replace the ghost of Jason Varitek). What the specific players would be would have to be determined by what Atlanta wants in the way of young players.
Dave, I understand about evaluating talent levels, but your argument about what’s true in the past not meaning it will be true in the future could just as easily be applied to yearly statistics, or career numbers (i.e., just because a player hits .300 or .OBP’s .400 for a few seasons doesn’t automatically mean they will again). With statistics, aren’t we just looking at trends to determine skill levels and try to predict future production? I don’t see how Teixeira’s trend of stronger second halves is less valid than his trend of .900-OPS seasons. He’s done it every year of his career.
Bart,
There’s a huge difference – projections based on full year statistical evidence (such as what I did with the Marcels in the post above) have proven to have real predictive power. There’s a mountain of evidence out there that show just how well these projections do historically.
There is no such evidence for the claim that split data, like you’re referring to with Teixeira’s second half, has anything close to similar predictive powers.
It’s the difference between correlation and causation. You’re correctly identifying a correlation between Teixeira’s past performance and the months in which they occur. However, it is not correct to then take the correlation as a cause of the production and project future performance from that.
Mark Teixeira’s career numbers, and in turn the projections presented above, are based on causal evidence – he’s a good hitter. His second half performances are not based on anything causal – there’s no reason to believe that he picks up an additional hitting skill every July that he didn’t have in April-June.
Nick, Lowrie is only blocked at 2B if the Sox decide to move him there: they’ve talked about him being a strong 3B candidate too. He could easily play SS for 2 more years and then replace Lowell at 3B. And honestly, I think the Sox are smart enough to play the better player instead of the more expensive one, so I don’t see Lugo as blocking Lowrie.
If the Sox could get a window to sign Teixeira long-term, of course that changes everything. If they could simultaneously lock him up and shed Manny then I think it would be great. But I really don’t see it happening. (Also, in your scenario the Braves only gave up 2+ months of Tex but got a plethora of young talent – kind of strongly skewed in their favor. There would have to be some serious shifting to make it fair all around.)
Bart – I understand what you are saying about the Sox playing the better player but Lugo’s contract makes him unmovable meaning they have two choices with him…play him or DFA him. Neither are very attractive options but they made their bed… You are right that the Braves would be getting some serious young talent. I may have overestimated the value of Teixeira at this late stage.
As far as the negotiating window goes…why does it matter. ManRam is basically gone after this year anyway. Tex replaces his production and puts the Sox in essentially the same contract position. Yes ManRam has 2 20mil options but the likelihood of the Sox picking up those options is IMHO very small.
I don’t know how the actual trade would happen, but if the Red Sox get Teixeira and lose Manny, Youkilis would play left field. Maybe you can adjust your analysis, since that seems to be the consensus on how a trade would happen.
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