Comments on: The 2010 Fan Projections!

By: Pete

Pete — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:12:33 +0000

Great work all around everyone, not just useful but entertaining and engaging interface.

Mr. Tangotiger, this might not be the appropriate fourm and it’s obvious you spent a lot of time contributing to this tool — but any chance you could let us know when the 2010 MARCEL projections might be out? I believe 2009′s came out on November 9th last year.

Fan projections more than suffice in the meantime though. Great stuff.

By: jmr

jmr — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:56:51 +0000

Any chance that our personal 2010 projection can be included with the 2007-2009 stats on the projection page, not just the My Rankings page? The instant feedback will make for better projections.

By: Mowses

Mowses — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:03:10 +0000

Seriously, nobody can answer this?

By: Jesus

Jesus — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:12:24 +0000

Eh, just ran into a bit of a problem with Adam Dunn. his UZR cannot be projected to be any worse than -20, but it’s almost a certainty that it will be well below that. I know numbers like that are uncommon enough to be considered outliers, but in a case like Dunn, where he is putting up that insanely bad number so consistenly, that option should be made available to get an accurate fan projection.

By: tangotiger

tangotiger — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:22:41 +0000

Don’t worry about the buckets being too big. It simply won’t happen that there’s going to be so many people wondering “should I mark it at 149 or 150 G” that they will bias it toward one side too much.

Indeed, the buckets are identical to what I ran on my site last year:
http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/index5.php

In practical purposes, you are not going to see what you think might happen. It doesn’t happen.

And the drawback behind having too small buckets is that you are making the dropdown list pretty long, and now you are asking for precision, when all you really need is a quick answer. This is the point: you can ask someone to spend 30 seconds to forecast a player or you can ask him to spend 90 seconds, and those extra 60 seconds, while valuable if all you have is one forecaster goes out the window as wasted effort because once you have 20 or 30 fans, those extra 60 seconds each person is going to spend will be useless.

HOWEVER, if you really really really (has to be three reallys, not two or one) think this is an issue, you find me a “boundary player”, and maybe we can set up a test case and have people re-evaluate him, and see if we get anything that’s really different.

By: Mowses

Mowses — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 10:03:55 +0000

Ok I have a question: After I submitted my projection, which projections am I seeing under “My Rankings”? Is it just my projections or the generell fan projections for these players?

By: johnf

johnf — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 09:23:03 +0000

Just curious as to how WHIP is calculated in the projections since there’s no H/9 slot. Great feature, at any rate.

By: Neil

Neil — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:27:31 +0000

Seriously? ‘Optimistic’ on Halladay putting up a 2.75 ERA? When he’s posted 2.78 and 2.79 the last two years and the defense behind him isn’t likely to change much? Or am i missing something?

By: Toffer Peak

Toffer Peak — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:44:25 +0000

Whoops, yeah, I meant 1% buckets, mind was somewhere else. I can see not wanting to mess with it now. Hope this gives us some great results. Thanks for all of the work that was put into this.

By: Taylor H

Taylor H — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:31:16 +0000

This is phenomenal. Thank you for doing this.