The All-Joy Team, Some Notes Toward
I don’t know who this R.J. Anderson character thinks he is, but if he’s under the impression that I’m just gonna sit back and let him destroy FanGraphs all alone, he’s got another thing coming his way. No, if FanGraphs is going to be ruined by a series of highly speculative posts almost entirely devoid of advanced metrics, I’m going to have a say in it. Consider this my riposte, Anderson!
In the event that you didn’t read Anderson’s post yesterday, go for it: it’s a free country and nobody’s stopping you.
In the more likely event that you’re already mesmerized by my prose styling and must keep reading straight through to the end, here’s an outline of Anderson’s article: First, he looks at some Tampa Bay attendance figures and finds that many more fans go to see the Rays play the Yankers and Sox than the Orioles. Then he discusses how we can assume generally that a win is more fun to watch than a loss. He then wonders why, if wins are more fun to see, why Rays’ fans might go to those types of games and not games against, for example, the Orioles.
What Anderson’s post and a number of the more thoughtful comments that follow it bring to light is something that many of us have probably intuited: that the quality of the visiting team matters considerably as we evaluate how best to spend our baseballing dollar. Of course, in some cases — as with the Red Sox-Yankees matchups — the presence of a heated rivalry provides an extant narrative that ensures drama and creates an atmosphere of excitement. In other cases — such as a visit from the Yankees or Red Sox or any perennial contender — the prospect of beating a talented team is the draw.
Commenter Chris addresses this point concisely, admirably:
I go for the highest upside. Seeing a game a team is ’supposed to win’ means that anything less than a win is super disappointing and a win is expected. Seeing your team play the best, even if there is a lower probability of leaving with a win, allows for a much higher euphoria when they do win.
This is why mediocre college basketball teams that host the #1 team in the country get the best attendance – because the win means a rush of the court and great excitement.
In fact, at the very moment that Anderson submitted his article, I was losing some of my money at Portland Meadows — i.e. Portland, Oregon’s finest (and, not so coincidentally, only) venue for live thoroughbred racing. The appeal of horseracing is almost entirely based on the prevalence of victories of the high-upside variety. Consider first that each race is itself composed of seven or eight or more horses, thus creating a situation where even a heavily favored horse must contend with many variables. Moreover, horseracing allows one to make any number of longshot-type bets, such as Superfectas or Pick Fours, where, though the chances of winning are low, the sweetness of victory is, uh, really sweet. Though baseball’s underdog triumphs are less surprising, they at least provide a similar pleasure.
Finally, a number of the commentariat suggested that they are most interested in attending games that will feature specific players — regardless of whether said player belongs to his (i.e. the fan’s) team or not. Certainly, some players are bigger draws than others. In particular, starting pitchers — Felix Hernandez, for example — seem to exert a particularly strong influence over the baseballing imagination.
Of course, as fans, we have almost no control over our own team’s personnel (a fact that is all-too real for residents of the Paris of the Plains). However, by picking and choosing games by opposition roster, we are, in a sense, exercising our somewhat limited powers to construct the ideal team.
I’ve seen — in some of my electronic travels — I’ve seen the term “rosterbation” used to describe the act of re-arranging a team’s roster to reflect a fan’s preferences. I disapprove of this term (i.e. rosterbation) on account of it forces me to think about private parts. As a Christian Gentleman, I spend a great deal of time and effort pretending that private parts do not exist, and such a term makes it difficult for me to persist in my illusion.
That said, I approve highly of the act itself — that is, of dreaming about and re-arranging rosters. But I believe it is best used not merely to address our favorite teams’ rosters, but a sort of platonic roster, composed entirely of ideal players.
To that end, I plan on unveiling soon, in these electronic pages, something that I plan on calling The All-Joy Team. (The Mark Fidrych All-Stars is another possibility — in honor of the all-time single season leader in joy.) While personal taste is obviously inherent to any such enterprise of this description, I believe that most FanGraphs readers will agree on the five criteria that I suggested back when it was warm outside.
A member of the All-Joy Team will probably be:
1. An MLB player whose advanced metrics (i.e. EqA, wOBA, VORP, UZR – really anything that attempts to improve upon AVG, HR, and RBIs) suggest greater production than is commonly perceived.
2. An MLB player whose peripheral numbers (i.e. xFIP, PrOPS, tRA) suggest greater production in near future.
3. Either an MLB part-timer or older (27 and up) minor leaguer whose production suggests probable success in expanded MLB role.
4. A younger (under 27) minor leaguer, but not top prospect, whose minor league numbers suggest success at the MLB level.
5. A player who demonstrates vigorously what Americans, quoting French poorly, call je ne sais quoi.
When will this All-Joy Team appear? Probably Thursday, provided that Anderson doesn’t give me any more reasons to fly off the handle.
Moreover, any nominations will gladly be accepted below, and will be given consideration directly proportional to the civility and enthusiasm with which they are proposed.
[Edit in response to The Boomer's comment: I didn't mention specifically that the players would be composed of current players, but that's what I meant. That said, an All-Time All-Joy Team would also be an interesting project. I'm just not sure I'm smart/old enough to pull it off.]
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Some stats-free suggestions:
Bill Lee
Jim Abbott
Satchel Paige
These all qualify under Category 5, if at all.
If a player has good minor league numbers and does nothing else that would suggest he’d have a hard time succeeding in the majors, he IS a top prospect. Are you referring to prospects you think are underrated by particular people or groups? Or ones you think are generally under-appreciated? Or are you saying it would only be based on minor league numbers, assuming they will easily translate into major league numbers despite other things that suggest they will not. Or are you simply going to list what you consider the top 50-100 prospects (let’s say) ignoring the “top” prospects?
I’m taking “prospect” to mean players whose draft pedigree and relative youth are the most exciting things about them. There are other players — players whose age (Brian Myrow, Daniel Nava) or draft pedigree (Chris Heisey) — has taken off the “prospect” shine, despite the level of said player’s production.
John Kruk would have to be on the all time team…
Agreed
I would like to suggest Carson, one Geovany Soto for reasons number 2 (really low BABIP in 08), 4 (11th round pick), his remorseless admiration for the green stuff and subsequent snacking. Not to mention his picture next to the term “plarpy” in the dictionary.
that should read really low BABIP in ’09. Gotta have Blanks too, for like 285 reasons
Scott McClain. All those minor league HRs and bad luck being stuck behind Ripken and then being “too old.” When he hit his first big league homer in 2008 at age 35, I cried. Seriously.
“1. An MLB player whose advanced metrics (i.e. EqA, wOBA, VORP, UZR – really anything that attempts to improve upon AVG, HR, and RBIs) suggest greater production than is commonly perceived.”
JD Drew should be the captain of this team. If he wasn’t made of glass he may have had have had a borderline Hall of Fame career, and fans/MSM would brand you a lunatic for saying that.
That’s like saying that if a glass football wasn’t made out of glass, it would be a great football to toss around though.
With that said, as a Red Sox fan I am still hoping Drew becomes a borderline HOF player by an amazing season where he rakes and plays in every single game this year, has a dominating postseason, fixes the US health care system, and hits a home run for a child with cancer that not only fulfills his wish but also cures his cancer. But I’d settle for a year like last year.
“That’s like saying that if a glass football wasn’t made out of glass, it would be a great football to toss around though.”
No, it’s not like that at all.
Unless we’re talking about a different Bill Lee, Jim Abbott and Satchel Paige than the ones I am thinking of, somebody’s lost the thread. I’m assuming we’re talking current players.
My nominee is Angel Pagan.
Heartily second that pagan pick. His peripherals really stand out to me…but I haven’t heard squat about him getting more PT in the Mets outfield. Not really following “The Contest” but I suppose holding back a young talent qualifies, eh?
When you’re in fantasy land, what’s the point of consistency?
Good point
Oh, and fair enough, I was just in a daze due to the Mark Fidrych name-check. I’ll pull some current suggestions together too.
The most baseball joy I ever saw was on the face of a player I never liked: Jeff Kent, October 18, 2004. The all-time all-joy team would have to have Puckett in center, wouldn’t it?
I’d like to nominate Jayson Werth. It took near divine intervention for him to just make the NL AS team last year where he was the 2nd or 3rd best OF (depending on your take of Justin Upton in 2009. I’d call them roughly the same).
Like the Worth pick.
For me, it’s Franklin Gutierrez, although his play last year took him out of the part-timer category. But the joy of seeing a certain double turn into a fly-out (and, man, it happened so, so many times) is incredible.
Wazzup Sherps!
I could see JD Drew and/or Robinson Cano appearing on this team.
I think these two guys are the exact OPPOSITE of what I’d be looking for on this roster.
I’m voting for Nick Swisher. He takes a ridiculous amount of pitches, plays a decent RF, and has an infectious personality. That shiny 0.00 career ERA doesn’t hurt either.
I second this so hard. He must be made up entirely of some sort of smile-inducing substance, and I say this about a guy who has played for both of my least favorite teams. (And, yes, the 0.00 ERA. I swear 2009 was the baseball gods’ revenge on me for not doing the blog I was thinking about doing…)
Wait, what? I get the Yanks, but the A’s? I don’t see the connection. Are you a Giants fan? Or do you just hate over-achieving clubs who don’t over-achieve any more.
For me to pick a NYY really takes something special. Can I pick him as an A?
For other players, being on the Yankees roster should preclude them from appearing on this one.
SETH SMITH! SETH SMITH!
Absolutely.
seconding this. a year ago ryan spilborghs would have been in the exact same boat, outfielders putting up a .407 obp in 2008 in limited playing time.
If you’re using the joy on a player’s face, then Spilborghs’ expression as he sprinted round the bases after hitting his 14th inning walkoff Grand Slam last season must qualify him!
I nominate Joey Votto for reason number five. He was one of the only bright spots for the Reds last year. Plus, he’s had such a hard run of it that seeing him succeed makes me happy in a warm-fuzzy-overly-sentimental kind of way.
Plus, he can rake and his WPA is ridiculous for someone who missed as much time as he did.
The only possible thing excluding Votto is overqualification. He might be too good!
Coincidentally, I just read that D.Dombrowski wants Ryan Raburn to be a full-time OF next year, and curiosity in Raburn was the reason I came to FG just now, only to find this article. Ryan Raburn would have to be on this list.
“the presence of a heated rivalry provides an extent narrative that ensures drama and creates an atmosphere of excitement.”
I think you mean “extant”.
Crap. Duly noted. And edited.
Brian Giles. There’s no way he’ll be that bad again.
Oooh, maybe he’ll improve by 3 wins and be…below average.
Seriously, -1.6 WAR? That’s unbelievable(especially from a guy who hadn’t previously posted a below average wRC+ in his career).
There was a time I’d have been “all in” on Giles – an extremely exciting player to watch. That time ended about 5 years ago.
all-time: Kirk Gibson
current: Mike Cameron
Gotta have Franklin Gutierrez….How about Ricky Nolasco (over a 5 ERA but a 3.35 FIP) as one of your starters?
Nolasco, great pick.
Gutierrez has become too mainstream/high profile to my mind for this roster.
this sounds like a very japanese exercise to me, assembling the team with the most “joy.”
I would nominate shelly “smash” duncan under criteria 3
Gotta have room for Fernando Valenzuela.
Have to put JJ Hardy on the list. Aside from his rough 2009 (which, luck adjusted, actually wasn’t that bad) he’s been a top 5 shortstop, period, and gets no credit either for his outstanding defense (which is effective without being flashy) or his great offense.
Casey Kotchman (the former top prospect who has seen nothing but part-time duty in recent years) and Allen Craig (Cards minor leaguer who, despite tearing up the minor leagues the past couple years and being the minor league player of the year last year, is unlikely to get any consideration for a spot on the major league roster in the next couple years) are on my all-joy team. Russ Branyan was on my all-joy team last year and he brought a lot of joy in the form of lot of really long home runs.
My All time Roster Right Here (Bear with my White Sox bias)
C-Joe Mauer- Sideburns will get you everywhere. And the OBP will do the rest
1B-Frank Thomas- Favorite player to watch hit ever
2B-Jayson Nix – Wanted to see him and his UZR start at 2nd last year so bad
SS-Gordon Beckham – 1st minor leaguer I ‘called’ since getting hard core into following the minors. Gonna be a SS someday. Maybe.
3B-Robin Ventura- Favorite Player ever, guy played great defense, and hit a walk off in the 10th inning of my first game. Those 7 year old memories stick.
LF- Nick Swisher – If only we’d given you a chance
CF-Franklin Gutierrez – Outfield range is sexy
RF-Ichiro- The only slappy fast guy I’ve ever really liked
DH- Adam Dunn- Home runs are sexy
C- Dioner Navarro- .233 BABIP? Awww…
C-Tyler Flowers- I’m ready to trade Pierzynski when you are, KW
1B- Nick Johnson – You down with OBP? Yeah you know me.
2B- Ian Kinsler – 4.6 WAR with a .245 BABIP? Amazing.
OF- Curtis Granderson- I’m so glad the Tigers dumped you. I’m so sad the Yankees got you.
OF- Alex Rios – That BABIP can’t last, plus the D’s gonna be great in 2010.
SP- Mark Buehrle- Great at everything except throwing a baseball fast
SP- Tim Lincecum – Pot Joke Pot Joke K Rate Pot Joke
SP – Javier Vazquez – Glad we traded him… /sarcasm/Tyler Flowers better be good
SP- Ricky Nolasco- E-F of 1.71. And he has to play for the Marlins.
SP- Brian Bannister- For embracing the stats I love much, even if they confirm that you’re not that good
RP- Jose Contreras- For starting the Cuban Pipeline, and for 2005-2006
RP- Jim Bouton – Because Ball Four is one of my favorite books ever.
RP- Matt Thornton- How is he not a closer yet? Not that I don;t mind using a great RP in the 7th or 8th inning.
RP- Hoyt Wilhelm- how cool is the Knuckleball?
RP-Tim Wakefield- Cool enough to get 2 guys on my team
May I humbly submit one Ben Zobrist for the ruling of the courts?
Zobrist defines the criteria; good call.
Mickey Tettleton. The teams he played for never seemed to appreciate him, but he was incredibly productive…and his nickname was “Froot Loop” after his pregame meal ritual…
Tettleton is an obvious choice, other than him guys like Max Carey, Ted Simmons, Joe Torre (the player), Gene Tenanace, Bobby Gritch, Cesar Cedeno, and Jimmy Wynn come to mind too. As far as current players I’d like to submit Chipper Jones’ name. Depending on where you rank Alex Rodriguez (as a third basemen or a shortstop) Chipper Jones is arguably a top three third basemen of all time. Surely one of the 100 best players of all time, and yet he gets no recognition for how truly great he is.
I would submit for consideration that, although J.D. Drew is an incredibly undervalued player, and as one of the commenters suggested, in all probability the captain of Carson’s All-Joy team, there is little joy actually to be derived by watching him play. He is simply a very boring player. I say this with heavy bias, as a Red Sox fan who has watched him repeatedly strike out, walk, and ground to second base with a runner on third. That said, for this All-Joy squad, I think some preference should be given to players who are actually exciting to watch AND have good peripherals. Is that possible to measure? I don’t know. But I wouldn’t go to a baseball game to see J.D. Drew. In fact, I would feel comfortable going to the bathroom or getting a hot dog while he’s batting.
Dirk Hayhurst
Chris “Disco” Hayes
So, i just ran a multiple regression for VORP on HR, RBI, and AVG (all from Baseball Prospectus for 2009). Below are the top 12 in terms of positive residuals:
Joe Mauer 53.3135
Derek Jeter 48.0400
Hanley Ramirez 46.4703
Albert Pujols 44.2068
Ichiro Suzuki 37.1158
Jason Bartlett 36.6852
Pablo Sandoval 32.9335
Ryan Braun 28.0527
David Wright 26.8699
Michael Bourn 26.1928
Chase Utley 25.9333
Ben Zobrist 25.8396
One of these things is not like the other. The Bourn Identity, indeed. I’ll check the data, but that’s my suggestion if it’s correct.
I mostly going by #5 but also players that bring me joy-
Eric Byrnes, Swisher, Eckstein, Utley, anyone with a mustache (Brendan Ryan), Chipper, Moyer, Wakefield, any of Maddux’s personal catchers especially Eddie Perez, Gio Gonzalez, John Rocker, Francoeur (cuz it’s funny watching him bat), Mark Wohlers
First off, I’m really starting to like Carson’s articles. They were a little weird at first, but once you get used to his style they are really fun.
Here’s some of the guys I’d nominate in no particular order:
Jack Cust- team captain?
Wily Mo Pena- I don’t think I’m the only one who’s had a healthy man crush on him.
Tim Lincecum
JP Howell
Francisco Liriano
Javy Vazquez
Roy Halladay
Matt Wieters
Nick Johnson
Marco Scutaro
Brett Gardner
Ben Zobrist
Franklin Guiterrez
Brandon Wood
Funny nicknames like Kung Fu Panda (Disco Hayes was already posted and I didn’t know about Froot Loop Tettleton).
People who do things you can imitate and other people know who you are geturing about.
In childhood there were El Tiante and the strobe-light stretch movement and looking at the sky, or Joe Morgan and the elbow twitch. Most of the sort of thing the camera focuses on for batters and pitchers, but my current one would be Brandon Inge jumping and clicking his heels together at his 3B position.
In the Old Timers category, following up on Gilbert’s excellent criteria, how about John Wockenfuss, with one of the coolest batting stances ever.
Manny…he might be a wack job, but he loves hitting and it’s a joy to watch him do it.
OK, same deal as above but for pitchers: multiple regression for VORP on wins, saves, and ERA. Here are the top 20 positive residuals:
Zack Greinke 43.7508
Tim Lincecum 37.7764
Clayton Kershaw 33.6209
Chad Fox 32.0954
Matt Cain 31.9316
Dan Haren 31.0139
Chris Carpenter 30.9567
Jair Jurrjens 30.9362
Roy Halladay 27.7377
Javier Vazquez 26.9047
Randy Wolf 26.8046
Adam Wainwright 25.2443
Cliff Lee 25.1402
Felix Hernandez 22.9982
George Sherrill 21.9177
J.A. Happ 21.3855
Jeremy Affeldt 21.1943
Kiko Calero 20.8667
Josh Johnson 20.3231
Wandy Rodriguez 18.9744
OK, Chad Fox has got to be comgin from a problem with the data, unless I’m missing something here. But Kiko Calero in the Top 20 is a nice pick. I wouldn’t normally pick him above Josh Johnson. :-)
Boomer, can describe the significance of these numbers — and of multiple regression — briefly? My guess is that what you’ve just done is really useful as way of identifying Category One-type players, but I need it described to me as if I were a child.
Thanks.
Let me give it a shot. This is a challenge, so forgive me if it seems confusing at first.
Regression basically uses least-squares to fit a line to the data such that the line reflects a minimum level of total errors (where errors are deviations from the actual to the predicted outputs, e.g. if Mauer’s actual VORP is 50 and the model predicts it as 30, there is an error of +20). Regression then will use the explanatory variables (in the case of the batting analysis above: HR, RBI, AVG) to see how much each variable contributes to the dependent variable (in this case, VORP). Anything that is in the error term (also called the “residual”) is variability not explained by the explanatory variables.
So, if Mauer has a residiual of +20 on a VORP of 50 regressed on HR, RBI, and AVG, 30 of his VORP is explained by those three factors and 20 is not and is due to something else. I thought this analysis would be a good example of case 1 in your post, as players with large positive residuals have a lot of their value in things besides “standard” stats.
The results are interesting, in that even superstar players (who we know are great) aren’t just great because they hit a lot of HRs, have high BA, or drive in a lot of RBI.
More info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis
Hope this helps. If not, I’m happy to try again or have someone else jump in and take a crack. Clear as mud, I know.
And no smartass should bring up cointegration or heteroskedasdicity. I know they are both likely conditions in the data, but I’m trying to keep my baseball workload manageable.
BTW, I am going to try and do the same analysis for minor league players, but I need to calculate VORP for the players in the data, which will be some in-depth work. So it won’t be ready by Thursday but I’ll post it when I get it anyway.
Three things:
1. Description’s perfect. Good work, sir.
2. If anyone starts mouthing off about cointegration or heteroskedasdicity, you just send’em this way, Boomer.
3. Would this be more difficult or the same difficult to run with WAR or RAR? It’s no big deal; I’m just worried that David Appelman might assassinate you if you keep mentioning VORP on his site.
Thanks again,
Cistulli
Thanks. I am only using VORP since it comes nicely packaged with targeted player data from Baseball Prospectus for free. I’d prefer WAR but I couldn’t find a easy way to get it pre-linked to the player data I wanted and nothing else. In other words, I’m too lazy.
I will try the same thing with the fangraphs data when I have time to wade through it. I don’t expect a major difference in results though.
ok, some of my current favorites…
Justin Upon
Joey Votto
Mariano Rivera
Adam Dunn
Ichiro
Granderson
Sizemore
Ben Sheets (3 years ago)
Lincecum
Jose Reyes (2 years ago)
Prince Fielder
and i’d like to call it the Turk Wendell All-stars!
On the flip-side you could have the Steve Trachsel All-Stars.
One more:
Milton Bradley
Talk about being worth more than widely perceived / having much higher upside than expected performance.
I second Bradley, if only due to his under-ratedness. He had a bad year, and the media rode him, but the year was just below average for him. It wasn’t even an awful year, by any means. Plus, if your choice of je ne sais quoi includes charging up to the announcer’s booth on occasion- he’s got that too.
Pablo Sandoval, definitely on my list. That guy is easily one of the most enjoyable players in baseball to watch. There’s something about a huge guy that hammers AND hustles that is just amazing. At face value, it’s hard to expect how well he plays. He hacks at all manner of things, he looks way too big to field his position, but then somehow everything he does just works out somehow.
Also, he’s a guy that is clearly not being captured quite right even by advanced stats. There’s no other way to explain a man of his size holding a BABIP of .356 (which is in line with his minor league numbers). If anyone can explain how Panda can maintain even a 30 pt advantage on BABIP over league average, I’m curious (because he had 0.34 in minors, without the outlandish LD %).