Comments on: The 13th Man Out

By: RedSox2004

RedSox2004 — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 09:58:54 +0000

Another aspect to consider is the broader roster strategy of the club. If you believe that the 25th spot is largely fungible whether it goes to a pitcher or a bench player, then one should also consider whether there are players out of options, Rule 5 draftees, etc. If there’s a player like that who the team likes but must put on the 25 man roster or risk losing from the organization, then it makes sense to stick that player in the 25th spot, regardless of whether it’s a pitcher or bench player.

By: Joe

Joe — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 20:53:48 +0000

I understand your reasoning, but the MLBPA would never allow something like that.

By: CaR

CaR — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 04:31:58 +0000

I believe that the revolving door method suggested in order to maximize position player availability would not work as a practical matter. First, I think that the general psyche of the players involved would have to be considered. The reality of working in the show as compared with AAA is an important factor. Important enough, I feel, so as not to be brushed aside as statistically irrelevant . Second, and related, is the notion that the relative production of AAA fodder is as good as MLB talent to justify the move to begin with. Bullpen arms are the easiest resource to reproduce, I understand that. But if one is willing to take the step down in production that would be required in order to justify the strategy, I suppose that there had better be a tangible (not theoretical) difference shown by the bench player who would take the 12th pitchers’ spot.

By: Kincaid

Kincaid — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 21:11:52 +0000

Starting pitchers are not the only pitchers removed for pinch hitters, though. Relievers almost always get pulled when their spot in the lineup is due up, regardless of whether the manager would prefer they keep pitching. Over the past 5 years, the average NL team has made 3.0 pitching changes per game. The average AL team has made 2.7. The difference of about .26 pitching changes per game works out to about 43 extra relief appearances per season per team in the NL. That’s easily a full season’s worth of appearances for a 12th pitcher, so it’s a significant difference. Essentially, teams in the AL are getting away with using the equivalent of one low-end reliever fewer on average than NL teams.

By: Brett

Brett — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 20:42:49 +0000

I’m not a big number cruncher (though I love to sit back and watch others do the dirty work), but I’d love to see a breakdown of average non-closer relief pitcher win values and the average breakdown of win values for non-starting bench players. Corrected forwhatever additional noise might be appropriate, of course.

By: Eric

Eric — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 20:20:41 +0000

As far as how long the pitcher can generally go-

Turns out it is VERY close [2000-2004 data], DH vs no DH.

Is that really true?

2000-2004:
Starters in DH games went 66915.7 innings in 11330. Average =5.91
Starters in non-DH games went 76426.7 innings in 12954 games. Average =5.90

The gap of .00621 IP/GS amounts to one total extra inning per 161 games. I think it is a safe to call it about even.

While not having to hit, they also don’t get to face the opposing pitcher [or the generally below average PHers], they face generally above average DHs.

By: Fresh Hops

Fresh Hops — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 19:25:40 +0000

It’s all well and good to tell a manager that they should try to keep the game fun to watch, but the manager is never going to face the heat for taking too long. They will face the heat for losing.

The big issue, of course, is that this is wasted usage. If you leave that pitcher in for three outs, that’s one fresh pitcher for your next game that you don’t have because you pitched two guys in that inning.

By: Fresh Hops

Fresh Hops — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 19:20:11 +0000

I think you’re overlooking platoons and defensive substitutions.

By: sen-baldacci

sen-baldacci — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:18:22 +0000

There is a great argument for the extra bat in the NL. I would pinch hit for the pitcher almost every time possible, and you can upgrade your defense somewhere for the last few innings or have a pinch runner to help score the late game-tying run or go-ahead.

But in the AL it makes no sense. Ok, there are some teams with guys that are so poor they can’t do enough right and you need to platoon with them, and pinch run for them and get their poor defense out, but most decent teams aren’t in that situation. If you keep the extra bat to get the lefty righty matchup, they can just change the pitcher to offset it, because they are keeping the extra arm in the bullpen. It comes down to one main thing for me. The extra batter can only be used when one of your poorest hitters is up in the right situation towards the end of a game. The extra pitcher can come in at any time in the last few innings to give yourself a better matchup at an important point in the game. The flexibility of using the pitcher to maximize his usefulness outweighs any other skill sets a single end of the bench player can bring (defense). There are obvious exceptions and those are determined by the players you have available. If you have blazing speed sitting on your AAA team, I’d consider teaching him to bunt and bringing him to the big squad. Speed on the bases can always be substituted in key situations….Dave Roberts anyone?

By: Paul Scott

Paul Scott — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:27:35 +0000

I think the three biggest areas of improvement for a ball club are, in order:

1. Platooning (the failure to do it enough)
2. Relief Pitcher Usage (the “closer” issue)
3. Quality of rotation (4 man rotations improve the overall quality of innings pitched)

The 12 pitcher slots going to 11 would allow more platooning, so it would be a good thing if the two could go hand-in-hand (and going to 2 catchers would improve that one further). I don’t see much of an advantage just to have a PH available. That, it seems to me, is working at the same goal and the question just becomes “would you rather have the handedness advantage to prevent scoring or to create scoring?”

Outside of platooning more, the 25th slot being assigned to a pitcher or batter it seems to me should be controlled with an eye to protecting prospects. A look at the Dodgers, for example, sees a strong possibility of having to release Delwyn Young to satisfy Torre’s “need” for 12 pitchers. To me, the obvious solution to the Dodgers situation is to go with 11 pitchers and give the 25th spot to Young. Other years and other teams, that same analysis could tell you to give the 25th spot to a pitcher. Either way, being flexible on this point AND going to two catchers means being able to protect prospects for a longer time. That is more likely to lead to a real payoff than other considerations.