The Alcides Escobar Era Begins
On this date a year ago, J.J. Hardy was hitting .275/.336/.462 with 17 home runs. Hardy is hitting .229/.300/.367 with 11 home runs this year, and for the time being, won’t have the opportunity to change his line anytime soon. The Brewers have officially optioned him to Triple-A and promoted their top prospect, shortstop Alcides Escobar, to the major leagues.
Hardy is older, more expensive, and was a season from free agency (more on that from Dave tomorrow), so it was clear that Escobar was the Brewers shortstop heading forward. The estimated time of arrival was up in the air, with Hardy still around and presumably possessing some trade value, but remaining with the team through July and not even being placed on waivers. I don’t know what the league would offer for Hardy, but for a team in desperate need of pitching help, you have to imagine a shortstop averaging a little over 3 WAR per season could bring a starter or two back, right?
Perhaps the Brewers want Hardy to dominate in Triple-A, therefore being able to showcase him as someone who still possesses skills. His ratio of line drives and groundballs hit are down as well, which is contributing to his poor luck on balls in play. Hardy’s strikeouts are up for the second consecutive season, but so are his walks. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him return to form with whatever team lands him this off-season, maybe as this year’s Nick Swisher?
Escobar is a fantastic defender and his bat has caught up with this glove over the last year. His first exposure to Double-A ended with a .296 wOBA, but last year he repeated the level with vengeance, staking a .369 figure. This year he’s hitting well in Triple-A , with a .351 wOBA. He’s an extremely good thief on the path when he gets on, but the most glaring weakness in his game right now is his ability to draw walks, something he’s improved on this year, but could still use some work.
I’m not entirely sure this makes the Brewers a better team this year, nor am I sure any added benefit was worth potentially sinking even more of Hardy’s trade value. Doug Melvin knows more about the second part of that statement than I do, so we’ll see how he handles Hardy in the off-season.
4
I would take back everything bad I’ve said about Bill Smith if he were to bring in Hardy (without getting taken behind the woodshed yet again).
No shit.
Not sure you can call this the “Alcides Escobar era” just yet. As you folks here are likely aware, Ken Macha plays ‘matchups’–sometimes to a fault. See: Gamel, Mat. Also, per his comments today, he will begin by playing Escobar vs. LHP. Presumably to allow Craig Counsell to play against RHP.
I am very intrigued with Escobar. He has similiar (if not better) minor league numbers to Jose Reyes. I see a cross between Miguel Tejada (steroid free version – sorry b12 shot free) and Jose Reyes, but a better defender.
With increased patience combined with his supposed extremely advanced glove he could be a 4.0-5.0 WAR player in a few years.
On the flip side, he might not be able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag. I am predicting imminent failure for him.
True. He might not be a great hitter, but I don’t see why he can’t atleast match Elvis Andrus’ current MLB numbers. He has shown a better bat in his minor league career and is supposed to be one of the most gifted fielders to come around in quite some time.
His platoon splits vs L are fairly solid (like Hanley when he first came up) but he cannot hit righties as well currently.
Escobar has problems with RHP, so a platoon would be a good way to ease him in. He has ~900 OPS against Lefties this year, so should do really well in limited playing time.
I noticed that Hardy’s platoon splits look really ridiculous this year. He’s OPS’ing about 550 against lefties, which is about 400 points lower than his career. It sounds like to me something is really messed up with his swing/approach against LHP this year. Given that he had success in his past though, I think he has a good chance to turn it around in AAA. I don’t think it would hurt his trade value too much either, since there are always teams looking for good defensive shortstops.
He’s leaking like crazy. I had a chance to see him up very close along the first base side a few weeks back at PETCO, and his approach looks very poor. All his weight has been committed to his front foot way too early, which might account for some of the lost BABIP – he’s hitting the ball with less authority when he does make contact.
He also “looks” like it’s affecting him mentally, with apologies for how vague that sounds. He looks like he’s guessing up there, and like he isn’t confident.
I am interested to read Dave’s take on whether this may become an attempt to perserve Hardy’s service time, a la delaying Ryan Braun’s launch in 2007.
Please tell me that he’ll be the starting full time SS next year. He shoots up to top five fantasy value at the position in my mind if he is.
Thank you Nostradamus, do you have this week’s Powerball numbers too?
Escobar a top five fantasy shortstop? He of the MLE .646 OPS at AAA this season?
I’d say he is firmly the Dexter Fowler of SS…
I think this is partly upgrading but also largely arbitration fueled decision. What has more trade value, two years of JJ Hardy or just one? The answer should be simple and that’s why i expect Hardy to be at AAA for 20+ days (puts off FA another year)
It’s perfect time to make some plans for the long run and it’s time to be happy. I’ve learn this submit and if I could I wish to counsel you some interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you could write subsequent articles regarding this article. I desire to learn more issues about it!