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	<title>Comments on: The Abreu Impact</title>
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	<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/</link>
	<description>Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary</description>
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		<title>By: Garrett</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-64768</link>
		<dc:creator>Garrett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:55:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-64768</guid>
		<description>Yeah Geez is right based on current data. There&#039;s been a few looks at projection systems, and even the projection creators themselves have readily admitted that minor league predictions are MUCH more complicated and tough than those for reliable big league AB&#039;s.

Not sure what Dave&#039;s talking about. The &quot;I&#039;m right, you&#039;re wrong, period&quot; arguement is one I see too often in the stat community, when people do not understand that there&#039;s more than one way of looking at the numbers and coming up with them. Don&#039;t enjoy seeing it here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah Geez is right based on current data. There&#8217;s been a few looks at projection systems, and even the projection creators themselves have readily admitted that minor league predictions are MUCH more complicated and tough than those for reliable big league AB&#8217;s.</p>
<p>Not sure what Dave&#8217;s talking about. The &#8220;I&#8217;m right, you&#8217;re wrong, period&#8221; arguement is one I see too often in the stat community, when people do not understand that there&#8217;s more than one way of looking at the numbers and coming up with them. Don&#8217;t enjoy seeing it here.</p>
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		<title>By: Jay in BMore</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-64726</link>
		<dc:creator>Jay in BMore</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:57:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-64726</guid>
		<description>Big ups to Gotowarmissagnes (love the name) for posting the link to Tango&#039;s evaluation of the forecasting systems.  Following up on GTWMA&#039;s summary, indeed two clear conclusions emerge: negligible difference in overall accuracy between the forecasting systems (including Marcel, Chone, PECOTA et. al.) and a noticeable difference in accuracy when comparing projections for players with MLB experience vs those without.  Clearly in support of Geez&#039; position on this thread and concordant with what common sense would tell us, i.e. it is more reliable to base a prognostication of future performance on prior MLB performance than MiLB (or college) performance.

Just based on an initial read of this thread, Dave Cameron&#039;s steadfast refusal to accept the common sense reality here had completely undermined his credibility.  Looking at the Tango evaluation only cemented that perspective.  Further, Cameron&#039;s shrill assaults on Geez&#039; requests for supporting data intimate that Cameron either knows no such data exists or has never taken the time to determine if such data exists.  Both of these results are inexcusable and determining which is true would  not only be a an exercise in futility, but would only prove a moot point: Cameron&#039;s posts/articles are only worth reading for entertainment value.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Big ups to Gotowarmissagnes (love the name) for posting the link to Tango&#8217;s evaluation of the forecasting systems.  Following up on GTWMA&#8217;s summary, indeed two clear conclusions emerge: negligible difference in overall accuracy between the forecasting systems (including Marcel, Chone, PECOTA et. al.) and a noticeable difference in accuracy when comparing projections for players with MLB experience vs those without.  Clearly in support of Geez&#8217; position on this thread and concordant with what common sense would tell us, i.e. it is more reliable to base a prognostication of future performance on prior MLB performance than MiLB (or college) performance.</p>
<p>Just based on an initial read of this thread, Dave Cameron&#8217;s steadfast refusal to accept the common sense reality here had completely undermined his credibility.  Looking at the Tango evaluation only cemented that perspective.  Further, Cameron&#8217;s shrill assaults on Geez&#8217; requests for supporting data intimate that Cameron either knows no such data exists or has never taken the time to determine if such data exists.  Both of these results are inexcusable and determining which is true would  not only be a an exercise in futility, but would only prove a moot point: Cameron&#8217;s posts/articles are only worth reading for entertainment value.</p>
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		<title>By: ineedanap</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62946</link>
		<dc:creator>ineedanap</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2009 03:51:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62946</guid>
		<description>All I know is Rivera, Guerrero, Abreu &gt; Anderson, Guerrero, Matthews (especially when Matthews is the DH. 

Plus, is Matthews that much better defensively than Abreu to make up the difference in their offensive production? 

Anyway, I like the signing. It gives the young guys a chance to develop by having two productive veterans in the lineup. Plus the Angels need offensive production more than they need defense at this point. A left side of Figgins (LF), Wood (3B), and Aybar (SS) would be awesome defensively, but with so many young players its important to have some stabiltity on the offensive side of things as not to have to rely on them for production. 

Its not like Wood didn&#039;t get any playing time last year and he was buried under both Izturis and Aybar. With the injuries the Angels always seem to suffer its not a bad idea to have a ton of depth.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All I know is Rivera, Guerrero, Abreu &gt; Anderson, Guerrero, Matthews (especially when Matthews is the DH. </p>
<p>Plus, is Matthews that much better defensively than Abreu to make up the difference in their offensive production? </p>
<p>Anyway, I like the signing. It gives the young guys a chance to develop by having two productive veterans in the lineup. Plus the Angels need offensive production more than they need defense at this point. A left side of Figgins (LF), Wood (3B), and Aybar (SS) would be awesome defensively, but with so many young players its important to have some stabiltity on the offensive side of things as not to have to rely on them for production. </p>
<p>Its not like Wood didn&#8217;t get any playing time last year and he was buried under both Izturis and Aybar. With the injuries the Angels always seem to suffer its not a bad idea to have a ton of depth.</p>
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		<title>By: rdj3video</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62678</link>
		<dc:creator>rdj3video</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Feb 2009 00:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62678</guid>
		<description>I like the breakdown, but I&#039;ve got to believe those 75 PA for Wood at DH and some of Rivera&#039;s DH PAs will end up in the hands of Guerrero and Napoli. Rivera could log a few innings in right for Vlad, if Vlad needs to DH. Wood could win some more PA at 3B if he produces.

If Kendry Morales isn&#039;t able to hold down 1st base, I would hate the thought of the Angels even thinking about letting Juan Rivera field balls on the right hand side of the diamond. He played 1st for just 2 innings last season for the first time in his career. This scenario is one of those things Rex Hudler conjures up during a broadcast.

It&#039;s unfortunate Gary Matthews performance has reduced him to a very expensive defensive replacement in LF that will give Hunter a day off once every 10 games.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like the breakdown, but I&#8217;ve got to believe those 75 PA for Wood at DH and some of Rivera&#8217;s DH PAs will end up in the hands of Guerrero and Napoli. Rivera could log a few innings in right for Vlad, if Vlad needs to DH. Wood could win some more PA at 3B if he produces.</p>
<p>If Kendry Morales isn&#8217;t able to hold down 1st base, I would hate the thought of the Angels even thinking about letting Juan Rivera field balls on the right hand side of the diamond. He played 1st for just 2 innings last season for the first time in his career. This scenario is one of those things Rex Hudler conjures up during a broadcast.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s unfortunate Gary Matthews performance has reduced him to a very expensive defensive replacement in LF that will give Hunter a day off once every 10 games.</p>
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		<title>By: Yo</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62640</link>
		<dc:creator>Yo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:25:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62640</guid>
		<description>Which means Geez was correct.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which means Geez was correct.</p>
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		<title>By: Gotowarmissagnes</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62614</link>
		<dc:creator>Gotowarmissagnes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 11:00:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62614</guid>
		<description>http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/community_forecast_2007_preliminary_results/#29

Seems to me Tango&#039;s results indicate Chone was:

4-5 OPS points off for long-term major leagues
3-4 OPS points off for major league players with moderate experience
10-13 OPS points for part-timers, bench players and players with 2 or fewer years of experience
And 56 OPS points off for players making their debut.

If I understand the results correctly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/community_forecast_2007_preliminary_results/#29" rel="nofollow">http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/community_forecast_2007_preliminary_results/#29</a></p>
<p>Seems to me Tango&#8217;s results indicate Chone was:</p>
<p>4-5 OPS points off for long-term major leagues<br />
3-4 OPS points off for major league players with moderate experience<br />
10-13 OPS points for part-timers, bench players and players with 2 or fewer years of experience<br />
And 56 OPS points off for players making their debut.</p>
<p>If I understand the results correctly.</p>
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		<title>By: vivaelpujols</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62588</link>
		<dc:creator>vivaelpujols</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 02:25:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62588</guid>
		<description>I was replying to the first post</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was replying to the first post</p>
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		<title>By: vivaelpujols</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62587</link>
		<dc:creator>vivaelpujols</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 02:21:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62587</guid>
		<description>At 5 million for 1 year, it is a good move.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At 5 million for 1 year, it is a good move.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62570</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 00:15:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62570</guid>
		<description>Teixeira switch hits...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Teixeira switch hits&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: TK</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-abreu-impact/#comment-62569</link>
		<dc:creator>TK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 00:04:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2926#comment-62569</guid>
		<description>Not that this changes things a ton, but isn&#039;t there some non-zero chance that Wood sees some time at shortstop this year? I know they made a big show of moving him to 3B but he did play SS down the stretch in the MLB last season.

Maybe that presents all kinds of other issues, like Wood being a defensive downgrade from Aybar...but...I thought it was worth raising.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not that this changes things a ton, but isn&#8217;t there some non-zero chance that Wood sees some time at shortstop this year? I know they made a big show of moving him to 3B but he did play SS down the stretch in the MLB last season.</p>
<p>Maybe that presents all kinds of other issues, like Wood being a defensive downgrade from Aybar&#8230;but&#8230;I thought it was worth raising.</p>
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