The All Minor League Contract Team
We’re a couple of weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and by now, most free agents have figured out where they’ll be going during spring training. Some may be rolling up in more expensive clothes than they had last year, thanks to a shiny new contract they signed this winter. Today, though, I’m more interested in the guys who will be recycling last year’s digs – the ones who come to camp with non-guaranteed contracts and will spend March fighting for a job on a big league roster. Let’s take a look at what kind of team could have been assembled this winter without handing out a single Major League contract. Essentially, these guys are the NRI All-Stars.
Position: Player – Marcel Forecasted wOBA/FIP
Catcher: Gregg Zaun – .310 wOBA
First Base: Casey Kotchman – .304 wOBA
Second Base: Adam Kennedy – .310 wOBA
Shortstop: Adam Everett – .278 wOBA
Third Base: Felipe Lopez – .323 wOBA
Left Field: Laynce Nix – .323 wOBA
Center Field: Lastings Milledge – .321 wOBA
Right Field: Jeremy Hermida – .315 wOBA
Bench: Josh Bard (.286 wOBA), Willie Harris (.316 wOBA), Gabe Kapler (.316 wOBA), Travis Buck (.309 wOBA), Kevin Frandsen (.295 wOBA), Jason Giambi (.326 wOBA)
Starting Pitcher: Freddy Garcia – 4.52 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Micah Owings – 4.48 FIP
Starting Pitcher: J.D. Martin – 4.70 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Jeff Suppan – 4.83 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Rodrigo Lopez – 4.98 FIP
Bullpen: Dana Eveland (4.08 FIP), Andrew Miller (4.11 FIP), Nate Robertson (4.47 FIP), Mark Hendrickson (4.58 FIP), Chad Gaudin (4.60 FIP), Fernando Nieve (4.77 FIP)
Obviously, this team isn’t a contender. The offense is lousy, the starting pitching is full of back-end starters who wouldn’t be able to work deep into games, and the bullpen is a bunch of guys with big platoon splits, so there’s no good choice for a closer. This would almost certainly be the worst team in baseball. But how bad would they be?
Using weighted averages, the offense projects out to about a .310 wOBA, which is actually better than eight teams posted a year ago. But this assumes that everyone would stay healthy and they wouldn’t have to rely on any other players listed besides the 14 position players we cherry picked from the free agent pool, which is an unreasonable assumption. We can reasonably drop the team wOBA projection down to .300 or so to account for the playing time of fill-ins.
Defensively, this team looks okay. The infield defense would be average or maybe even a tick above that, while the outfielders would be a bit below average but not disastrous. With Kapler and Harris getting work as defensive substitutions and some decent gloves in Kotchman, Kennedy, Everett, and Nix, I’d be comfortable calling this a roughly average defensive team. A .300ish wOBA and average defense would equal out to around +10 WAR for the position players. Basically, it’s the 2010 Astros with slightly better hitting.
On the pitching side of the ledger, the performance of the guys on the roster isn’t so bad (a weighted average of about a 4.62 FIP), but because they can’t be counted on for significant quantity of innings, we’d have to fill out the staff with hundreds of innings of inferior pitchers. That pushes the overall estimated FIP into the 4.75 range, which is worst in the league range. The Diamondbacks had a +4.76 FIP last year, for instance, and were the worst pitching staff by a pretty good margin. But that was still good enough to be worth +7.5 WAR.
All told, our NRI All-Star team looks like they’d be worth somewhere in the +15 to +20 WAR range. We shouldn’t be surprised that these guys are a bit better than replacement level, considering that we’re hand selecting the best 25 guys we could find from the entire population of guys who are generally considered for those kinds of roles. Beyond that, several of these guys don’t fit the classic definition of freely available talent, as their contracts call for higher-than-minimum salaries once they are placed on a big league roster. This group would cost more than the baseline of around $11 million that it would take to pay a 25 man roster.
That said, I do find it somewhat interesting how not-totally-awful this team would be. A projected +15 to +20 WAR would put them in the 61-66 win range, so while they’d be among the worst teams in the league, they probably wouldn’t threaten historical records of futility. They’d also be historically cheap, as there are no scouting or player development costs associated with putting this roster together, and the total payroll (even with all the needed fill-ins) would be under $25 million.
Bottom line – if your team isn’t doing better than the projected performance of the guys listed above, then you’re doing something wrong.
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don’t show this to the owners of the Royals or Pirates. it could just become their new “strategy” to field fiscally responsible teams while continuing to pocket their share of the Yankees’ luxury taxes.
1999 called, it wants its outdated argument back.
He’s a Nats fan, its the first time he’s ever been able to say it
Quick quiz:
1. What’s the Pirates’ share of the Yankees’ luxury taxes?
If you answered “zero,” then you know the difference between the luxury tax and revenue sharing. You win the right to open your mouth without looking like a moron.
Silly question (so maybe someone can respond without the snark)… Aren’t luxury taxes redistributed to teams that are under the tax threshold?
Do the Pirates not get a portion of any luxury tax money? (whether it’s Yankees or whoever is over the threshold). If not where does the money go?
Not a silly question at all, Hank; this is a great detailed explanation by Kristi Dosh.
Here’s the key relevant paragraph:
“Distributions remain roughly the same and continued the trend towards funding player benefits with the tax money. The first $2.5m is set aside for refunds [on revenue sharing miscalculations, I think], then 75% for player benefits and 25% to the Industry Growth Fund. Thus, the tax is not distributed to low revenue clubs.”
Besides the revenue sharing/luxury tax confusion, another source of the confusion is that in the 1996 CBA $7m of the luxury tax did go to low-revenue teams, but that was changed with the 2002 CBA.
Now, revenue sharing does get distributed to lower-revenue teams, and we can go back and forth about whether the Pirates are pocketing that (short answer: I think their books show they aren’t doing anything wrong, and their current low payroll is due to responsible decisions to concentrate on the farm and young players). But the difference between revenue sharing and luxury tax is important here because the luxury tax is the one that is paid almost exclusively by the Yankees. So when people like the original commenter start snarking about the Pirates pocketing the Yankees’ luxury tax money, they’re confused, and they certainly aren’t going to be in a position to have an intelligent discussion about whether the Pirates are making responsible decisions about their payroll.
Oh, links barely show up in my browser on this site; there’s a link to the Kristi Dosh post in the word “this” in my first paragraph (and I’ll post it again: link).
I find you have to code bold tags around any anchor tags (aka links) to make them stand out. It’s something I wish they’d change in the stylesheet here, but I just live with it rather than nag them about it.
Very cool piece. Definitely surprised at how good they look on paper for under 25mil. Just don’t show this to Loria…
Loria is an evil genius. He doesn’t have to be shown it; he’s well aware of it already (heck, he practically invented it). But don’t bother him right now: he’s busy trying to pick more pockets for stadium money.
that WAR/$ ratio is fantastic! it’s everything the pirates wish they could be!
It seems to raise an interesting question though. If you can build a team that is 15-20 wins above replacement by signing guys who are (by a lay definition) replacement level players, what should we take away from that?
Is replacement level too high?
Are certain skills being undervalued/ignored by the market? (defense)
Are certain skills valued by the market not incorporated in to the WAR model? (pitcher reliability)
While I certainly understand where replacement level comes from and recognize the difference between the technical definition and what we see here, it’s this reality that causes the general fan to question things like WAR. Not a problem per se’, but something to think about.
If you take the top 10 percent of any population, your’e going to come out with an average that looks better than the population median. We’ve essentially picked one or two players at each position, but not all 30 teams can share one or two players. The pool of replacement level players is much larger than this, and generally, not this good.
If you look at the performance of all players who are treated as replacement level types, you’ll see that it’s pretty much in line with what we use as a baseline.
good point. I was wondering the same thing as Rick.
Given the dearth of depth at the position, I’m surprised at how solid the catching appears.
As an M’s fan, I’m convinced that Marcel’s been smoking the old banana peels with that Kotchman projection. I’d take Giambi at 1st first, even if he can’t play the position. Scratch that. I’d take Micah Owings at first base instead. I’m absolutely convinced he would outhit Kotchman.
Low-risk, low-reward players are the new market inefficiency!
Does it make me sad that, as a Marlins fan, I’m desperately hoping that Milledge signs with them? Chris Coghlin, I remember when you were exciting and not a worry-burden.
Too late, Milledge to the Pale Hose.
Milledge signed with the White Sox.
So….screwed then?
awesome article. Most creative All _______ Team ever supposed.
Unwatchable
Very unwatchable team. Although watching Micah Owings bat is generally fun. But as far as an article concept, pretty darn good.
Yes, very nice article. (Though you could toss Jose Veras into the bullpen — his Marcel is 4.25.)
What conclusion should I draw when Dave, by dumpster diving, puts together a team that is quite possibly better than the Pirates, Royals, Astros, or Mariners?
Fail. You’re comparing reality to projections. Regress all of those rosters and they’re better than their respective records. Not to mention that an optimistic outcome would be roughly 50% of these players coming anywhere near regression. Maybe at the end of the season, we can regress all the W-L records, then simulate the WS. That would be cool!
Were guys that are still free agents considered for this or only guys that agreed to minor league deal only? I only ask because mlbtraderumors still shows guys like Willy Aybar, Russell Branyan, Eckstein, Hank Blalock and Ryan Church as being out there. Some of those guys might be better than the above, although I haven’t compared their projections.
Shouldn’t Juan Cruz be in the bullpen? Marcel has him with a 4.08 FIP. It does have him appear in only 32 games and 33 innings. Is that why he is not on the team?
the outfielders would be a bit below average but not disastrous
I’m a Milledge defender and wish the Pirates had kept him (or at least managed to bring him back as an NRI), but as a CF he seems pretty disastrous to me. UZR/150 has him at -8 with the majority of his time spent in a corner rather than CF.
completely agree. are FA’s taken into account?
surely Blalock is more valuable than Kotchman….. right?
-w
certainly. Marcel has Blalock at a .321 wOBA
FA’s must not have been counted
Enough with the Pirates bashing already.
Pirates general manager Neal Huntington inherited a mess in late 2007 — a mediocre and aging core of veteran players at the major league level, but very little in the minors — and proceeded to rebuild from the ground up. Half of the Pirates’ starting position players for 2011 — all of whom are well above replacement level so far — were promoted from the minors within the last two years. In addition, at least two of their top 3 starting pitchers, and their top two bullpen options, are in their pre-arb years or in their 1st year of arbitration eligibility. These players will naturally be relatively inexpensive due to service time.
Going into the offseason, the Pirates’ biggest needs were a starting pitcher or two and a better shortstop. Did anyone really think that Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, or Derek Jeter would sign with them? The Pirates couldn’t even get Jorge De La Rosa or Carl Pavano to sign, but not for the lack of trying. Instead, their top free agent signings were Kevin Correia, Lyle Overbay, and Matt Diaz.
The 2010 Pirates’ record was marred in part by the utter collapse of three of their nine opening day starters (Clement, LaRoche, Iwamura; four if you count SP Zach Duke). Of those four, only Clement remains in the org, and he will not start in 2011. I certainly hope the Pirates’ marginal free agent signings this offseason will help. However, I am dead certain that the absence of Clement, LaRoche, and Iwamura (and full seasons from Alvarez, Walker, and Tabata) will improve the Pirates’ record in 2011.
The only real bashing of the Pirates I see here is being done by reality, as you aptly summarized (I gave you a green + vote, too). phoenix2042′s comment may be un-called-for, but it also borders (uncomfortably) on truth.
A lot of these guys have performed poorly in the minor leagues for various amounts of time over the past few years. If Marcel considered minor league performance–which it doesn’t–many of these guys would project worse than they do now.
How do you think this list changes now that Jimmy Edmonds signed a minor league contract with the Cards? I’d take Edmonds over Milledge in a heartbeat.
Edmonds — .333 wOBA Marcel projection.
Dave, Quick hitter WAR question,
I get -65.5 runs between batting and position, then +180 runs for replacement. If fielding = 0, then total runs = 114.5? or about 11.5 WAR.
But that all assumes a 6000 PA team….did you just round off the total or where did I go wrong?
Batting: (.300-.328)/1.15*6000
Position: 2.5+2.5+7.5-12.5-7.5-7.5+2.5-17.5+12.5
Replacement: 20*9
Er, wait,
The NL average wOBA is probably under the MLB average of .328….
And how much better is this team if we assume that someone could buy out Matt Murton’s contract from Hanshin?
I think if the best thing you can say about them is that they wouldn’t be historically bad then they better be an epansion team or they are drawing 750,000 fans.
Wait, replacement level is now 46 wins?
I always thought it to be a .300 winning percentage
They team above would beat the 2010 Ms in a best of 7 series….
And the Ms front office IS smart….
Owings could probably double-dip as the team’s DH against AL teams and be better than most of those guys on the bench.
Owings’ career wOBA: .365. An obviously small sample size, but heck, I’m thinking cleanup.
Interesting article. However I would argue that 100 losses in a season would be an awful team. In any case was still a good read.
I would want Chris Ray in my bullpen.
What a scrappy infield…
I’d like to see how this team compares to the unsigned free agents too. Imagine a weekend series. Would Dave Trembley get to manage?